A quick review of important economic news: as the Israelis rush us towards the Apocalypse, we must also keep an eye on the Derivatives Beast and its adventures here. China is preparing to replace the US as the major world trading/currency power. This is inevitable, of course. They wanted this back in the mid-1980’s when the leadership finally figured out how international trade and the floating currency business operates. Just as other groups exploited this flawed, stupid system, the Chinese have mastered it and now, are preparing to take control of it.


China’s foreign-exchange reserves dropped for the first time in five years as a result of the global financial crisis, Market News International reported, citing Cai Qiusheng, head of the investment management bureau under the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

The current figure must be lower than the peak of about $1.9 trillion, Cai told a trade forum in Beijing over the weekend, the English-language wire service said. He didn’t specify which period he was referring to or give a figure.

When it ballooned to $2 trillion and global amounts ballooned to over $4 trillion, the US should have taken this as a warning sign.  Always, these things are symbols, not actual things.  They delineate what is going on.  They are clues.  What is a ‘clue’, anyway?


This is from a very ancient story about the Minotaur and the Maze.  The ‘clue’ was a literally a ball of thread. If you followed it, you could find your way out of the Maze after fighting the Minotaur.  The Minotaur had these horns which we also call ‘the horns of Dilemma’.  The horns where we are trapped.  Like in, from a frying pan into the fire sort of traps.  The sudden upsurge in global FOREX reserves holding more and more dollars was a warning sign.  This showed us clearly that the free trade nonsense was causing such disorders and imbalances, the only way to keep it going was for all our traders to hold more and more dollars in their FOREX reserves!


The IMF knows this.  It tracks this and could see how, after the latest ‘free trade’ rounds, the US was in such dire straits, the only way to keep trade growing was for ALL nations that trade with the US to hold tremendous debts and dollars.  This is now collapsing. If China is unwinding its dollar-FOREX reserves, Japan is also doing this.  And all other nations are now doing this.  Just like the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade, this unwinding is vast and powerful.  The force behind it is growing, not weakening.  


Right now, the biggest trade surplus nations who are losing trade with the US are unwinding this FX mess slowly and carefully.  But it has its own force!  Soon, this tiny leakage will open up a bigger and bigger hole in the dam holding back many trillions of US dollars parked in many FX funds across the planet. When this dam suddenly gives way, all world trade will cease, totally.  We are far from finding the bottom here.  We are at the beginning, not the end, of this collapse.


Senior official: Renminbi likely to be used as currency for forex reserves_English_Xinhua


China’s currency, Renminbi, is likely to join other international currencies to be used for forex reserves by other economies, according to Wu Xiaoling, former vice governor of the country’s central bank and now the deputy head of the financial and economic committee under the top legislature.

    Wu made the remarks in her article carried by the latest annual issue of the leading business magazine Caijing.

    Wu wrote that China should make preparations in its economic structure and its financial regime for its currency to be internationalized….In China’s neighboring countries, there were calls for the yuan to be used to settle bilateral trade payments, she said. China has signed settlement agreements with eight neighboring countries, including Russia, Mongolia, Vietnam and Myanmar, assuming a voluntarily choice of settlement currency, she added.


Asia, by far and away, holds the most FX dollars.  And they can’t restrain the flow any longer.  Money is like liquid stuff: it has to flow.  It can evaporate.  It can stagnate.  It can rush forwards.  It can turn red.  It has many characteristics of not only water, but is intimately tied to sex and emotions.  There are many romantics out on the internet who are convinced that if we cling to the golden rock, we would not have panics or depressions.  


Gold has nothing to do with any of that. Nor does it prevent wars.  Far from it!  It does stop INFLATION.  Inflation, though, is only one of the dire goddesses in the Cave of Wealth and Death.  Depression is actually the worse sister goddess.  She spawns wars and revolutions as well as killing and starving millions of people.  She has been forgotten for a while due to global inflation caused by the US producing too much ‘liquidity’, i.e., allowing everyone to make debts with dollars so long as Asian traders held enough of these debt dollars in sacred FOREX temples. 


This is what is now collapsing.  After the borrowers in the US began to default.  After the US banking system cracked up and crashed.  After the Japanese carry trade abruptly ended in the summer of 2007.  All these things are happening because the liquidity of the present system is no longer being dammed up in Asia.  It is now flowing downhill.  And downhill is into the new dark pool: ZIRP. 


The Chinese recognize this ZIRP system for what it really is: the only way for the West and Japan to transform depression into inflation.  How is that?


Simple!  If the central banks give away money and we only have to pay the principal and even not that, we can borrow to infinity!  This will regain us the waters that used to flow from the banks of Japan and the US into our own pockets!  We get inflation back!  Of course, this will be total inflation.  And this is where gold does step in: it expresses inflation early on.  The dollar is falling while gold and oil are both climbing.  


Gold does NOT reflect inflation.  It reflects fear.  But oil: it IS inflation!  All global inflation surges always appear in public in oil.  Unlike assets and stocks which reflect the ease of gaining loans so one can spend future money today, oil doesn’t depend at all on the money supply!


This is MOST IMPORTANT: people think inflation comes from money making via lending.  To a small extent, it does.  But if major banks can squirrel away trillions of trade dollars in FOREX reserves, we have no inflation.  But when OIL goes up in price, all of these central banks  and trade economies must buy oil at higher and higher prices.  Since oil prices trigger prices of all energy products to rise from coal to wood to gas, etc, this means all systems needing energy to function will either see profits fall or prices rise and this triggers an economic tornado like the one we saw last year.


To raise the price of oil is easy as pie: create war tensions in the Gulf and Middle East.  Have countries in the ‘stans’ of Eurasia go crazy.  This causes oil prices to shoot upwards.  Russia wants this and is supplying military equipment for this purpose.  And then there is Israel: they chose this moment, when oil was super-cheap, to launch a new war.  The price of oil is now climbing!


Britain’s GDP will decline at fastest pace since the 1940s – Business News, Business – The Independent


The UK economy looks set to contract at its fastest pace since the 1940s next year, according to a report by an independent group of economists.


The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) expects the UK’s gross domestic product to decline by 2.9 per cent in real terms over the next year, the biggest annual fall since 1946, when the country faced mass de-mobilisation after the Second World War. Business investment – forecast to collapse by more than 15 per cent in 2009 – is pegged to pose the biggest risk to the economy while household expenditure is expected to fall by 1.8 per cent in the New Year.


The slow death of England beginning in 1914, continues.  After a century, by 2014, England will be one of the planet’s basket case countries.  This is the fate of all global empires when they dumb down.  Instead of facing reality in 1919, England sought to dominate the earth, again!  The empire expanded. And collapsed from 1936-1970.  One by one, all the provinces were either freed or fell to invaders from other, stronger empires.  Instead of facing reality, the British made up propaganda stories about how they were fighting for ‘freedom’ when they were really fighting to keep populations enslaved by Britain, just for example.


Or, as a global empire, they pretended their war with Germany was a big, mean Germany attacking a small, valiant island. Rather than Germany attacking the world’s biggest empire.  The US uses this sort of childish propaganda, too.  ‘Why are people attacking us?’ we whine.  ‘We aren’t doing anything evil.’


Well, today, yet again, a nation subsidized and armed by the US is blowing up barely armed civilians in Gaza just like we are doing in Afghanistan.


Vietnam’s central bank devalued the dong by 3 percent to help exporters after the Southeast Asian economy expanded at the slowest pace in nine years and the trade deficit widened.

The State Bank of Vietnam fixed the reference rate at 16,989 dong per dollar, versus 16,494 yesterday, according to its Web site. Policy makers maintained a currency band that allows the dong to rise or fall 3 percent a day, said Nguyen Quang Huy, director of the regulator’s foreign-exchange department.


Everyone is trying to weaken their currencies.  But if oil is beginning to climb again, this can be fatal.  Hyperinflation is obvious, isn’t it?  We are in a duality world now: everything will be either hyperinflation or ZIRP.  This yin/yang mess means there will be increasing instability and wider and wider spreads between trade partners as well as chaos in banking.


Economy ‘on knife-edge’ as Japan faces deflation fear – Times Online


Japan’s economy — the second-largest in the world and a barometer of global consumer demand — was described yesterday as being “on a knife-edge” amid fears that it might plummet into deflation within months.

The warnings, which come from senior private sector economists and from the Japanese Government, follow a Boxing Day release of dismal industrial, consumer and employment data.

Within hours of passing a record 88 trillion yen (£660 billion) budget, senior government sources told The Times that Japan would “inevitably” be forced to adopt new measures to halt the meltdown. The country’s spiraling economic crisis arises primarily from the sudden halt in American consumption and the acute slowdown in the flow of components and goods throughout Asia. The strong yen has savaged the competitiveness of Japanese goods such as cars and electronics at a critical moment.


japan can’t cope with a strong yen.  The Chinese are satisfied with this response.  Most news services don’t review the obvious past: in July, 2007, Japan and the other G7 nations were absolutely HOWLING at China to raise the value of the yuan while at the same time, giving Japan a pass when the yen was 120 to the dollar and dropping against the yuan and the euro.  So China decided it was time for the yen to get stronger.  This little detail is ignored by nearly everyone.


The Japanese are desperate for the old status quo.  ‘Liquidity’ in the West depends on the Japanese carry trade.  No one wants to admit this since it wrecks the entire premise and philosophical underpinnings of the entire G7 enterprise!  So everyone pretends to be clueless.  This is a GAME.  Played so the public can’t figure out what is going on here.


BBC NEWS | Europe | Putin says ‘cheap gas era’ ending


Mr Putin said the cost of extracting gas was rising sharply, therefore “the era of cheap energy resources, of cheap gas, is of course coming to an end”.

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) meeting in Moscow has agreed a charter and plans for a permanent base.

Some observers say the GECF may develop into an Opec-style producers’ cartel.

This speculation increased with the news that the charter had been adopted and that GECF leaders had agreed to establish permanent offices in Doha, Qatar….The EU gets 42% of its gas imports from Russia, mostly via pipelines across Ukraine.


Now, not only oil will be a source of headaches, so will gas.  The coal retaining pool spill in Tennessee shows us that all alternative energy systems have risks.  EPA: Rivers high in arsenic, heavy metals after sludge spill –, The sludge is now polluting everything for miles around. 

The agency said it found “several heavy metals” in the water in levels that are slightly above safe drinking-water standards but “below concentrations” known to be harmful to humans.

“The one exception may be arsenic,” the agency said in a letter to an affected community. “One sample of river water out of many taken indicated concentrations that are very high and further investigations are in progress.”

Oh, the spill wasn’t all that bad except for deadly arsenic!  And drinking THAT accumulates over time and kills all living things.  Isn’t that splendid?  The rush to make energy for cooling and heating homes and running our lights has spawned these toxic coal burning plants that also are adding dangerous gases to our atmosphere.  Aren’t we fortunate that the sun has suddenly gone quiet?  


The shale oil production areas are equally toxic.  The waste water pools are so poisonous, the industry has to have faux guns go off to scare away waterfowl who die nearly instantly when they swim in these deadly waters.  Why are we so anxious to destroy this planet?  As the Israelis and Palestinians battle over postage-stamp size plots of land, we are poisoning vast acres of prime planetary systems!  


And this is part of the continuing contradiction of life on our planet.





Filed under .money matters


  1. nah

    mmmm chaos is pretty lame… funny thing about oil wars and scare tactics help oil companies heh funny your all like… And elaine says israel is oilmongering again makes you wonder bout’ all the oilmongering cartels buried in cartels maybe maybe not… seems like with all the uranium available we sure take oil DAMN SERIOUS… and if not oil fuck we take wind power DAMN SERIOUS… o yeah nuclear is dirty stupid high density deep pocket long term energy STUPID BOARING… ever herd’ about the solar hydrogen blimps cruising at 100-200mph thats crafty’
    10 years and hell wel’ have to snorkel’ fer’ energy

  2. nah

    “In effect, there is nothing inherently wrong with fiat money, provided we get perfect authority and god-like intelligence for kings.”


  3. OC


    This is about 1 week after the Japanese announced their consideration of writing off US Treasuries/debt..shit!!! The Chinese is racing to dump Treasuries before the Japanese!!!

    Right when the ME is heating up!!! For those readers from UK, I hope u have made your preps and bought & nail everything u need ‘cos the sterling pound is goin to get a massive hit thanks to Gordo!!

    Oh my God!!! Down the toilet we go a few months from now!!

    Thanks for the heads up, Elaine!!

  4. jeremy/Nashville

    Yes, the oil spill has been all over our news! It is absolutely horrible!

    After hearing the news on television, I always have to come to your site so I can find out whats really going on.

    It is so interesting to keep a watch on what is happening within America and the changes happening with China. Even though we have seen dramatic chnages this year, I think 2009 is going to be horrific.

  5. OC


    All this before 1st Jan and before Obama’s inauguration.

    Me thinks Iran, SA & Russia is in dire straits & need the oil price to go up…so deliberately kick sand into Israel’s face and go the response that they expect and needed to save their sorry arse..and true enough, Israel fell for it!!

    Nothing personal but it seems Israel is losing her touch..she is being manipulated by her enemies…oh dear.. another zombie nation…she can’t afford a single mistake if she wants to stay in ME…

  6. OC’s commnet notwithstanding, the Hamas strategy is a mystery to me. Some info missing?

  7. OC

    On a different track, Mish is reporting US households suffer a total loss of $7 trillion in 2008…

    ‘2009: Already Looking Bleak’

    Holy shit!! What’s 2009 goin to be like??

  8. billibaldi

    I always though Hamas’ strategy was mostly survival because that is victory of a sort. You might have noticed over time the Israelis have had to increase the pressure. They used to be able to use jeeps to go around Gaza, now they use F16s and main battle tanks.

  9. criticalcontrarian

    OC interesting analysis on SA & Russia conning Israel. Here’s one for you, China dropping their $ reserves after calling for an immediate attack on Gaza.
    Pressurizing the U.S. to make Israel back off with a good reason to unload their T-bills before the Japanese. Two birds, one stone.
    The $30 Billion question is, who is the tail and who is the dog? ($30B is the military aid earmarked for Israel by the US over the next 10 years, up 25% from last year) according to Haaretz.

  10. OC


    There is another group of players in this game; the banksters…their losses are covered by TARP & they need to make good their losses eventually. The only play in town is oil & commodities so they will make use of this opportunity…remember the Iranian X’mas message by Channel 4??? Every one of these creeps has a stake in this!!!

  11. GK

    In thinking about which asset classes will survive and engineered inflationary depression the answer is almost none. When fiat money floods the earth and global trade grinds to a halt virtually everything is either worthless or non-profitable.

    Stocks, worthless if the company fails.
    Bonds, worthless if company defaults.
    Dividends, worthless if the company cuts them.
    Gold, worthless if no global trade or seized.
    Farm, worthless if cost greater than food sale price.
    Oil, worthless if cost to extract greater than price due to low demand.

    This is why during the great depression the government burned crops to try to raise prices, even while people are hungry.

    The only thing of value in an inflationary depression is power and monopoly revenue streams for necessities.

    Just as an example of the value of gold vs. power: would you rather be a Palestinian in the Gaza strip with 3000 tons of gold or an Israeli with your citizens running most of the major posts at the top of the US government, like the head of Homeland Security?

    As an example of the value of a farms vs. a monopoly revenue stream: Would you rather own a chicken farm in the USA where eggs costs $4/dozen to grow and sell for $3/dozen or own the monopoly of the road toll system between Mexico and the US where you receive toll payment from trucking companies carrying eggs from Mexico to the US that cost $2/dozen to grow?

    The intersection of Power and Monopoly, such as the Monopoly of money printing and war making and the power to unleash either is of course the apex.

    Monopoly revenue streams are easy to create when you are the government, so watch for the implosion of city/state/federal government to unleash an epic sell-off of roads, water works, and other critical infrastructure to global crime families.

    California is the prize. How long will it be before their state budget has a trillion dollar problem that the Chinese can ‘solve’. Watch it going, going…

    The European crime families will get the NAFTA super-highway so they can ship stuff into New Orleans up into the heartland of the USA and Canada and Mexico that they will own. Israel will get New York and DC since they own those defacto already and will use them to enforce their own version of ‘peace’ in the middle east oil jackpot.

    Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America Union. All owned and controlled by the same interlocking crime families.

    Americans are too fucking stupid to resist and will instead hope for a few plasma TV’s from Asia, BMW’s from Europe, Oil from the Middle East and some cheap food from North American Monsanto terminator seed slave farms will fall upon their head as they dream about being a rock star, CEO, google founder or president someday.

  12. Elaine – Thank-you for this important article. -Ken

  13. From my own standpoint, I just (literally) sent an informed comment to the “agency” (North Carolina Division of Environment and Natural Resources – Division of Air Quality) regarding a proposal to exempt combustion emissions from the NC Air Toxics rule. This proposal is part of an ongoing travesty where the health, safety, and future prosperity of NC citizens seems to be getting shoved into the backseat so that goofy stupido dukie power can burn even more coal. Gracious.
    Anyhow, if I wasn’t involved locally, I’d go crazy!

  14. My comment will be part of the public record, so dammit, I’m making a difference.
    Elaine, I want to particularly thank-you for mentioning the retention pond failure at the coal-plant in TN. I saw a news clip of a family who used to have a wonderful backyard, and now have a landscape that appears to have been overun by a volcano (not quite as bad as Pompei, but pretty miserable nonetheless).
    I sure hope we can stop this coal and oil madness. Coal and oil – old life.

  15. Plus, my heart goes out to the suffering families being bombarded so unjustly. My the Goddesses and Gods have mercy.

  16. May – I meant “may”. What they hey. I pray. Do U?

  17. CK

    A wee bit off topic, the FDIC maintains a list of “troubled” banks. You are not allowed to see this list. The reason you are not allowed to see this list is that if you found your bank on this list you would remove your deposits and close your CDs and so would all the other depositors in your troubled bank. The criteria for being a troubled bank is to have a “Texas ratio” over 100.
    ( Texas ratio is so named because it is used by the banking regulators in Texas to identify troubled banks.) Here is a link to a description of the ratio and its calculation:

    And here is a link to EVERY bank in the USA and its calculated Texas Ratio.
    The rule of thumb is that a ratio over 100 is a sign of degeneracy and a ratio over 50 is a sign of impending trouble. The FDIC is currently claiming that there are about 170 banks on its “watch list.” Enjoy comtemplating the first 170 banks on the above list and if you happen to be a depositor in any of these institutions, it might behoove you to diversify your deposits.

  18. CK

    A correction, the Texas ratio was developed by a private firm as a handy heuristic to evaluate a bank’s ability to handle non performing loans.
    It is just one of the heuristics used by investors and regulators to measure bank strength.

  19. openly hidden

    indulge me please. i am not up to speed on fiat money…. you said: “…If China is unwinding its dollar-FOREX reserves, Japan is also doing this. And all other nations are now doing this….” what does this mean exactly? i understand china literally is not going to “hold” as many dollars, and i understand i think how she got them in the first place, but how is china “unwinding” this? what does that mean exactly help me please… throwing them away? giving them back to us? it doesn’t mean buying american stuff with the dollars china doesn’t want to hold anymore? what can china be buying for a trillon dollars i wonder? i mean, what is literally happening to the dollars foreign nations were holding on to if they aren’t going to do this so much anymore? where are they now? and whats that all mean? it sounds like you say inflation, hyperinflation. which the way i understand things means priced in dollars, commodities for example will be higher but priced in other curriencies, the price will remain the same or lower or not as high?

    i am sorry for being so stupid. to me, money is my cows….my tools….my land….my boy…my pickup truck. and what you all call “money” to me seems “not real”….like it is just a promise and that promise apparently is depending on the kindness of strangers to keep their promises.

    i guess

    and surely that was a joke about aristotle discussing fiat money. not “the” aristotle. it was a joke, an inside joke, right?

  20. Clean slate proposal in response to CK’s incredible links (lots of names there…). Anyhow here it is as simple as I can say it.
    No assets then no debits. Clean slate.
    In a home – own the home (in a proportional way based on debit/asset ratio).
    Don’t have a home – we’ll build one for you. Its profitable.
    Start working on your gardens.
    Continue please with the investigations.
    Let justice be served — liberty could be around the corner…
    Its good to dream.

  21. The proposal might be “out-there-goofy” and of course, implementation of a clean slate obviously is much easier said then done, but ain’t it time…..for a clean slate?

  22. criticalcontrarian

    OC, copy that. Agreed. The Russians are really feeling it too. Their reserves position makes a big difference though. It’s getting really interesting. Read:
    Elaine, your Free Trade Costs Berlin, NY post has been mirrored in iTulip. More and more people are appreciating your insight and commentary, this is very encouraging.

  23. Poem of the day…

    Israel is behind the times…
    Israel will be left behind.
    Blabbering bathering fools with indiscriminate tools of destruction in their hands

    Palestine includes many families & families matter all over the globe.
    Plus, old-life remembers….
    end of poem

    Plus, let me say 08 is coming to an end. Thank goodness. I’m looking forward to 09.


  24. Oh yeah and sorry for the many posts, but one last thing.
    Does anyone understand proportion?
    Does anyone know about strings of perception?
    I’m tired of the few dumb shits pulling the strings – enough is enough cause we have the NUMBERS. Duh!

  25. emsnews

    Thanks for the head’s up, Criticalcontrarian. ITulip is the OLDEST website that talked about the economic mess from way back when. They are quite admirable.

  26. openly hidden

    ok ken. what are strings of perception? anything like multidimensions? and i still want to know what happens to dollars if the chinese are getting rid of them. how do they literally do that? they are getting rid of 1/0, right? then where do the 1/0 go? do they return? who has them if the chinese don’t want them anymore? do they go back to some bankster in new york city to be played with again by others?

    is any of this as real as poker chips online?

    why do people play this game anyway? for what i wonder. why don’t “the people” just decide to tie “money” to say a reasonable estimate for the sum of all the land and machinery and tools and brains and imagination available in the entire country and have everyone own a share of that instead of foreign private bankers? then start all over again i guess.

  27. openly hidden, please be careful when talking about 1 over zero, and also please remember that 0 no longer exists if it ever did. 🙂
    Strings of perception are formed upon every incident of a brain connection so to speak. So when I read what you state, a string of perception has been created. That kind of string is very complicated based on a whole bunch of history and education — its connected with other strings. The web is immense. Just like our brains.
    The beauty is we each have our own brain. We all learn.
    It ain’t about poker chips and thats what the banksters have yet to learn because nobody is allowed to gamble with life and if you try, then you die.

  28. So the bounceback (sometimes it takes awhile, but the times is less as the choices narrow) from indiscriminate taking of life is permanent death for the individual who made the ill-advised choice. Seems simple to me, but it can get murky cause the devil is in the details. Sort of like a wound up string in the “hands” of a Minatour in the middle (or maybe not) of a never ending maze!

  29. The bounceback for the specific taking of life (such as occurred to President Kennedy) is eternal damnation for those who are responsible.
    No human is allowed such as act cause Karma, old-life, history, herstory (call it what you will) does NOT forget.
    Isreal is about to learn a hard lesson. Seems as such to me.

  30. openly hidden

    to me all the worlew misery is very ugly and destructive wanting “more”. just have enough to take care of you and yours. if you get more than you can look after yourself, you have too much. then things get complicated and falls down causing many problems. and all evil comes from this lust after “money” and what you think you can get from it. i think humans are fatally infected with a disease and better to turn your back on it all. the end.

  31. I proclaim no harmful intent, but I sing out for justified retribution for those few who perpetuate suffering of innocence.

  32. openly hidden, it might be your end, but not mine.

  33. Peace – “OH” – I hope you smile again.

  34. OK, I’ve thought about it a bit more and I admit I have no idea about this “eternal damnation” bullshit.
    I just know Kennedy should have never been targetted in Dallas. Consequences manifest in mysterious ways.
    There might be hope for a killer to be reformed, but SCALE MATTERS. Libra knows this inherently.
    This year is about to end isn’t it? I’m ready for something better.

  35. Paul S

    The oil pool spill is a good example of why the neo cons and the talk radio fascists like Limbaugh and Hannity CONSTANTLY harp on the alleged “fraud” that global warming is caused mainly by man–or its corporations. You see, if you have to admit that humans are the primary cause of global warming, then it is undeniable that corporations that cause these types of spills/toxic waste are liable. Toxic waste pollution is VERY expensive and corporations like GE and Monsanto fight these pollution fines tooth, fang and claw. Too bad our Congress and White House are Corporate owned, deosn’t seem to matter what party.

  36. Hey has everyone made their New Year’s resolution? I’ve made mine and I’m starting it a day early.
    2008 – its been great.
    Good-by everyone and fare thee well.
    Peace is what we need so why is it so difficult?
    Ought not be.

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