Source: Bender et al. 2010. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – Global Warming and Hurricanes Figures
Everyone is talking, mostly while shivering in an early Autumn here in the US with blizzards already in the Pacific Northwest. Naturally, this cold weather heralds the UN climate prediction report that claims that we are going to roast to death for sure. Appended to their alarmist report is the contrary one talking about global cooling. As a footnote, the ‘consensus’ of the global warming group is 95-100% certain we will roast, not freeze. But tell that to those of us who are feeling the cold breath of the Ice Queen earlier than normal. The trees here are changing color fast this fall here in upstate NY. And there are still near zero hurricanes, too, while there is a persistent La Nina event.
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 453 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013 ...EARLY SEASON HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING... .THE SECOND PORTION OF A COMPLEX AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL GOING THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. TRAVEL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
From just last week is this news: Latest winter outlook not exactly music to snow lovers’ ears:
The August prediction so far has correctly predicted the Northwest would have a warm September. Through Wednesday, the average temperature was running 4.4 degrees ahead of normal. But going into October, it now predicts a rainy start to fall, with above average chances for a wetter than average month, and equal chances for temperature being cooler…However, expand the forecasts out to 90 days and now all of a sudden they are picking up a signal indicating slightly greater chances of a warmer than normal late fall and winter across much of the West — particularly the Southwest, but the western Pacific Northwest is on the edge of the warm bubble.
The wet spot in the Atlantic has a less than 20% chance of turning into a tropical storm of any sort. The collapse of the Atlantic Hurricane season of 2013 is now epic. Virtually nil which is highly unusual. And doesn’t fit the computer model at the top of my story which shows predictions of many more hurricanes if global warming is happening now. The model for more hurricanes is one of the key stone pieces in the global warming model. And failure to have even one hurricane has huge implications.
It means the computer models are totally wrong. Fixing this is fairly easy, all they have to do is to include sun spot activity in the models. Sunspots do not cause climate change, say scientists in 2009. Don’t Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says in 2006. The erasure of the sun as a major driver of all climate change for the last several billion years is quite a magician’s trick only it fools mainly global warming believers. This is sort of a ‘who do you trust, your own eyes or me?’
150 years of astronomy thrown out the window. Denial of sun spot activity is key to keeping all the computer models for warming working. So, taking a deep breath, we have the official UN report that we are all going to die of heat stroke: Climate Panel Says Upper Limit on Emissions Is Nearing – NYTimes.com
The new report finds a 95 to 100 percent chance that most of the warming of recent decades is human-caused, up from the 90 to 100 percent chance cited in the last report, in 2007.
But the new document also acknowledges that climate science still contains huge uncertainties, including the likely magnitude of the warming for a given level of emissions, the rate at which the ocean will rise, and the likelihood that plants and animals will be driven to extinction.
Here are two graphs showing the global warming one and the alternative one that shows things staying pretty much normal. People get to decide which is more true to nature. Except we have zero say in all this. The people who want to tax energy and cut off access to energy in the cold northern hemisphere countries is very strong. The only reason the tropical, warm parts of the world support taxing heating energy costs is because the very rich promised them a whole lot of money in the future if they tax people in cold climates.
A win/win for the warm places! They get our money and they enjoy warm weather while workers in the norther parts freeze. Make no mistake: this global warming business is all about enforcing a freeze in the north. Here are some news clippings from the previous very cold cycle which was a mere 40 years ago: 1975 : Tornado Outbreaks Blamed On Global Cooling | Real Science
1973 : 100% NSF Global Cooling Consensus | Real Science and 1978 Consensus – Warm Winters Are A Thing Of The Past | Real Science are reminders that predictions are a tricky thing indeed. One of the predictions lately made by ‘scientists’ was that we would have both a longer and deeper el Nino events and more hurricanes. Both of which are not happening: NOAA El Niño: Research, Forecasts and Observations from the recent past:
Developing La Niña Conditions Expected to Continue
Sat, 10 Jan 2009 08:29:40 EST
During December 2008, negative equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies strengthened across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. Convection remained suppressed near the International Date Line and became more persistent near Indonesia during December. Low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds also strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these conditions reflect the development of La Niña. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation across the South, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States. Details…El Nino Arrives Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10
Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:59:20 EDT
NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Nino, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Nino, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months NOAA expects this El Nino to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10. Details…
Except is faded very fast. The following spring of 2010, the el Nino which was quite weak, faded fast and immediately a la Nina event began which is still ongoing:
Latest El Nino/Southern Oscillation discussion includes a La Nina Watch
Tue, 08 Jun 2010 06:05:24 EDT
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued its monthly El Nino/Southern Oscillation discussion, which also includes a La Nina Watch. This indicates that La Nina–a cooling of Equatorial Pacific Ocean waters–is expected during the next three months. This could enhance the strength of the Atlantic hurricane season.
We see that the ocean off the West Coast is colder than normal still. And the la Nina which is supposed to be fading according to NOAA isn’t fading so far. And note how we have near zero hurricanes in the Atlantic despite so many reports claiming that la Ninas cause increased hurricanes in the Atlantic. This has to be resolved not via tricks or eliminating information.
The cause and effect of solar sun spot activity must be addressed scientifically, not fantastically. It has to be taken quite seriously. there is a near-100% chance we will eventually have another Ice Age. History makes this very clear. Perhaps our only chance to stop this is via more greenhouse gasses. This is a life and death debate. The other issue about the mass destruction of world forests is another issue entirely.
Too many humans in the warm tropics are mainly the drivers in this matter. Elimination of forests is a serious issue. And cutting off people from access to other fuels means more have to, like myself, resort to cutting down trees to stay warm.
Email:
emeinel@fairpoint.net
MAILING ADDRESS:
EMS NEWS
P.O. BOX 483
BERLIN, NY 12022
Make checks out to ‘Elaine Supkis’
Click on the Pegasus icon on the right sidebar to donate via Paypal.
Culture of Life News 
There is a lot of power to be controlled by the climate controllers.
And where there is power there is money to be stolen/taxed to feed those who do the controlling.
Climate studies are not science; but they play one in the media.
Theres a strong rumor that the group Van was with started the LA riot after
Rodney King verdict. Many died.
Meet Van Jones.
n March 2009 Jones was appointed by President Barack Obama to the newly created position of Special Advisor for Green Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation at the White House Council on Environmental Quality, where he worked with various “agencies and departments to advance the administration’s climate and energy initiatives, with a special focus on improving vulnerable communities.
Orwellian, eh?
They want us to ignore the last 17 years that show NO global rising temperatures(while the dreaded CO2 increased),and believe their models that keep getting it wrong.
Yes,it is about power and money of course.
We just need a few more years of flat or dropping temperatures combined with the recovery of arctic sea ice to hopefully shut down thus insanity.
But then what would the IPCC do ?They will be like NORAD blundering around the world trying to justify their existence.
Once these govt entities develop they are almost impossible to destroy,they just keep growing like a huge tumor.
Have they freed those yachts from the North West Passage yet?:)
I meant NATO not NORAD.
This is all about consolidating oil resources now that we have hit Peak Oil. The elite want the lion’s share to continue their lives of luxury.
A few years ago I sent you this link.
http://www.moma.org/interactives/exhibitions/2012/foreclosed/buell_hypothesis
http://buellcenter.org/research-programs/buell-hypothesis/buell-hypothesis
The Buell Hypothesis consists of convincing us serfs to give up the house, the yard, the car and move into rabbit hutch apartment blocks. Take a look at it again. They use the foreclosure crisis to put this shock doctrine to the public. The paper mentions nothing about the super rich’s vast estates which are resource hogs.
So I guess in a few years, if we don’t all move into their little “parks” we will be taxed on land, water and energy at usurious rates. And you can forget about burning forest wood, Elaine. They will take it from you and everyone else who wants to live closer to the land.
Would ever “Science” admit that it might be wrong?
melponeme_k..I did click..I cant get thru all that…what the fu-k is MoMA doing pushing this crap? AGENDA 21.
‘ Make no mistake: this global warming business is all about enforcing a freeze in the north. ‘ Catch Al Gore on PBS?
Gore went on about global warming of course, but Rose failed to ask him about his $500 million bank account, his private Jet Stream Aircraft, his yachts on the Tennessee and Potomac Rivers, and his stately mansion.
Al Gore, energy whore. Or more accurately, energy hog.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a bureaucratic committee with a specific brief to provide a cover story that humans and only human activity (anthropogenic) is causing change in climate. Their terms of reference are only to monitor human activity and do not include factors that we know change the climate from other sources such as the sun, cosmic radiation etc. This is why the scientists model projections will always be wrong they are excluding factors they do not understand and also excluded by official design. Water vapour and methane have a much greater effect that carbon dioxide, yet are sidelined because the officials and their backers figure they can tax our energy use and setup their licence to pollute aka indulgences aka carbon trading derivatives.
The scam works as follows working group 1 is told to provide the scientific basis for human caused global warming, the other two groups have to accept the finds of working group 1 and it’s from these other groups that the “we’re all gonna’ drown”, “go extinct due to ” unless we pay money to these special interest groups comes from. There is an additional twist the IPCC committee releases a policy document for government first before the findings of working group 1 are released which must be changed so there is no contradiction with the policy group.
The 95% certainty rate over the previous 90% in AR4 is an obvious fraud since we know about the climategate emails, bad science and statistics, biased computer models that have been shown to be totally wrong and measured data that has not proven their hypothesis.
… so let’s keep doing this gigantic chemistry experiment with the air on our little planet.
Because air goes on forever.
Thanks, El K, yrs is the best brief explanation of the scam I have ever read!
The first site graphs ocean temperature anomalies off a baseline average from 1971-2000. It shows the west coast of North America as measured slightly higher than the average.
Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, Sept 15-21 2013
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia Univ
http://goo.gl/Z0ifKc
And the latest ENSO report notes that as well, but calls for a neutral winter.
ENSO Predictions and Measurements, Sept 2013 Report
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia Univ
http://goo.gl/Tp5Cbg
Breaking news: polar bears are doing just fine.
Yes, that is the news! No shock here.
Shrinking atmosphere linked to low solar radiation – http://artsandsciences.colorado.edu/magazine/2010/08/shrinking-atmosphere-linked-to-low-solar-radiation/
August 2010
not sure its wise to ally yourself with Fox news on this one
Relative to current levels, the Dalton Minimum represents a 0.08% decrease in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, and the Maunder Minimum represents a 0.25% decline. That’s how stable solar activity is. That’s also why we’re playing with fire by increasing the greenhouse effect so much and so quickly.
from those idiots at realclimate, but not sure how they explain iceage , looking into it
z house,
This has me confuzzled as well. On most issues, Elaine does not follow the Fox News version of the story. … but this … this has her linking to Steven Goddard and other right-wing tinfoil crackpot websites.
As for the global climate, we are adding a blanket to the atmosphere … also acidifying the oceans. I suppose the good news is that no one will begin to suffocate until the CO2 level gets up to about ten times what it is now. This event is unprecedented in geologic history. There is some evidence of episodes of high CO2 levels, but they were always a follow-on to some other climate change event.
I do agree, however, that the “carbon credit” scheme being pushed by the elites is nothing but more financial fraud from the same crew that brought us “too big to fail”. It will not accomplish anything.
Jim yes, the only hope for elaines theory is that ice ages are open for debate and unresolvable now, so solar flux is as good as another. Where i live ihave noticed little change, a contiuation of 100yrs glacier melt. But the last 10 yrs have seen milder winters for sure .
The sad truth is, the climate has yo yoed greatly in the last 2 million years. A slight change in solar output leads to HUGE changes here. Huge! And what caused the Ice Ages?
I place all my bets on the sun. The sun triggers it and when the earth is in the proper cycle relative to the distance to the sun which causes the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE to slant away from the sun leads to Ice Ages and we are definitely heading in that direction.
And I am not a ‘crank’ but base my information on solid astronomical knowledge. The cranks who are denying solar primary cause are the true cranks.
They have gone way over the line lying about solar input. Way over the line. I don’t care if Fox news agrees with me. I am NOT getting data from them at all, they are getting it from me and my primary sources, astronomers.
The “Steven Goddard” website is a crank website. I was going to post a link to an image he had, showing exactly the opposite of what he said in his text, but could not find it when I went back, since he posts about fifty un-researched articles a day. Sitting in the back of class throwing spitwads is not “science”. He did post some nice clips from “The Wizard of Oz”, but I have seen that movie.
Elaine, I’ll have to concede that the Sun varies a bit in its output, and the variance is in sync with the sunspot cycle. And this past year or two, we have had an unusually low sunspot count, whatever that means. However, adding an infrared-scattering gas to the atmosphere will also change the climate at the surface.
It has changed the climate in the stratosphere as well, and in some unexpected ways. For example, the jet stream — not only has the pattern moved toward the poles, it has broken up. It used to stretch all the way around the earth, but now the meanders have spawned loops, and those loops are getting ‘stuck’ here and there. That was not predicted decades ago. And the stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere warms. That could have been predicted, but was not, until better computer models came out.
While we can’t do anything about the Sun, if it decides to go out or burn warmer, we CAN, in principle, do something about our own carbon-burning activities. So far, however, we have NOT been doing any of the right things (for example, we could quit bulldozing the tropics and let the rainforests live).
And I’ll also have to concede that there is a lot of hysteria on the part of the pro-GW politicians. Politicians are stupid, greedy crooks … how can that be? Whenever did it start happening?
I agree w Elaine that people, generally, like warm weather. AGW is a scare tactic. Follow the money. Gore is pushing toward billionaire status and sold to $auds. Even if AGW exists, China and India will not stop carbon emissions.
” A slight change in solar output leads to HUGE changes here. Huge! And what caused the Ice Ages?
I place all my bets on the sun. ”
=======================================
I doubt very much your belief. During the age of the dinosaurs, there were no ice ages for 200 millions years. I put my bets on the distribution of land masses, the amount of supervolcanism, and the Milankovitch cycles. In any case, it is a complicated scientific question.
The sun was many millions of years younger! It is now DESTABILIZED. Thus my father said ‘the sun is a variable star’ which freaked out everyone in the science community.
And you can’t see the obvious, either, because it is scary.
I don’t understand what the problem is with information about the sun becoming unstable. It was taught to me in grade school. The sun is a huge fusion generator. It merrily burns fuel. When the fuel begins to run out, things go wonky.
We can see it in our own bodies as we age. It really isn’t hard to understand and when did they stop teaching this to school children?
I think standard cosmology has the Sun moving along the “main sequence” for maybe another hundred million years. It isn’t “getting unstable”. Of course, all stars are variable to some degree, it would be inevitable in such a large dynamic system.
But for the last several hundred years, it hasn’t varied by more than a percent or two. We shall see what it does now.
ΩΩΩ
ELAINE: So why the sudden ice ages? And why do these all end very suddenly, too? And a 1% variation translates into HUGE differentials in the weather on earth.
Reports of the Suns death are a little premature.
How much do these meteorologist clowns get paid?
http://news.yahoo.com/meteorologist-vows-never-to-fly-again-after-seeing-latest-climate-report-134014509.html
Today, the local “weatherman” said that it was “very un-Octoberish”. It is 74 degrees, dry, and sunny outside. It happens every fall.
Has everyone become a paid shill in our society?
The sun is certainly not destabilized. The most important structure of the sun as a star is well understood by astrophysicists. It is made mostly of hydrogen and it will burn like that for 5 billions years more until it becomes a red giant. The small (less than 1%) variation in output seems complicated to explain, but to call the sun a variable star because of it is to misuse the name of variable star. Otherwise, one would have to call every star a variable star.
Wrong.
It is NOT as stable as in the past. If it were, there would be no Ice Ages. These cold spells are more and more frequent and slight alterations in solar energy output has huge results when it hits the planets.
Denial doesn’t stop elemental changes. Assuming the sun will always be STEADY STATE are grossly dangerous. If we presume this we end up with crappy weather predictions which is plain as day at this point.
Like the fat, dumb, happy scientists and journalists, enter the fat and happy
Walruses, endangered by AGW.
‘The gathering of walrus on shore is a phenomenon that has accompanied the loss of summer sea ice as the climate has warmed.’
http://news.yahoo.com/10-000-walrus-come-ashore-northwest-alaska-154822374.html
http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/people/guido/PHY2502/articles/solar-activity/Maunder_Minimum.pdfhttp://what-if.xkcd.com/63/
“The reality of the Maunder Minimum and it’s implications of basic solar change
may be but one more defeat in our long and losing battle to keep the sun perfect,
or, if not perfect, constant, and if inconstant, regular. Why we think the sun should
be any of these when other stars are not is more a question for social than physical science.”