Small Earthquake At San Jacinto/San Andreas Intersection Bodes Ill

San Jacinto fault zone: This is one of several parallel fault lines that run alongside the sleeping dragon, the mighty San Andreas.  These wrinkles and tears in the landscape are not the separation point of the North American continent and the Pacific Plate: that is the San Andreas.  The quake today is ominous since it is at the very top of the San Jacinto fault that lies closest to the San Andreas.  And the frozen section of that huge fault had several very small but telling quakes nearby today.

I note these in particular since this section of the San Andreas has been totally and completely silent for quite a while.  Below is a map from the last hour showing the action:

NASA ADS: Interaction between the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in southern California: A 3D numerical model

NASA ADS: Interaction between the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in southern California: A 3D numerical modelIn southern California, most of the Pacific-North America plate motion is taken up by the subparallel San Andreas Fault (SAF) and San Jacinto Fault (SJF). Geological studies of slip history on these two faults show strong codependence.

We have developed a 3D finite element model to simulate long term dynamic interaction between these two faults and its impact on active crustal deformation and seismicity in southern California. The model includes an elastoplastic upper crust and viscoelastic lower crust, with simplified fault geometry.

The computational intensive multi-timescale fault interaction, including co-seismic plastic deformation and viscoelastic interseismic loading, is calculated with parallel computers. We found that the geometry of the SAF, especially its Big Bend in South California, would cause a stress and strain energy field favorable for initiation and growth of the SJF. Once the SJF has initiated, it causes decrease of fault slip rate on the southernmost SAF, consistent with observations.

The SJF also cause a belt of concentrated strain energy that coincides spatially with the East California Shear Zone (ECSZ).

This is a very dangerous intersection of powerful earth movements!  Naturally, this is where humans decided to build a lot of stuff.  First, a history of the earthquakes along the 100 miles of the  San Jacinto Fault Zone – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

  • 1918 San Jacinto Earthquake – Magnitude 6.9 earthquake strikes the same area that was damaged by an earthquake 19 years earlier, with an epicenter roughly 10 mi NW of the previous earthquake. GPS Coordinates
  • 1923 North San Jacinto Fault Earthquake – Magnitude 6.3 earthquake damaged the San Bernardino and Redlands area. Last time the fault, which runs under the I-215/I-10 interchange, ruptured in this area. GPS Coordinates
  • 1937 Terwilliger Valley Earthquake – Magnitude 6.0 GPS Coordinates
  • 1942 Fish Creek Mountains Earthquake – Magnitude 6.3 GPS Coordinates
  • 1954 Arroyo Salada Earthquake – Magnitude 6.2 GPS Coordinates
  • 1968 Borrego Mountain Earthquake – Magnitude 6.5 GPS Coordinates
  • 1987 Superstition Hills Earthquake – Magnitude 6.6 (Note: some consider it to have occurred on a fault completely unrelated to the San Jacinto Fault Zone) GPS Coordinates
  • 2010 Borrego Springs – Magnitude 5.4.[17] This quake was believed by seismologists to have been possibly triggered by the strong earthquake which occurred on Easter of the same year near Calexico.

[edit]

Now, all the quakes listed here are the southern half of the fault.  The only one even close to where today’s earthquake happened was the 1923 quake.  Both of my parents were born that year and my grandfather joked about how they were birthed quickly due to the shaking.

Here is the quake location today:

The San Andreas is roughly where the highway is (drivers, beware!).  What is horrifying is how a developer was allowed to stick his little new suburban hell right dead center where not one but THREE major faults converge!  The little curly cue to the upper northwest perimeter of the quake is this:

Those poor, sad people!  The ‘rivers’ there run right next to these very badly located homes, too!  The geology here screams, ‘DO NOT BUILD’ but of course, this was totally ignored.  Here is a story from slightly more than 2 years ago when a quake happened along this fault further south of the present event:  San Jacinto Fault | OC Science

So here is the vital study showing the terrible doom that awaits LA and all the huge complexes of suburbs like Hollywood or San Bernardino.

Note the stats here:  39 oil & gas lines cross this monster???  90 optic cables!  32 water?  And 141 power lines.  Wow.  Imagine our government fixing all of this in a hurry while EVERYONE on the other side, that is, all of LA and all outlying areas, go without virtually ANYTHING?  These are frankly impossible numbers for all of this has to be done while trying to keep the city from burning down or mobs of hysterical refugees pouring out of the outlying suburbs who can only run TOWARDS LA, not away from it.  From the frying pan into the fire, indeed.

HAHAHA…the people of LA better talk to the people who survived Katrina about how swiftly the government saves the civilians!  Is there any way in hell that 17.5+ million people will get say, WATER?  Seriously?  How many ships would be needed to bring in say, FOOD?  Do we have any?  HA.  Nope.  We got rid of our civilian shipping industries.

We could ask the Japanese but are they here or several day’s sailing away?  Will ships show up with the things we need in less than 60 hours?  Is there a Santa Claus in the house?  No?  Too bad!  There might be a few boats pulling in but how will they be unloaded and move the goods towards the disaster?  They would have to drive through a very heavily armed city with anxious armed civilians wanting stuff.

The military?  Well…China will volunteer to patrol for us since our troops and above all, our National Guard that no longer guards the nation, are off over in the Middle East protecting Saudi Arabia and Israel.

We spread our forces across the earth so Europe is protected.  Japan is protected.  The US is not protected.  Nor will they all come home.  The US will let the civilians flounder and quite frankly, die.  Like New Orleans.  South Central LA will be left to its own devices!

The Federal plan has all sorts of ways of ‘messaging’ each other and ‘triage’ committees but who is the dudes on the ground, the grunts, the plebes who do the actual work?  They frankly are not here.  Here is a map supposing the escape route desperate and dying civilians will take when they flee the catastrophe and all those who suddenly have no water, electricity or anything:

Now, don’t laugh too hard: the civilians are supposed to go to arenas!  Another reason they should talk to the New Orleans survivors!  Wow!  Talk about insane.  I figured out what one of the ‘S’ dots are:  March Air Force Base.

Just north of that base is Loma Linda which was in the news last year:  Redlands and Loma Linda Take Part in Largest Earthquake Drill Ever.  They were supposed to do the ‘stop, drop and cover’ drills.  Which are mostly useless.  All videos and personal experiences I have had or seen or whatever clearly shows that people do anything but that!  Namely, people try to stop things from falling or run like hell for the exits.  Mostly, though, they freeze in place and say, ‘What is happening?’  Or just freeze.

This is due to the nature of quakes: little to no warning and even if one wants to go away to a safe place, it is nearly impossible due to the shaking.  A one-shot exercise won’t override the natural inclination to freeze or catch stuff or attempting to run away no matter how dangerous that is.

Now for the bad news for all civilians (remember New Orleans with one tenth the population!):

Health and Human Services: Provide Health and Medical Services

Provide Acute Care – Hospital/EMS

Hospital functionality will be decreased by an estimated 30%, as much as 75 % in specific OAs. An estimated 13,000 beds are lost.

•Demand will exceed capabilities; the system is currently taxed under normal conditions.

•Shortages will exist in hospital equipment, including beds and prescription medications affecting patient care.

•For the remaining hospitals to continue operation, they will immediately need water, fuel, pharmaceuticals and personnel.

•Approximately 2,600 public and private ambulances exist in California; about 27% are fire-based.

Provide Chronic Care – Medical Special Needs, Mental Health

• •

Initially, 40% of Medical Special Needs (MSN) patients will require assistance immediately with an additional 40% requiring care within 72 hours and the remaining 20% of the population requiring care within the first week.

Local jurisdictions will require significant amount of State and Federal resources to care for the large numbers of survivors with special medical needs.

Execute Patient Evacuation/Movement

• • •

Patient tracking systems among health care system components are currently not integrated. The ability to coordinate and control the flow of all patients requiring movement is limited.

Many roads, highways, and bridges will be impassable in the first few days after the earthquake due to damage and debris on the roads, hampering patient movement.

Maintain Public Health (food, water, vector control, food and water quality inspection, surveillance)

Local health departments, supported by mutual aid and the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), have sufficient resources to initiate evaluation and response. Veterinary care capacity is inadequate; vector monitoring and public health support staff will exist.

Provide Care and Shelter, Including Animals

• • • •

• •

2,600 current potential shelter structures will have to be inspected before they can be available. 255,000 displaced households, an estimated 542,000 people, will require emergency shelter.

Although no estimate exists, a large percentage of the displaced population is expected to have pets. Mass care operations will also require:

– – – – –

Potable Water Sanitation Disposal Security Mental Health Functional Needs

Over 8 million estimated cases of mental health (distress/disorders). Overflow veterinary facilities will have to be identified in other counties not impacted and possibly other states. Priority must be given to ESF 8.

Conduct Mass Fatality Operations

An estimated 1,800 deaths are anticipated in the region. •Shortages in equipment and material to support and identify fatalities will

exist. •No State Coroner or Medical Examiner (ME) exists, thus the counties must

rely on the mutual aid system. •Within the impacted OAs, a surge capacity exists to store a total of 1400

remains: LA County can surge up to a capacity of 600 bodies; approximately 200 mortuaries exist with varying capacity; 4 mobile morgues exist with a capacity of 40-50 each.

•Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Teams (DMORTs) and DoD Mortuary Affairs Team can help with processing and identification; however there will be a shortage in capable mortuary and other personnel.

Support Mandatory and Self-Evacuations, including Logistical Needs

• • •

Evacuation may be limited due to non-passable roadways and vehicle-borne evacuees with vehicles containing limited gas. Conflagrations in downtown L.A. force the evacuation of 130,000 people within the first 72 hours.

Attrition of the workforce is estimated to be nearly 50%, thus hampering evacuation operations.

Read their own basically optimistic estimates!  Thousands dead, downtown LA on fire for three days at least.  Over half a million needing shelter!  We know from other disasters, the pets will die or be abandoned.  We are talking a million+ animals here.  Possibly 10 million+.  This study mentions the nuclear power plants where the jelly fish shut down this week.

Establish Emergency Power and Fuel Lines of Supply

There are not enough stockpiled emergency supplies available to restore power after the event.

Supply Emergency Water and Sanitation Needs for Response Operations

Resources to move the water, such as water tenders, are very limited and will need coordination.

•Chemicals needed for water treatment/ decontamination may not be readily available because of hazardous materials restrictions and transportation infrastructure damage.

Imported water supplies will be very limited following the event. Water supply will be restricted to storage at the time of the event and the capability to produce groundwater.

•Water needed for fire-fighting may be required to meet certain quality standards regarding chemical and contamination levels.

•Concern will arise over hooking up to recycled and/or contaminated supplies. •Availability of water that meets standards will be a problem. •Over 300 reservoirs are in the affected area. •Distribution systems and hydrants will be inoperable.

•San Bernardino and Riverside may be releasing untreated sewage into the Santa Ana River due to damage to the system and lack of power supply, which would directly affect environmental conditions in the river as well as water supplies through contamination of groundwater spreading grounds over a long period of time.

Yes, this is a HUGE mess that is impending.  Like nuclear power accidents, once events happen, more events happen and stopping the consequent disasters is very hard especially if a country puts most of its military and much of its money and attention being lavished on the opposite side of the planet!  There is no way our government can cope with the looming catastrophe.

Here is the pretty graph showing how our government will handle this catastrophe:

In reality, they will all be chickens with their heads cut off.  Since all the time, attention and money is being lavished on aliens on the opposite side of the planet, since our navy is mainly in the Persian Gulf and other distant waters, since DC doesn’t give a damn about US citizens in general, this sickening refusal to protect, assist and serve the US voters will continue its destruction.  That is, the guys at the top don’t give one damn if any of the people in the LA region survive.

And the money isn’t there anymore.  It is gone.  Paying for fixing the San Andreas Great Quake will not be there.  We gave it all away.  Trillions and trillions are parked overseas thanks to free trade.  And the rich don’t want to pay taxes to set up a fund to protect us from a catastrophe in California and that state is broken and broke.  Dead broke.  Can’t fund a turkey shoot, much less, rescuing 17 million citizens.

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4 Comments

Filed under Geology, Politics

4 responses to “Small Earthquake At San Jacinto/San Andreas Intersection Bodes Ill

  1. emsnews

    Also in the news, the http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/03/MNL41NEDT5.DTL&ao=all
    gas line explosion in San Francisco 2010 was definitely caused by a shallow earthquake according to geologists who testified about it just this week!

    I am happy I called that one correctly back then.

  2. Peter

    I always get freaked out in a big city and cannot relax until I am back home.
    I imagine getting stuck there with no flights out and no way to get home..and no spare water or food….talk about anxiety attacks!
    LA would be the biggest nightmare,just the grid going down would cut off all their water.

  3. Peter

    Last 6 days 5 earthquakes off Vancouver Island..don’t think they are relieving any stress on the Cascadia fault…maybe a sign?

  4. Being There

    You put it all together, Elaine (I thought of you as soon as I heard about the quake yesterday)

    I love the way you point out once again how utterly destructive the globalism paradigm is and in real practical terms how it has failed the people of this country. We never stop hearing propaganda about how wonderful globalism is. How it raises all ships (and lowers ours). How the hatred of government that serves the people as the ongoing cant of the Republican party has destroyed many of the safeguards we had in the past. (I won’t go into the food industry and the EPA right now)
    Yes, as I’ve said before, we have gone from the can do country to the I don’t know how to do anything but play on my smartphone society…..
    I do not look forward to the day the birds come hoe to roost.

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