Polar Opposites

I don’t like making contentions without some good data to back up my comments so I thought it was time to discuss human population density and global migration and how this interacts with high birthrates, population density, location of trade/port systems and how the southern hemisphere of the earth has a very different dynamic than the northern hemisphere of the earth.  So, as usual, we go to maps and look at various data sets to figure things out, yet again.


I am a very stubborn person.  I can’t just let go of something.  This is because one can learn a lot about a subject if one looks around more.  I have gut feelings that lead me to various topics but the learning process is all about analysis.  That is, we must look anew at any information and of course, set all information in a historical perspective.  On issues like global population movements, this is certainly most important.  Below is a very simplified map of the world I drew, showing the earth divided in two, the northern and southern hemispheres:

The actual climate maps would show an undulating line because the oceans shift the planetary warm/cool zones to a considerable degree.  Even though England, for example, is further north than all the US, it is warmer than most of the northern half of the US.  And the west coast of the North American continent is much warmer than the eastern coast due to ocean currents as well as the shape of the jet stream which snakes across the upper half of the northern hemisphere.


Now, looking at this map, we notice that most of the landmasses are in the northern hemisphere or close to it.  The landmasses are wider and thicker as they approach the north pole.  While in the southern half of the earth, the continents taper off to the south and so the continents there are totally surrounded by open ocean that isn’t covered with ice or permafrost.  The acreage of land in the northern hemisphere is greater than in the southern hemisphere.  Actually, my map above doesn’t split the world on the equator, I drew the line where the climate shifts from mainly temperate zone to desert zones.  The far greater mass of land is in the northern hemisphere since half of Africa and a portion of South America are on the equator.  Virtually no land is in the southern hemisphere compared to the northern hemisphere.


This is very important.  The effects of warming on the southern half of the planet is totally different from the northern half.  The temperate zone will shift northwards with global warming into the permafrost areas which are very considerable.  Greenland, which is under huge ice sheets, for example, is an entire continent that would be released from the death grip of ice if there is warming.  The desert zones will shift northwards, a bit, too.  This takes it into the dark green zone on my map.  But the shift of the light green zone northwards more than makes up for all this.  That is, since the greatest planetary landmasses surround the north pole, shifting the warm zones northwards actually will bring into play, greater and greater land available for agriculture and the spread of wildlife such as birds or grazing animals as well as trees.


A shift southwards of the temperate belt takes it increasingly over oceans, not landmasses.  The loss of northern landmass to ice and cold is a greater loss to life on earth than a shift northwards of the climates.  This is a truth global warming scientists don’t examine nearly enough.  Instead, I have the impression that they want to hold back the tide of various natural and  human systems to preserve a status quo they are accustomed to.


That is, they want to set the planet in one steady state and keep it there!  This is physically impossible, of course.  The history of the planet is all about shifts, sudden changes and various cycles of various levels and sorts.  It is anything but stable. If I were a goddess and examining the planet, I would certainly shift the temperate zones further northwards to exploit all the landmasses that cluster there.  The extinction of ice age animals is sad, of course, just like the extinction of the dinosaurs (except for the bird ones and various reptile species, etc) was also very sad if you are a dinosaur.  But they died off because the planet became cold, not hot!  We are nowhere near where the warm temperatures were during the reign of the dinosaurs any more than we are near the cold temperatures when ice age mammals roamed the white, frigid landscape.


Now, back to the topic of human migrations: most of these are economic migrations, not due to temperature.  That is, high-birthrate populations move to places with low-birthrates.  But first, I want to mention the gnome population: they are economic migrants who like to have some sort of sanctuary where they can issue forth and loot everyone.  Since the City of London has turned on these pirates and wants to tax them, they are all fleeing to Queen Elizabeth’s many pirate coves and plan on flying in and out of these places frequently while they continue to be banking gnomes:


Hundreds of bosses flee UK over 50% tax – Times Online

Britain’s financiers and entrepreneurs are quitting the UK at a rate of 10 a week to avoid Labour’s new 50% taxes. The burgeoning exodus threatens to deepen a £178 billion black hole in the public finances and leave middle-class voters with higher taxes for years to come, figures obtained from Companies House reveal.


The number of directors of British businesses registered as living in the low-tax centres of Jersey, Guernsey or the Isle of Man has risen by almost 500 to 6,729 in the past 12 months.


The British Virgin Islands is also a popular destination, with 615 directors of UK companies now based in the Caribbean tax haven — an 18% rise on a year ago….Jersey Finance, an agency set up to attract financial talent to the island, has held a series of private dinners in London to woo new residents. Geoff Cook, the agency’s chief executive, said: “The 50% tax rate does seem to have been the tipping point for many people.” However, the island’s authorities maintain that the rich often favour Jersey because of the easy access to London, the sandy beaches, low crime rates and the use of English as the first language.


The government of England should, like the US, get the tattered remains of their tiny navy together and invade these pirate coves.  Of course, this means telling the Queen to go shove it.  HAHAHA.  Maybe the Brits will finally finish off these parasites.  The Queen is the ultimate authority over these islands so all Parliament has to do is barricade her in her palace and of course, poke a hole in Prince Charle’s yacht and let it sink.  Let the poor princes in waiting resume a normal life and have fun in the military and at nightclubs and end this farce once and for all.


Note several other things: like most people who have money, the gnomes want sandy beaches and balmy temperatures.  And easy access to airports and yacht docks.  They live with immense carbon footprints and like this very much, thank you.  The gnome embrace of the concept that global warming is pure evil is due entirely to the idea that they can get trillions of dollars via carbon trading games in the derivatives markets.  Otherwise, they don’t give even the smallest hoot about all of this.  Of course, they are now even more concerned about rising oceans since this will swamp their Elizabethan pirate coves!  So of course, they don’t care if fixing this means freezing me to death on my inland mountain!


All over the world, there are migrations:  Net_migration_rate_world.PNG 1357×628 pixels

The blue parts show immigration rises and the brown are exit points.  I circled in red, the high-population growth areas.  That is, these are places that either refuse or outlaw birth controls.  Usually, religious dogma is the reason for this situation.  China is a major exception to this.  China has such a huge population, that it is moving outwards not due to people fleeing economic ruin but due to a desire to expand Chinese influence in the world and of course, due to the sheer size of the Chinese population which is stressing out natural resources within China.  That is, the need for water, food and economic expansion still leads to emigration rising, not falling.


The Catholic regions of central and south America are a major cause of emigration.  Europe, Japan, Russia and the US all have falling birthrates, some below the rate of replacement.  Note that Japan has very little immigration unlike the other low birthrate areas.  This is due to a cultural desire to lock out foreigners.  Dead center in central Asia is one blue spot: Afghanistan.  This is due entirely and only to the NATO troop movements  with Obama’s surges in that war.  Much of the industrial belt is in the northern hemisphere so the population moves to the north are due to industrialization.


With the Copenhagen push to kill off the industrial base of the northern hemisphere in the hopes of saving polar bears, this migration will cease.  One of the saddest parts of this self-destruction of the northern culture and civilization is, if we move manufacturing to the other hemisphere, they will need to have more air conditioning since it is always very warm there.  And this will pour hot air into the environment in hot climate conditions (air conditioners pump out great amounts of heat!) and this shifting of the carbon footprint to the south will not fix global warming at all.


That is, even if we try to freeze not only the temperatures of the northern areas which are the bulk of planetary landmasses, and if we deindustrialize the north totally, this will not fix anything at all.  And of course, if the planet heats up, the need for more air conditioning in the south will rise as industries relocate there due to the carbon cap and trade business being run by gnomes living on balmy pirate islands.


As it is, the populations of the earth within nations always shift away from cold, dry places to warm, wet places or even mores so, to warm, dry places.  Just for the fun of it, I decided to look at population densities of China, the nation with the most humans:


Google Image Result for http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Population_density_of_China_by_first-level_administrative_regions(English).png

Typically, the closer to the coasts, the more people.  Northern China is where there is a lot of coal and was the earlier industrial base of the nation but even so, the population levels are highest where the temperate belt is in China: along the middle of the east coast.  Southern China is hot and humid and except for the trade ports of Hong Kong and Macau and the province next to them, the bulk of people are between Beijing and Shanghai.  In the US, we still have a large population base inland rather than on the coast but this is due to the Great Lakes which are the equivalent of sea shore property elsewhere.


population-density-us.jpg 468×305 pixels

China has no ‘Great Lakes’ connected with the oceans.  Back when most trade was via water, the Great Lakes complex of water systems which pass through Canada or 150 years ago, used the Erie Canal to connect with the large Hudson River system which exits at NYC, a great deal of US industrial production developed in the Great Lakes regions.  These are now being rapidly destroyed or dismantled.  Production shifted to the Mid Atlantic states, favoring the anti-union former slave states as a production base.


But the populations haven’t entirely followed suit, yet.  Right now, the WWII in migration of working populace from the non-air conditioned south is still hugging their homesteads in the north but this is nearly entirely due to welfare systems.  Generally speaking, when the unionized workers retired, they moved back south again.  The NYC tristate region is still the most densely populated place in the US but this is now mostly due to it being a major port hub for the entire eastern half of the US plus it being the headquarters for many of the world’s gnome population.  That is, the very rich use this area as a main international base of operations.  This is thanks for them being allowed to use the Queen Elizabethan pirate coves in the Caribbean as fake headquarters for tax evasion purposes.


This is a huge problem for US finances.  England went very deep into public debt to save the gnomes who are now running away, as usual.  The US spent even more to save the banking system set up by a bunch of tax cheating gnomes and now wants to tax someone to pay for all this.  Dems to lift debt ceiling by $1.8 trillion, fear 2010 backlash is one of many articles in the news today.  That is, the US fiction that we have this ‘debt ceiling’ which was imposed under free-spending Reagan.  This ceiling simply goes up and up and up and the US debts have accumulated like a snowball falling down a mountainside.


I have detailed in the past, how debt rises as interest rates fall.  Well, like Japan, we are now in a ZIRP lending system and naturally, the US debt load rises at an even faster rate than previously when we were charged only 3% or so, for accumulating debts.  At near-zero, there is no limit to debt creation except for one: Someone has to bankroll the principal even if there is no accumulating interest involved.  And these ‘someones’ happen to be our dire trade rivals.  Japan and China buy our debts in order to keep themselves industrialized and to improve their industrial production systems.  While the US is deindustrializing itself while chattering about how we have to make our ‘carbon footprint’ even smaller.


Liberals’ public option dream fading – – POLITICO.com: The US has finally decided it doesn’t want to copy any of the healthcare systems of any of its industrial rivals and is instead, opting for a system that costs manufacturers and businesses an arm and a leg.  As well as taxpayers.  And so we continue with this fiscally unbalanced system that leaves vast swaths of citizens open to dying from preventable causes due to lack of ability to go to the doctor.  And this expensive system is still being heavily subsidized by taxes!  It is screaming for total reforms and we won’t see any at all.  Which means the other option will rise like a demon from hell: to bankrupt the US and thus, bankrupt our entire medical care system a la Russia.


Now, back to the issue of ‘OMG, we are going to roast to death, let’s make our carbon footprint smaller’ :  Volkswagen AG buys $2.5 billion stake in Suzuki Motor Corp, eyes world #1 automaker spot

Germany’s Volkswagen AG will buy a one-fifth stake in Suzuki Motor Corp for $2.5 billion, tapping the Japanese firm’s expertise in small cars and dominance in India as VW seeks to become the No.1 automaker. The move is the second coup this week for ambitious VW Chairman Ferdinand Piech, coming on the heels of the German carmaker’s 3.9 billion euro ($5.8 billion) purchase of a 49.9 percent stake in sports car maker Porsche AG.


GM has just as much trouble holding onto their corporate presidents as AIG.  Crash and burn – again? U.S. auto sales from General Motors, Ford take a tumble in November—this news shows that the US is rapidly being colonized by other manufacturing powers and also, we are shrinking faster than the glaciers.  GM used to be the world’s #1 auto manufacturing and now is vanishing rapidly.  Of course, China is most eager to buy GM from us and then use it to export autos to the US.  Inevitably, this will be the case since even the US public still supports the concept of ‘free trade’.


GM reports $1.2B 3Q loss, but CEO Fritz Henderson insists company has a ‘solid foundation’:  no system can run in the red forever.  There is a limit, a death line that, once crossed, is like the River Styx: you can’t return.  As we are being shoved very forcefully towards committing group suicide so we can save polar bears (how about moving them to my mountain?  It is encased in ice right now.)—our dire trade rivals are seeing their own businesses grow ever larger.  Germany and Japan both embrace local generation of electricity due to both having no oil and limited coal supplies.  So they embrace ‘green’ energy systems.


But neither of them are cutting back on manufacturing things that use energy in other countries.  So we have the ludicrous sight of the US importing German and Japanese cars while both nations order us to make our carbon footprints smaller?  HAHAHA. Both Japan and Germany don’t see the bitter cold winters the majority of the US sees.  I once lived in the mountains of Germany and it was much warmer than here in upstate NY and upstate NY is a lot warmer than parts of the midwest US.  There, it is more like Siberia in winter, though not as cool in summer as Siberia.


Back to China again….the Chinese are building high speed rail systems:  Magnificent Wuhan Railway Station_English_Xinhua

The US rail system has now been reduced to third world status.  Our trains can barely totter along the tracks.  The passenger system is barely better than India’s system.  It is a poverty train system for moving people too poor to fly in jets.  The US deindustrialization process isn’t due to us having a better and better infrastructure system.  It is mostly a process of rotting away of previous systems which were top of the line for 100 years.  One thing that absolutely infuriates me about the entire global warming belief system is how it wants to fudge things by keeping up the pace of energy use increases but at the same time, screams that we are all doomed.


If we are doomed, we will all die, of course.  Only the upside to global warming isn’t ever mentioned.  Changing polar bears in to cuddly buddies is part of the insanity of the global warming community: polar bears are predators who view us as dinner.  If they roamed about our communities, we would shoot them dead, fast.  Preserving the rain forests is a noble and even sane cause: these jungles are the ‘lungs of the earth’.  And to do this, we don’t have to deindustrialize.  We have to impose Chinese-style birth control laws on people living in jungles!  And of course, this is impossible under present conditions.


Running Aground – Geothermal Project in California Is Shut Down – NYTimes.com

In fact, AltaRock immediately ran into snags with its drilling, repeatedly snapping off bits in shallow formations called caprock. The project’s safety was also under review at the Energy Department after federal officials said the company had not been entirely forthcoming about the earthquakes produced in Basel in making the case for the Geysers project.


The results of that review have not yet been announced, but the type of geothermal energy explored in Basel and at the Geysers requires fracturing the bedrock then circulating water through the cracks to produce steam. By its nature, fracturing creates earthquakes, though most of them are small.


On Friday, the Energy Department, which has put some $440 million into its geothermal program this year alone, said that despite the latest developments, it remained confident of the technology’s long-term prospects. Many geothermal methods do not require drilling so deep or fracturing bedrock. “The Department of Energy believes that geothermal energy holds enormous potential to heat our homes and power our economy while decreasing our carbon pollution,” said Stephanie Mueller, a spokeswoman.


AltaRock has also received some $25 million in federal money for a project in Oregon, and some scientists speculated on Friday that after the spate of problems at the Geysers, the company wanted to focus on a new site.


I have written about the Geysers and Alta Rock projects in the past.  There are continuous earthquakes at the Geysers.  And the Alta Rock attempt has now officially failed.  Finding various new ways to supply energy always has costs attached.  For example, we should have more solar panels in the US on all houses.  And this is a manufacturing problem.  Only China, focused on solar energy ever since the 1970’s, has cornered the commodity markets for some key elements used in solar panel manufacturing and you can bet, they want to control this market very badly.


The US decided to play the sluggard in this market and now is left in the dust.  Any global warming accords that freeze us (literally, in the case of the northern half of the US!) in our present situation is totally unacceptable.  Our nation goofed when we went on a gas guzzling binge in the 1990’s to 2004 when oil was fairly cheap.  Now, we struggle along with oil at $70 to the barrel.  And this is cutting down on gas guzzler sales.  The natural rise in oil prices due to the Hubbert Oil Peak will take care of this particular aspect of CO2 pollution.


Now, to a side story that amuses me because it is all about royalty and diplomacy in Asia and this is all about ‘keeping face’.  asahi.com(朝日新聞社):Agency upset by late request for meeting with Xi – English

The head of the Imperial Household Agency was clearly put out Friday over a belated request to set up a meeting in the coming week between Emperor Akihito and Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping.


A visibly displeased Shingo Haketa, who is the grand steward, accused the government in a roundabout way of using the emperor for political purposes. “This is very sad,” Haketa told reporters. “Something like this should not occur simply because the other nation is considered important. This must never happen again.”….Xi is considered a leading candidate to succeed Chinese President Hu Jintao.


  • .Xi Jinping – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: Xi Jinping (simplified Chinese: 习近平; traditional Chinese: 習近平; pinyin: Xí Jìnpíng; born June 1953) is a senior leader of the People’s Republic of China. He currently serves as the country’s Vice President, the top-ranking member of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of China, Principal of the Central Party School, and the 6th ranked member of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s de facto top power organ.


  • Son of Communist veteran Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping served mostly in Fujian province in his early career, and was later appointed party chief of the neighbor Zhejiang province, and then was appointed as Shanghai’s party chief following the dismissal of Chen Liangyu. Known for his liberal policies, tough stance on corruption, and a frank openness about political and market economy reforms[2], Xi’s combination of positions makes him the heir presumptive to current Chinese paramount leader Hu Jintao and the emerging leader of the People’s Republic of China’s fifth generation of leadership.


When Hu visited Japan in 1998 as vice president, he met with Emperor Akihito. Chinese officials apparently wanted Xi to receive similar treatment. Normally, any meeting with the emperor by a visiting foreign dignitary is scheduled at least a month in advance.


It is funny, seeing the staff of the Emperor being all huffy about ‘politics’!  The sole reason the shy Emperor exists is purely political.  His only function in life is to do political things for Japan!  Note how the courtiers try to pretend he has nothing to do with leading or fixing or assisting Japan itself.  This is similar to the Queen of England who views England the exact opposite as the people of England view her: they exist so she can live in a palace.


This is why she, like the Emperor of Japan, lives in a palace as if the small island country is still a world empire.  But the new empire is CHINA.  Note that Xi is being sent by Hu to be groomed in the arts of diplomacy.  And the Chinese/Japanese meetings being conducted this year are all about a massive political realignment in the realm of politics which should alarm Americans.  That is, the trade business which ties Japan with the US, the mostly one-way trade from Japan, is being shifted as Japan has increasing convergence of interests with China.  Namely, that FOREX holdings business whereby Japan and China hold well over $3 trillion in US currency as well as another $3 trillion jointly in US debts.


They have to coordinate how they deal with this.  And we should fear the results.  Couple this with demands that the US cut our carbon footprint via deindustrializing even further and we can see how the future will unwind with the US much more ‘pastoral’.  With polar bears, I am assuming  (I am being sarcastic here).

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20 responses to “Polar Opposites

  1. nah

    rather than modernizing america we are socializing the bejezus out of debt… while our competitors contemplate the future alignment of nations that would better suit their needs… so we get fantastic celebrations for the banner trickle down believers to foist their lifestyle into the shining light of US glory… while our principles rot and rust…
    Healthcare is a good example… whatever we have to do something… but if its all non-profit AND socialized source funding for better than 60%… we mite as well run it… or privatise it…. Im willing to bet good doctors and nurses could inovate care… but what we got is a inferstructure whore of medicine perscribed by CEOs and Insurance ‘competition’…
    the efforts of modern medicine are for the machine… not the communication, representation, or inovation of care…. unless pills and cathode ray tubes count
    we are uninventing social systems in the name of last ditch capitolism…. and the cost is a radical departure from the past
    yet somehow the management finds solace because the will forever be bailed out by the peoples credit… or history… or glory…
    saw some economist saying that being the average joe makes less than investment bankers… we generate more velocity of money and that leads to more production and GDP… whereas if you give someone 100milion it will take them years to pay their accounts and advance the supply of money… so rather than buy things that create jobs and goods… STUPID RICH buy speculative postions in markets and debt that produce nothing for our current situation but stagnant joblessness… and yet this is what the bailout is getting us… more bonuses for career speculators that cant price a market
    good jobs are tied to failed regulation and inconsistent quality

  2. Jim Dandy


  3. Mr Bill

    I feel that this topic was insightful and useful to me. A “calloused and insensitive” analyst that I know would say – “Hm, I think she is pointing out that the most poor and most prolific humanity makers are migrating to merge with the least poor and least prolific humanity makers (except China)”. Of course, there are degrees of poor and rich. Migration also has historically followed industries and resources.

    I indirectly touched on the five critical world issues which were at the heart of The Limits to Growth (1) population, (2) farmable land / food production, (3) industrialization, (4) resource depletion and (5) Pollution. The Limits to Growth was first published in 1972 based on research commissioned by The Club of Rome. The book stressed the importance of understanding the application of exponential growth curves. It is certainly not perfect in its forecasts, but it suggests some clues. The Simplistic bottom line is:
    when the world gets out on the high parts of exponential growth, social conditions will become more stressed and eventually a high percentage of human population will die quickly. Then we start over! (A new followup edition added into their conclusion that the stronger regions would dominate the weaker regions and exploit them.).Doesn’t the world seem to be fitting into something resembling the above scenario?

    Exponential growth is occurring everywhere, and much of it is at the high parts of the curve approaching some limits. Population, industrialization, resource consumption and pollution increase is exponential. So are money transactions and debt. It is hard to say exactly when it will break, but it will break! A critical factor will be irreversibly exceeded and the overall system can go no further. Are the elites and leaders oblivious to this fact or are they gaming the system?

  4. emsnews

    The real fact that is being ignored is something rather obvious: neither Greenland nor Antarctica, two continents, have been exploited. So this is virgin territory.

    The parts of the earth that have been heavily mined and farmed can’t carry the load forever, we shall see a population shift if there is warming.

    No warming means we have to seriously downsize our exploitation of resources unless we go into space and mine the asteroids, for example.

  5. Mr Bill

    Now relating your maps back to my earlier post, it appears that the migration movement from the poorest areas to other areas seems to coincide with military actions in those poorest areas. Those poorest areas do have a lot of desired resources but a lot of the poorest humanity makers on the earth. Hm. China is in these areas negotiating for resources with infrastructure, etc while USA / EU seem to prefer military action. It still looks like a case of the strong working to take advantage of the weak.

    Resource rich areas do not need large populations, they need resource extraction technology. Hm. Is population reduction attractive here? Move some of the less poor out and leave the very poor to survive.

    How about the geopolitical struggles? Isn’t all of the current actions related to controlling some piece of the pie? Industrialization doesn’t seem to be totally settled, but it appears to be headed to the BRIC block. These are all relatively poor areas, but they tend to have a growing intellect. It does seem to be leaving the US.

    It just seems that there is an uncanny link between your maps and dialog here and the overall current geopolitical environment and the basic Club of Rome report back in 1972. Incidentally, the gold standard in the US was dropped in this same time period, as was some apparant starting points for many exponential growth curves.

  6. emsnews

    The success of international World Health Organization vaccination programs caused a global population surge. This, of course, is totally contrary to the beliefs of people who think vaccinations are killing us (this is probably the dumbest thing one can believe in, I would think!).

    Yes, vaccinations created a global population surge even in very dirty and poor places with bad or no sanitation, for example.

    And the only reason we don’t have huge families in industrial countries is very simple: birth control. My mother had 7 children and used no birth control. None of my brothers or sisters have 7 children.

    Most families of industrial nations have less than 3 children, often, less than 2 children. Population growth is mostly due to immigration (except for Japan which has a dropping population).

    The Club of Rome was correct about overpopulation. It is a major problem. The Chinese have accepted this reality, for example. I know that many conspiracy theorists are in hysterics about the Club of Rome reports but I was around when it was being drawn up and I was and still am, a big pusher for birth control. Big time.

    This earth is a very limited planet! We can’t multiply to infinity.

  7. Paul S

    “Healthcare is a good example… whatever we have to do something… ” Oh, our rulers are going to do something alright. Pretty much what the health insurance companies TELL them to do. Oh, maybe a few measly crumbs for the peasants. just to “prove” the ruling class isn’t totally owned by the health insurance cartel.

  8. Jim Dandy

    Elaine, what are the vaccination rates in third world countries? Your assumptions lack statistical support

  9. emsnews

    Go to the WHO web page and you can see all about that. It has been VERY intense. Very, very intense levels.

  10. norcalkid

    1. I live over the hills from The Geysers, and the entire area is riddled with small fault lines. AltaRock’s plans to fracture more rock was insane, and opposed by most of the locals.

    2. I still have my paperback copy of The Limits to Growth, purchased when it was published. Many of The Club of Rome’s predictions are happening; they were simply delayed by technology. Had we actually done something in the 70s and 80s, we would not be dealing with many current problems. As it is, I think “the world as we know it” is toast. We waited too long.

  11. DoesItMatter

    >>The passenger system is barely better than India’s system.
    What is wrong with India’s system?

  12. emsnews

    India’s system is physically dirty and the trains are slow like here.

  13. Mr Bill

    Since I am on a roll of sorts on this topic, let me touch a bit on the pollution issue. The real pollution at issue is the total pollution – solids, liquids and gases. There has been much useful research in all of these areas. Much of the research followed the scientific method, was often peer reviewed and discussed in scientific organizations and fiercely debated among opposing camps. In the end, good science comes about when the good scientists let the chips fall where they may, until some truly irrefutable research ultimately establishes the validity of one theory over the other debated theories. The validated theory moves forward while the others are stillborn. The progress toward good science is an ongoing affair, with new theories replacing old ones and old established theories being proven to be invalid after all. But, the current group of Global Warmers appear to have tried to short circuit the scientific process and introduce agenda and political actions into the process. Bad science frequently creeps into this latter situation.

    Now lets look at the surface of the current Global Warming debate. Firstly, it does not appear to be a debate. One camp has highjacked the debate and declared victory and plans to implement their presumed conclusions quickly. In my opinion, a glaring flaw in their conclusions rests with the selection of CO2 gas as the one and only contributor to the overall global warming on earth. We cannot rule out CO2, but we should look carefully at the many other factors – the Sun and solar wins, orbit wobble of the earth, the relative heat effects of land masses versus water masses, atmospheric and oceanic currents, etc. We don’t have the answer to this issue, but there are reputable scientists who argue in favor of these other factors.

    Until recently, any college chemistry text lists CO2 as a standard component of the Earth atmosphere. They list dry air to be Nitrogen (78 pct vol) and Oxygen (21 pct) and Argon (0.9 pct and CO2 (0.0368 pct) and an array of other minor gases. That is, CO2 is about 368 ppm, up from 275 ppm in 1900. Water is also present in moist air, in far greater quantities than the CO2. Now, we are being told that CO2 is a pollutant that is on the verge of wreaking havoc on the Earth. We are told that we must single out CO2, declare it to be a financially tradeable commodity and create a trading system that allow high CO2 polluters to trade currency for available CO2 credits with the undeveloped low polluters.

    There is evidence which suggest the Global Warmers fudged the actual temperature data to create the impression that global temperature is on the rise. There is also a basic problem with all of this that the Global Warmers elect to ignore all of the other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are lists of the impacts (GWP) of other greenhouse gases, but only CO2 recieves their attention. Briefly, GWP, Global Warming Potential, is the product of the quantity of each gas times the Infrared energy absorption of each gas.

    First off, Water vapor (gas) is a far more severe greenhouse gas (higher GWP) than CO2, but its GWP is rarely reported (Argument is water vapor varies so greatly and quickly with global weather patterns and there is nothing that can be done about it, so ignore it, even as a baseline). Further, almost all of the atmospheric water vapor is natural, not man made. Including the water vapor, CO2 accounts for about 3.6 pct of the total. But water vapor accounts for about 95 percent of all of the greenhouse gases effects. So take your pick – should water vapor be included or not?

    Excluding the water vapor, CO2 accounts for over 99 pct of the total greenhouse gases. The other ones are the trace gases such as methane, nitrogen oxide (high temperature combustion), Chlorinated Flourides CFCs and HCFC(refrigerants), Sulfur Flourides (electronics and plasma products), etc. These trace gases make up less than 1 pct of the total, but their IR absortion effects may be 1000’s time worse than CO2 and they are substantially man made and on the rise. For example, only about 3 pct of CO2 is man made, while 5 pct nitrogen oxide, 18 pct of methane and 65 pct of the CFC,s etc. are man made.

    Put the numbers together and we get this summary picture! The total atmospheric CO2 has been rising from 275 ppmv in 1900 to 368 ppmv currently, but only 3 pct of the total CO2 is man made. This is the part the Global Warmers are interested in regulating. But there are other greenhouse gases up there, some trace gases and water vapor. If the GWP for all of the greenhouse gases are weighted to include both quantity and heat effects, and exclude the water vapor, CO2 accounts for about 72 pct and the others are 28 pct of the total greenhouse gases, but this represents only 5 pct of the total (with water vapor included). Include the water vapor as a greenhouse gas and the numbers are 3.6 pct for CO2 and 1.4 for all of the other trace gases.

    If only the man made portion of the total are considered, then the heat effects translate to 2.3 pct for CO2 and 3.1 pct for all of the other gases, when water vapor is excluded. The percentage contributions for the man made portions of the greenhouse gases drop to 0.117 pct for CO2 and 0.161 pct for the others when the water vapor is included.

    The bottom line is the numbers most frequently used by Global Warmers tend to exclusively reference the CO2 numbers. But it appears that the importance of other trace gases actually seem to be equal or greater than the CO2. Also, if the total water vapor in the atmosphere is also included, the expected contribution for the man made CO2 is actually in the 0.1 pct range, not the 3.6 pct or the 72.4 pct range sometimes reported in the literature.

  14. Last night I learned that Buffalo had the worst blizzard in a century in 1977. I thought to myself, thanks to global warming such blizzards will never happen again.

    Wrong. December 10-11 THIS YEAR had a blizzard bad enough to shut down the NYS Thruway between Buffalo and Pennsylvania.


  15. emsnews

    Thank you very much, Mr. Bill! A good summary of many aspects. About the cloud cover: Today, when I was outside, I could see that a storm front is approaching due to all the contrails of jets getting thicker and thicker.

    Jet contrails didn’t exist before 1950. and the massive explosive growth in jet usage is directly responsible for changing the dynamics of our atmosphere in many ways that irritate the hell out of me.

    Not to mention, these things are extremely noisy. Not to mention, dangerous in crashes.

    We should change the way we live and do business! Pollution of all sorts is not good. How we do this is the real political question. And the fix the rulers cooked up is STUPID, useless and DOOMED TO FAIL. Thus, my cynical response to this conference.

    Ed: my husband was in school in Rochester, NY, that year, studying photography (he made his living doing science photography for biologists and geologists!) and his dorm room was three stories up. He and his friends would jump off of the balconies into the snow which was only a few feet lower!

    That year, by the way, was the year that ice flows clogged NY harbor and I thought I was living in the Arctic. Many sea birds starved to death and I had to go to the beach every day to feed them. They were so desperate and cold, they would climb into my lap and huddle against me! They all became very tame and stayed that way during the summer months.

  16. Elaine, I was in my teens Eastern Massachusetts at the time! (Scituate, to be precise.) ’76 to 77, ’77 to 78 and ’78 to 79 were the COLDEST winters I had ever known, even worse than the Michigan winters I had known as a pre-teen — and those were damn cold, with nighttime temps at 0 to -10F! And like NY Harbor, Boston Harbor and Scituate Harbor would also freeze over. In February 78 we had a blizzard to rival NYC’s Blizzard of (18)88, with severe beachfront damages from extreme storm surges.

    And then the summers of those same years, we had wicked heat waves beginning in April! I remember sweltering in the classrooms in high school, for in New England, nobody believed in air conditoning. (Now, it’s a necessity hahaha.)

  17. emsnews

    We are now in the middle of an ice fog that is covering all the trees with white ice.

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