The latest report that Tokyo is doomed to be hit by a major earthquake in the relative near future has interesting effects on the people there and what remains of a ‘government’: denial, laxity and fatalism. California is in the same boat and is reacting the same way to a similar fate. Only this is greeted with denial, laxity and drunken optimism. Also, Tokyo has to deal with another inevitable event: one of the several volcanoes that surround that major city will erupt and the only question is, which day exactly and how deadly the eruption.
The culture of Japan is suffused with a sense of impending doom and fatalism. The defiant challenges to the very gods of the earth, water and sky is the flip side of Japanese culture. One could say, they vacillate between the two extreme poles. It is definite that Japan today has flipped to the fatalism pole. And switching from this is increasingly difficult. One of the most dangerous legacies of a dying population which is increasingly elderly and anti-child is fatalism: if most are facing the Gates of Death rather than the sun rising in the East, paralysis and inability to escape danger rises with the age differentials.
The entire system there is being reset so that it cannot effect even the smallest changes. True, they shut down, temporarily, most of the nuclear power plants after Fukushima but this is temporary: all will probably be restarted since they are needed and the price of other fuels that have to be imported, will force this. But in general, there are zero measures to bring up the birthrate or to provide jobs for Japanese fathers wishing to start families.
And yes, the involvement of fathers is most important. We see in the West that the model of having the State pay for and provide for children of unmarried women is a total failure since this tends to produce males that are too dysfunctional for use even in the military, much less, the remaining job markets. Removal of the ‘heavy industrial’ jobs from males leads to despair and fatalism and this is expressed as crime, alcoholism and family abuse.
First, the inevitable earthquake: Anxiety and inattention over Tokyo’s next Big One – The Mainichi Daily News
An initial report on the likelihood of a major quake appeared in The Yomiuri Shimbun’s Jan. 23 morning editions. In a front-page exclusive, the daily reported the news with the banner headline: “70% chance of magnitude-7 level Tokyo earthquake within 4 yrs.” The Nikkei, The Tokyo Shimbun and the Mainichi Shimbun followed suit in their evening editions and The Asahi Shimbun and The Sankei Shimbun caught up with them in their Jan. 24 editions. All trailing dailies had almost identical headlines.
TV stations quickly reported the news through their news departments as well as in other programs. Overwhelmed by a barrage of reports by news organizations, the ERI published a special explanation online to account for the reasons behind the Yomiuri report.
Adding a twist to the saga was the fact that the ERI’s study team had reported its predictions at an open forum last fall, and they were covered by the mass media. Looking back, the Mainichi Shimbun reported in its Sept. 17, 2011 editions that there was a 98 percent chance of a magnitude 7-level earthquake striking the metropolitan region within 30 years.
According to Hirata, a 98 percent chance within 30 years and a 70 percent chance within four years mean the same thing. But human beings, as they are, take the 30-year span lightly and are surprised by the four-year timeline. The Yomiuri keenly restructured the publicized data and emphasized the period “within four years,” causing a big public reaction and forcing other news outlets to follow suit.
This island is home to some major, major dragons we should all dread: the Earthquake Dragon, the Volcano Dragon and the Tsunami Dragon. They snooze happily for generations and then, with little warning, suddenly erupt in rage and slay many thousands of people and destroy everything puny humans erect. This is true in other places: Indonesia, for example and the Mediterranean cultures where there are volcanoes and tsunamis, too, not to mention earthquakes (Italy, Greece and Turkey as well as the islands in between).
What amuses me is that people are relaxed when told, a deadly earthquake or eruption will definitely happen in the next 30 years. As Scarlett O’Hara loved to say in Gone With the Wind, ‘Tomorrow is another day!’ Many in Tokyo, despite seeing 9.0+quakes hit Chile, Indonesia and eastern Japan, imagine that this could or would happen to them. Just as the foolish builders of nuclear power plants in the US and Japan ignored 7.5+ quakes in these places, people like to imagine future quakes will be manageable rather than giant eruptions of Dragon might like we have seen several times this decade!
True, the AVERAGE quake in California, Mississippi valley or Tokyo MAY be only 7.0 but we know that is easily can be much, much worse! And this is why people need to know this information: learning it the hard way is OK if one wishes for a Darwinian solution to ‘The Meaning of Life’ but dying this way is very unhappy and putting nuclear power plants in the path of this sort of destruction is insane.
The US, certainly, knows that ALL nuclear power plants within a 1,000+mile radius of the junction of the Mississippi River and the Missouri River and the Ohio River is insane. We KNOW for CERTAIN that the chances of another 9.0+ event there is overwhelming and all we don’t know is, the exact date. Yet, paralysis reigns here just like in Japan.
At the outset of a news conference on Jan. 27, Tokyo Gov. Ishihara mentioned disaster-prevention steps, believing there would be questions about the University of Tokyo’s predictions. However, none of the questions related to the earthquake predictions. His 30-minute news conference solely covered questions about the new political party under consideration. The shocking reports about a 70 percent chance of an earthquake hitting the metropolitan area within four years didn’t appear to make a dent at all at the news conference.
Just like here, reporters can ignore reality. The politicians ignore reality. Between them, they can paper over nearly everything except…reality. Ishihara expected questions, got none so he let sleeping Dragons lie. This is how the US media and the Pentagon cover issues of US diplomacy leading to war. Passive in the extreme when talking about preventing wars, they love to talk about who to whack, next. And neither they nor the politicians talk about how to pay for these wars. Ever. And are not asked by the press or is it debated (the need to suppress Ron Paul was of top priority for all parties this year!).
Here is an earthquake map for the region around Tokyo showing the lower level tremors last week: 地震情報 – 2012年1月28日 7時39分 – 日本気象協会 tenki.jp
This map was made early in the day. Lots of 4.0 quakes right next to Tokyo centered on one of the volcanoes there.
It got much worse Just a few minutes later in the day. Here is a map I made showing some of the Dragons that snooze maw to claw right next to metropolitan Tokyo. Most of Japan lives here, the outer edges of Japan are being very rapidly depopulated with the East Coast nearly deserted at this point on Honshu Island, the main island.
Here is a graph showing the complex geology of Mt. Fuji:
Fuji GeologyCross section showing structure of Fuji Volcano (by Miyaji et al., 1992; modified from Tsuya, 1968)
Older Fuji Volcano started its activity 80 ka and ended 11 ka. Its activity was characterized by the ejection of voluminous pyroclastic falls. Total volume of the ejecta is estimated as 250 km^3. Large-scale mudflows (Older Fuji mudflows), generated from pyroclastic-flows and debris-avalanche deposits, also characterizes the older volcano.
The smaller eruption points near Mt. Fuji lie in a narrow band from southeast to northwest following the main fracture lines of the intersection of several major tectonic plates just to the southeast of Mt. Fuji. These eruption points make this mountain extremely dangerous and hard to call in future eruptions. Past eruptions also show a pattern that should worry Tokyo tremendously:
Virtually every time, the eruption would cause debris to blow over Tokyo and Tokyo Bay! Now, at no time has Mt. Fuji completely blown away its crown but then, many a similar volcano of huge size (Mt. Fuji is one of the bigger ones on earth) would erupt merrily for thousands and thousands of years until they are quite tall and a perfect triangle in shape and then…they have a ‘dirty eruption’. and the top literally blows off and away! Here is what this paper about eruptions says about the future:
HAHAHA. This huge Dragon makes pretty flowers! It is a tourist spot! It is an icon. It is exactly what Mt. Vesuvius was to Italy. Until it had its own Plinian eruption. A volcano can have dozens of small eruptions and still, the next one isn’t guaranteed to be equally small! Using tephras of the past to assume the future will be the same is insane.
What one has to do is look at how the several tectonic plates are pushing harder and harder every year as Australia charges northwards. The eruptions will be bigger and bigger, not smaller and smaller. Italy’s volcanoes are not getting smaller and smaller, they are erupting worse and worse as the much slower moving but immensely bigger African plate moves remorsefully into Europe. Eventually, the Mediterranean Sea will be on top of mountains higher than Mt. Everest.
Back to other issues equally difficult for Japan: IMF urges Japan to triple consumption tax to reduce debt. They can’t do this. They won’t do this so it won’t happen. The hope is, nothing will ever happen. But like with geology, finances are equally easy to track and relentless in nature. Like a geologist digging into the ground to read the past, we can read the future of Japan’s finances: the eruption, the tsunami and the earthquake will all happen and will erase Japan from the map of the earth one day if this continues to fatally roll onwards to ‘infinity’.
The fatal Fukushima Dragon won’t go away, either. Here is the dysfunctional, insane government talking about the future of cleaning up this impossible mess: “Decontamination” Defined by Ministry of the Environment Is Nothing But a General, Thorough Cleaning by Hand | EX-SKF Then there is this story of a Japan Defense employee going insane from taking care of his 75 year old mother: Woman dead, son unconscious in apparent murder-suicide. He made some surface cuts to himself after strangling her with a telephone cord.
The battle between the sexes and the battle between the generations will only get worse over time since there is no resolution possible with a paralyzed government. Just as the Japanese overlords sat idle while, after Mt. Fuji erupted 200 years ago, dooming many thousands and thousands of Japanese to die of starvation, so it is with the present ‘leaders’. They feel, if they do nothing, it won’t matter since killing off the elderly somehow, has to happen.
Japan is fitfully talking about this news: Japan’s population to shrink two thirds by 2110
The population is forecast to decline from the current 127.7 million to 86.7 million by 2060 and to tumble again to 42.9 million by 2110 “if conditions remain unchanged,” the health and welfare ministry said in the report.
The projections by the ministry’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research forecast that Japanese women would on average have just 1.35 babies, well below the replacement rate, within 50 years.
The report said that last year’s earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan, which left more than 19,000 people dead or missing, hit average life expectancy but that the figure was expected to continue its upward trend.
Japan’s life expectancy—one of the highest in the world—is expected to rise from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men.
When the majority of women are too old to have children, it ends very swiftly. If there are less than 50 million Japanese and the average age is over 45 years (this is what happens when life expectancy for women is 91 years!) then the birth rate simply collapses to virtually zero in little time. If there are 100 women and half are over 45 and a quarter are child bearing age and a quarter are children, only if men decide to protect women and have very large families, will this turn around.
Turning around dying cultures is very, very, very hard. People who are old don’t like doing things differently and if they are the majority, that kills all initiatives. We see this already in Japan. In any other country, there would be an uprising already but not Japan! High, high suicide and now rising family murder rates are the rule there. Their ship is sinking and the captains don’t know what to do or rather, they are jumping ship and moving out.
A major geological event centered on Tokyo will tip the scales to full abandonment by the top tier. This really alarms me. Living in such a fragile and special place requires great courage and above all, HOPE. And this is what Japan is losing rapidly: hope for a future. Instead, the elites play games like this: Deadlock in Russia-Japan islands row hard to break and the Japanese government intends to name disputed islands near China with Japanese names despite harsh warnings from Beijing.
Japan is losing control if its main island base! Japan’s biggest land holdings is going into destruction! And they focus on these things? This is a sign that Japan’s leadership is mentally dead and have given up all hope of keeping their main base functional. They dream of the old imperialist days instead of focusing on the obvious future and picking things to do that are dreadfully necessary.
And just now is this story: Labor ministry releases definition of ‘power harassment’. ‘
A labor ministry official said that defining “pawahara” represents the first step toward dealing with the issue, TV Asahi reported.
In the report, the panel defines power harassment as any kind of behavior in which a senior person takes advantage of his or her position in the workplace to cause coworkers physical or psychological pain.
The report outlines six different acts that would constitute power harassment. These are asking junior employees to perform impossible tasks, committing acts of violence and other physical offenses, causing emotional stress, isolating or ignoring individuals, asking personal questions, and giving an employee nothing or very little to do.
Nearly all the comments to this news is humorous. More than one person said, this is the definition of the entire government and bureaucracy of Japan! And they are correct: this is how the government is run. More than one comment in this Japanese news site mentions the courts being totally corrupted and siding with the power structure. There is discontent in Japan and it so far has no outlets.
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