ΩΩThe entire concept of a floating fiat currency with no gold basis for international trade was, whenever a nation ran a trade deficit, they would see the value of their currency fall and thus, be ‘self correcting’. It didn’t work at all. Now, we see the banking crisis which grew out of an immense Japanese carry trade bubble of lending, falling into a classic deflationary spiral as all nations strive very hard to weaken their currencies for trade advantage. Open manipulation of the value of currencies is now de rigeur. It is the solution to domestic declines: more export trade.
ΩΩIndeed, our own administration firmly believes we can export our way to prosperity. Of course, we haven’t succeeded in this since 1970 but 40 years of total failure hasn’t daunted economic experts from prescribing more of the same free trade solutions. Nay, they increase the free trade aspect even as statistics scream at us that this is making things progressively worse. Now, thanks to being totally underwater in every possible aspect, our housing market now in full financial and legal collapse, trade rivals can’t prop up the dollar very well, anymore. The dynamics forcing the floating fiat dollar to sink like the Titanic are…titanic in nature. Unstoppable.
ΩΩThe IMF and G 20 nations still hope to defy gravity and to continue torturing the floating fiat currency system so it will not operate properly but would continue floating the US dollar despite trillions in accumulated trade deficit spending: Global Finance Chiefs Fail to Resolve Currency Spat (Update3) – Bloomberg.com
Finance ministers and central bankers pledged to improve cooperation, yet did little to show how they would alter their ways beyond agreeing to let the IMF study the matter. With the dollar down 11 percent against the yen since mid-June, compared with less than 3 percent versus the Chinese yuan, the focus turns to Group of 20 talks in South Korea in coming weeks to prove international policymaking isn’t in tatters.
“Policy makers seemed to be trying to diminish concerns about currency wars,” said Steven Englander, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “There did not seem any commitment to change behavior, however. There is little to suggest that the dollar’s direction is anything but down.”
ΩΩWhy is the US worried about this? We should be happy that most of our trade rivals are now seeing proper operation of the floating fiat currency system! China hasn’t run trade surpluses with the US for 40 years like Europe or Japan or South Korea! It took 40 years of double trade to the US from these nations to get the dollar to finally lose value. So will China see the same thing, in 40 years.
ΩΩThe idea that this floating currency game is too easily rigged doesn’t occur to the victim, the US. That is, we got to suffer ‘free trade’ for decades with no respite while being told that the dollar would fix things by merely dropping in value. Of course, the US government couldn’t let this drop happen due to oil imports: dollar goes down, oil prices go up and we get raging inflation at home.
ΩΩThe dynamic used to fix this was to rapidly offshore all our jobs and industries! This way, they don’t suffer if oil hikes cause inflation at home. This also kept jobs cheap at home and along with a healthy flood of illegal aliens undercutting wages even further, we got very little inflation at home even as oil rose relentlessly in price.
ΩΩNow, we are running out of jobs and industries to ship overseas and our main export item is, believe it or not, shipping out US dollars for foreign consumption via borrowing money from ourselves to buy imports or spend on wars overseas. We also print up many billions to hand out to trade rivals so they can buy our military equipment with loans we give them and which many don’t pay back or get at 0% interest. Dollar ‘Panic’ Drop to 74 Yen Likely in 2011, Wakabayashi Says – Bloomberg.com
An advance in Treasury yields amid receding concerns over an economic slowdown would likely prompt concerns that the U.S. will struggle to rein in its budget deficit, spurring a sell-off of bonds and the dollar, Wakabayashi said.
The Bank of Japan hasn’t done enough to lift the economy while the nation has been suffering from a strengthening yen and deflation for 20 years, Wakabayashi said. The Bank of Japan Law should be revised so that the bank will focus on not just price stability but also on maximum employment, similar to the Federal Reserve’s mandate, he said.
ΩΩThe Japanese have dropped any pretense of being our economic allies. They have been pretty damn clear, they are dangerous rivals and they intend to keep us under their economic boot heels. They are the ultimate cause of the ZIRP solution to a credit crash. They caused their own credit crash at home in the 1980’s and are the wellspring of the lending tsunami that soaked everyone so badly in the last decade.
ΩΩThey are now going to very aggressively pursue policies that hurt the US openly and will do everything in their power to prevent us from reindustrializing. They are a key factor in much of the higher-end Chinese exports since the Japanese elites use the Chinese and other Asians as cheap labor for exports to the US. Just as US corporations do the same. China Has Done Enough to Deserve More Power at IMF, Zhou Says – Bloomberg.com
Zhou said China has “taken more responsibility,” citing its agreement to purchase $50 billion of IMF bonds in 2009 as having helped boost the institution’s resources to stabilize the global economy.
“China not only considers its own interests, but global co-operation in overcoming the economic crisis,” said Zhou. “To those countries facing difficulties, we help and support them with what we can.”
Global finance chiefs at the IMF annual meeting are warning that a race to weaken exchange rates among countries from China to Brazil to Japan risks hurting the world economy…. “It’s time for people to calm down and think more about the fundamental causes of the crisis, not to blame someone else,” Zhou said “You should also find out what went wrong with yourself.”
ΩΩThe US refuses to look at itself and take blame for creating this monster mess in the first place. Ie: we have to face the truth that the Nixonian floating fiat currency game was stupid in the first place and should have never happened. All Nixon had to do was stop all the wild war spending initiated by LBJ and force Europe and Japan to pay equal shares of the costs of the Cold War spending protecting them. Instead, he pulled a trick rabbit out of his hat with the connivance of both Europe and Japan.
ΩΩThat is, after promising everyone that the floating currency game was going to fix the trade deficit, it enabled the trade deficit and weakened the dollar tremendously at the same time. That is, we had nearly instant inflation. This, in turn, was fixed by crushing wages at home. Today’s take home pay of the middle class is lower than in 1976 in real dollar value terms.
ΩΩIn terms of energy costs for the average family, this has gotten 10X worse than in 1970. There was a period of cheap energy from 1994-2000 which pleased everyone and we all rushed out to buy gas guzzling monster trucks. But the good times ended quite abruptly and now we are in a grinding mill that will ruthlessly cause inflation and we can’t fix this with cheaper and cheaper dollars.
ΩΩBack in the 1990’s, we could beggar Mexico and the Middle East with cheap oil prices but now this is over with a bang and we have to face the music and figure out how to close our energy and trade gaps before we see both explode in our faces for unlike in the 1990’s, China now soaks up any excess oil on world markets and can outbid us easily in future oil future markets.
ΩΩNikkei news is very concerned about the abrupt about face by China as it suddenly sold off nearly all Japanese debts in August. Now the data is coming in and being analyzed by worried Japanese bankers: 2010/10/09 03:49 – China’s JGB Selling In August Raises Eyebrows
China sold 2.01 trillion yen more in JGBs than it bought in August, an all-time high on a monthly basis, according to balance of payment data released Friday by the Ministry of Finance. It had been a net buyer to the tune of roughly 2.3 trillion yen this year through July….Most of China’s JGB trading showing up in the statistics is considered to be transactions involving its foreign reserves.
“Managing foreign reserves is a highly technical matter and is unlikely to take into account political factors,” explains Takashi Sekiyama, an appointed lecturer at Meiji University.
ΩΩJapan is worried that China is punishing Japan in the economic sphere. Well, duh! China makes it crystal clear, all Chinese choices are made on behalf of making China richer, stronger and more competitive! Duh!!!! This is not a sign of evil but of intelligence. The US and Europeans chuckled over giving the Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident who defied the communist party there instead of giving it to a Western warmonger. The choice was not a sign that the Nobel committee is sane. It was done deliberately to slap the Chinese down a tad.
ΩΩReflexively, the Chinese leadership snarled in unison because they are dictators. But then, many of our allies are dictators who oppress their people even worse than the Chinese. But are not pushed in any way. Especially Saudi Arabia. I view this award as a war mongering machine and not a serious peace prize. The GOAL of the committee and the cheering West is not to reward people who prevent wars but reward revolutionaries who are fighting our rivals while leaving us alone to wage wars! This is beyond stupid and is naked hostility, not a love of democracy.
ΩΩIf it were a love of humanity and democracy, the committee would remove Obama’s award as he is a total fraud. And a fool since he and his predecessors are also easily tricked by the Japanese who have nothing but total contempt for our leaders and I am not surprised by this. Here is the latest example of Japanese contempt: 2010/10/10 14:23 – Noda: Didn’t Discuss Japan Intervention With US Geithner
Noda said during the Group of Seven leading nations dinner Friday, he “explained Japan’s recent efforts regarding the recent foreign exchange intervention, so I skipped that issue” in the U.S.-Japan talks. Regarding Japan’s stance that it will intervene in the currency market if necessary, Noda said: “There were no debates on whether we will act or not.”
Noda declined to comment whether the meeting touched on China’s currency or whether he thinks he has gained support from Geithner or other G-7 members for Japan’s currency policy. The issue of a competition to devalue currencies wasn’t discussed, he added.
ΩΩGeithner doesn’t give a hoot about how well our business is conducted. He is perfectly OK with us running rampant trade deficits and budget over runs since his favorite country, Israel, benefits hugely from both. So he is not fired up on the topic, he tippy-toes around it hoping that the US public, mislead by Zionist media operators, to focus only on specific trade rivals rather than the entire process of free trade.
ΩΩThe Japanese exploit this to the hilt! They know we will be delusional and allow them to run hog wild over us as our leaders try to pin the entire mess on that late-comer, China, instead of dealing with all our trade rivals in the same way at the same time! Geithner had to bring this issue up but didn’t and the Japanese openly gloated, at home, of course.
ΩΩAnd look at this news! Japan, U.S. To Collaborate On G-7’s Forex Framework: the G7 excludes China and Japan is more than pleased to work with the US to configure things so they can continue to run an immense FOREX base to manipulate the yen. They heard the prediction that the yen would rise to 74 to the dollar and this scares the hell out of them. So they are embracing the US even harder and hoping we are too stupid to stop them. And I am betting that yes, we are too stupid to stop them.
ΩΩCheck Out Chris Whalen’s Terrifying Presentation On The 2011 Foreclosure Crisis
ΩΩThank you, Mr. Whalen, for pointing out the obvious! The capital/principal base matters a great deal!!! And yes, the dollar amounts earned by banks holding bonds is collapsing! This means, the capital base is declining! The spread is no good even if it is ‘big’ if the entire thing is microscopic in size! The closer to zero, the closer to death. This is how the Cave of Wealth and Death operates.
ΩΩOur banking system is sicker than ever. Far from recovery, the collapse in the ability to evict people who cease to honor loans is significant. Recently, I read a sob story about this schlub who refused to pay his mortgage on his underwater Florida home, was supposed to be evicted and was using this as an opportunity to buy a new home for cash, $58,000! And he was pissed because the foreclosed home was yanked from the market due to paper processing problems!
ΩΩThe scamming of the system by everyone continues! This man should not be allowed to skip out on his promises when he has $58,000 in cash to pay for his loans! We, the bond holders, Fannie Mae paper holders, taxpayers who spent $180 billion bailing out these clowns, should demand this man be lynched! Far from being a victim, his thinking process is typical of what passes for citizenship thinking today!
ΩΩThe big, big danger here is, if anyone can skip away from debts while holding huge funds, society collapses! It is bad when the rich get to play the bankruptcy game and bad when everyone copies them. I have known bankrupts personally: all of them, without exception, would go on spending sprees right before bankruptcy due to planning to go bankrupt! They take expensive vacations, buy stuff that can’t be confiscated by the banks, etc.
ΩΩThe easy-going bankruptcy laws were amended by Congress several years ago but still are extremely easy on people with only a few provisions being direct, namely, taking away houses and cars of bankrupts and in many states, not even that at this point! Now, we see a collapse in this process which will encourage more wild spending by people who are underwater.
ΩΩIf everyone does this, we kill our banking system entirely. There are many people who I suspect are not savers, who pray we have a goofy system that never penalizes spenders no matter how much they go into debt. I am a net saver and this pisses me off. Collapsing wages has turned a nation of savers into a nation of spenders and spenders who are in debt are at odds with savers anxious to preserve past wealth. This, in turn, leads to a collapse in all systems.
ΩΩAnd all this was caused by the floating fiat currency. Just as Japan’s savers are being hammered by ZIRP financing that gives zero rewards for savings, the US is copying this noxious system while rewarding spenders by letting them keep much of what they consumed while savers get nothing.
ΩΩUS politicians know that hammering communist China, which protects its people and economy, will work so long as all other parts of the free trade gravy train for the very rich continues: China Emerges as a Popular Target in Political Ads – NYTimes.com
From the marquee battle between Senator Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina in California to the House contests in rural New York, Democrats and Republicans are blaming one another for allowing the export of jobs to its economic rival….Polls show that not only are Americans increasingly worried that the United States will have a lesser role in the years ahead; they are more and more convinced that China will dominate. In a Pew poll conducted in April, 41 percent of Americans said China was the world’s leading economic power, slightly more than those who named the United States.
…Never mind that there is hardly any consensus as to what exactly constitutes outsourcing and how many of the new overseas jobs would have stayed in American hands. The Democrats cite studies this year from the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research organization, that assert three million jobs have been outsourced to China since 2001 because of the growing trade imbalance.
But Republicans, backed by some academics, say the number is much smaller. Indeed, Scott Kennedy, director of the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business at Indiana University, said that most of the jobs China had added in manufacturing through foreign investment had come from Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea, not from the United States.
ΩΩOf course, this article refuses to point out the obvious: Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea all are, along with the unnamed Japan, the ones who exported jobs to mainland China and then…export these products to the US!!!! DUH. We lost jobs not to China but ALSO to Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea…and the unnamed Japan!!!! DUH. What will it take to figure out the obvious? A hammer to the head??? How many jobs must we lose before we are told the truth?
ΩΩAs for the 41% who think China is stronger than the US: they are CORRECT. China is a creditor nation that is growing stronger under a communist regime and the US is a debtor nation getting weaker under a faux democratic regime that is run by corporations, a Zionist media that protects a foreign power at all costs and rich international bankers who get richer the more they destroy our job base.
ΩΩWe should always imitate people who succeed. And the Chinese are succeeding. We are imitating the Japanese in ZIRP systems but not export power. We have to attack the yen and make it 74 to the dollar as quickly as possible, not the opposite. This, in turn, will move things in Asia into new directions. We can’t continue with Japan ravaging our domestic markets any longer.
23 responses to “74 Yen To Dollar By Next Year Scares Japan To Death”
did you see this one? or is it not in the news in the US? The so supposed ‘democratic country’ of the ME…
‘Israel to enforce ‘fascist’ law’
The Israeli ministers have endorsed a bill which obliges non-Semitic people to promise loyalty to Israel as “a Jewish and democratic state.”
The proposal, condemned by an Israeli minister as “fascist,” was approved 22-8 on Sunday, AFP reported, citing a statement by the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
If accepted by Knesset (the Israeli parliament), it would make the oath imperative on the non-Jewry, who wish to become an Israeli citizen.
“I am a net saver and this pisses me off.”
The question I have to ask – Are you storing this savings in US dollars? If so, why, since the value of dollars has only one way to go, and that’s down. (Except when another crisis creates a scramble out of equities and risk and back into dollars, but that will be temporary).
You are so right – the crowd in the casino realize the rigged game is falling apart and will indulge in a 11th hour intoxicated orgy of cheating and spending…..meanwhile……
BEIJING | Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:57am EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) – China has raised reserve requirements for six large commercial banks on a temporary basis, a surprise move to drain cash from the economy but avoid over-tightening, four sources told Reuters on Monday.
ELAINE: I am on a fixed income which is rather small. But I own property which is not encumbered and this is very much affected by property markets. I would love to own gold but can’t liquidate for that and that is also very speculative in itself. I love the older banking system when it was working properly. We should all love it: boring but careful.
Made a new song
“We should always imitate people who succeed. And the Chinese are succeeding”-EMS
So true Elaine. Notice that banking is essentially a public utility in China and not the private preserve of speculators.
America’s China Bashing: A Compendium of Junk Economics
by Michael Hudson
“There is a major exception, of course: the United States.”
Hi Elaine – off topic – a very interesting article about the massive fraud being perpetuated by large US banks. Seems that when they were writing up bad loans to enable massive profits via securatisation, they overlooked the importance of good paperwork. Now that they want to foreclose, the lodged titles in many cases are either inaccurate or don’t exist. Their solution – forge the documents and backdate them! Looks like another massive bailout for the “too big to fail” banks.
http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/ has a good article on the above.
Yes, the paper trail stinks. It is like in a fairy tale….should connect this to ancient stories of people acting like fools….
all the people crying about wealth redistribution dont want to loose it… at some point the rich started to think ‘they were rich’, and that in itself bears out a need for status quo
stuff like college, luxury cars, quality healthcare, and perfect neighbors can only be made a reality top down…. AND THEY LOVE IT
better get used to living in under rigid fear…. vibrant commerce is just harder to create than money
get me the best
San Francisco, San Diego, Dallas, New Orleans, Houston, Cincinnati, Chicago, and Green Bay are gone… and if the NY Jets fail, this road will grow even longer
I have quietly followed this EMS blog for a while, without any comments. This particular story and some of the more recent ones focused mostly on Japan and China and some on capital controls.
I found it to be interesting that several of the other blogs and internet news of the past week have also been ablaze with similar items, following the recent IMF meeting. Their story lines have discussed the issues of upcoming international currency wars and the apparent thrust of the US Fed and other policy agencies to push in that direction with more quantitative easing (printing debt dollars).
They imply that the ongoing financial crisis is as much a geopolitical maneuver as it is a serious issues of the full US economy, and these are not necessarily mutually inclusive issues- in fact they could be entirely mutually exclusive.
The story that caught my greatest attention was an article by Michael Hudson entitled “Why the US has launched a new financial world war and how the rest of the world will fight back”. I felt the most thought provoking quote from that Hudson article was
“The world is being forced to choose
between financial anarchy and
subordination to a new U.S. economic
nationalism. This is what is prompting
nations to create an alternative
financial system altogether.”
So, this raises a red flag! It would certainly be reassuring that we could rely on the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to effectively resolve the financial and economic crisis in the US and, secondarily, help out the rest of the nations. But, we are already strained by the propensity of our representatives to reflect questionable judgment and potentially illegal actions. But they are presumed to act on behalf, in some adjusted way, for the well being of the US citizens.
But, add into this mess, the implication that the US government policymakers, the US Treasury and the Federal Service may be deliberately acting to create a financial geopolitical war and it’s appalling. This looks like serfdom in the homeland and the policymakers will proudly lead the world to a feudal state! Hmm, this sounds like a deliberate, large scale, transition to the dark ages. Hey, but there were fewer people back then.
A link to the Hudson article is at:
Re:…..Indeed, our own administration firmly believes we can export our way to prosperity….
I agree with your theme.
On the surface, it can be argued that both the US and China have some merit to their respective claims of being the “victim” in the current “currency wars”.
In a “normal situation” the weaker gold based economy that is not a Hegemonic USD will enjoy a weaker currency against the Chinese Yuan. But it is also true the weaker economy would then NOT be able to be so deep in debt and China would not be able to accrue so much forex reserves.
It is true that China should not be allowed to continue its mercantilist strategies in the same “normal situation”.
Now the US push is unreasonable because Congress does not want to do the hard yards and repair its economy. Instead the US demands that China accept huge losses on its USD loans and wrech its economy by abruptly floating its Yen.
During the Asian crisis the US demanded harsh remedies which it now prefers to ignore in its own “Asian Crisis”.
The facts are the world needs a solution to save us all.
This means the US needs to be prepared to do the hard yards and China reciprocate by accepting some forex losses and gradually allow the Yen revalue upwards under some sort of deal.
This requires the US Congress to act as an adult and start addressing the structural deficits within its economic, political as well the public institutions so its people welfare becomes its national priority.
Will reason and wise leadership prevail?
Sadly, I fear not .
We hear a lot of USD ineptness from GFC, fraudulent foreclosures, BP oil spill cover up to Katrina recovery programs etc.
But we need to remember China has its share of inept behaviors as well today.
The difference with China is they have made the right decisions on core national strategies whilst suffering from a myriad of ineptness ranging from corruption, construction, fraudulent practices by local governments and private entities.
The lingo has changed overnight, ‘currency war’ = devalution, Q easing. Media is paving the way, Everyone! jumps to the line.
Not “titanic”, “tectonic”. Irresistible and most of the time nothing happens, but unrecognizable change comes via violent occasional upheavals.
@ Mr Bill
Re: A link to the Hudson article is at: http://tinyurl.com/2alyyjj )
Thank you for the link.
It is a sobering analysis and very disconcerting to see intelligent people in Washington preferring to persue an unsustainable strategy in the face of reality.
That Hudson editorial is spot on.
There is no easy money or easy lending ‘out’ for us. We have to literally work hard. This hard work means savings being used as capital for PRODUCTION that expands the economic base. War is one expansive form of economic base systems but it always leads to bankruptcy.
The only form of business that expands without destroying the overall economic system (as wars do) is modern manufacturing production systems that balance human and energy systems.
I read the Hudson article. I always wondered why the Chinese were inking two-way trade deals involving their own currency. I did not understand why they needed to do that. I thought all countries were free to pay for things in their own currency. I guess not. Now I know.
Problem with capitalism is that it only works on a community level basis, and with the agreement of all members of the community. Beyond that level, it rapidly morphes into a casino-style whirlwind of financial (and military) destruction run by criminal syndicates who answer to no one.
no such thing, just pain and suffering… AND ON THAT NOTE
the pension state, the healthcare state, the housing state, and the china state are in morass only they cant see it clear
if anything this whole fiasco is just the rise of central planned economys and the private sectors required solvency imbuement
high taxes are normal… so we need higher taxes… to be normal
serious tho’ where are the cartoons??? you need to employ serious stenography… like quick move the hands and just write the words sweety
ELAINE: I am involved in a frenzy of hard, hard labor with is using my hands very hard and it is hard to draw right now. Will be finished with this in another few weeks, thank god. My hands HURT.
US District Judge Virginia Phillips’s decision – widely cheered by gay-rights organizations nationwide – said in part, “There is no adequate remedy at law to prevent the continued violation of service members’ rights or to compensate them for violation of their rights.”
so the general said to the private… I didnt say freedom of speech, i said freedom to speak… or whatever
gay rights rule
Re: That Hudson editorial is spot on.
The Chilean rescue shows the better side of our humanity, resilience and leadership.
Americans, South Africans, Australians, China (the crane built for the rescue) and the Chileans worked to make the miracle happen. The Chileans were inspiring and magnificent.
Hopefully, Washington and Wall Street can do the same and work out collaborative solutions with the US, EU and BRIC to resolve the problems. All it takes is the courage to accept responsibility and negotiate pragmatic co-operation based on natural fairness and proportionately shared costs and rewards.
The Copenhagen Climate summit and recent IMF with G20 Currency conference failed because the west played clever and cunning games ignoring the valid concerns of developing countries and history.
Our collective problems is too big for such pettiness.
Hooray for gay rights! About time.
As for collaborations: impossible if everyone’s goal is to get the US to continue going deep into debt in trade and other things. No way. This is a true conflict. And we are conflicted at home: we want more tax cuts and wild spending.
Elaine said “I love the older banking system when it was working properly.”
Implying there was a properly functioning banking system in the past. Ridiculous! They were all corrupted, in private hands and only in place to give control to the very few over all.
There is this ‘Maoist’ contingent that believes money and banking is ‘evil’. So they want something different. Alas, this is a silly idea since it NEVER WORKS. Never unless you want to live in severe poverty.
The banking system grew up over the course of many centuries and had many failures but also MANY SUCCESSES. We know over time, what to avoid. We fail to avoid these dangers because we are tempted to pretend they are not a danger or we have tricks around them and over and over again, we see that these fail.
So I talk about the Cave of Wealth and Death and how we can use fairy tales and ancient myths to avoid making mistakes. There has to be a ‘moral’ basis to banking which means SOBER and CAREFUL and VIGILANT.
There is zero reason for killing all forms of banking all the time and trying for a magic money system that has not connection to any capital systems or anything real such as production leads to chaos and infinity in numbers backed by a dearth of real things.
Throwing away eons and eons of tradition is stupid. Very stupid.