The above picture is from the Wikipedia Pacific Decadal Oscillation Event. This is what a West Coast wet weather cycle looks like: cold water off of Japan and warm across the West Coast. Note how this is during an el Nino cycle. But we are in the exact opposite, a very long, persistent la Nina cycle which shows no sign of letting up. The global warming model does not have room for a persistent cold cycle like this one. Instead, they focus on the fact that the water running off of Japan’s east coast is unusually warm. Which is true and quite curious considering that this coincides with the Great Tohoku Earthquake that destroyed so much of eastern Japan in 2011 which happens to be the time when the oscillation began. The long drought in California is being blamed on the ocean being hot when it actually is caused by a COOLING Pacific, not a hot one.
I have watched the el Nino site since its inception online. This is the longest la Nina ever, so far. Climate history shows us that a cool Pacific la Nina can last for up to 50 years. The worst drought to hit the West Coast was back in 1300 AD. The claims for ‘worst drought ever’ today always have the proviso that it is in the last 100 years. But we know that it can be much worse and that this happens periodically to the West Coast ever since the last Ice Age ended. Of course, during Ice Ages, it is wetter and cooler even in the desert and West Coast but the relative coolness is warmer the further north along the coast with no freezing even along the coast in Alaska and the Bering Straits.
A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America is a paper from Arizona State University talking about the Great Southwest Drought which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period.
A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900–1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts.
This long drought,when it became particularly dire at the end of the cycle, caused the collapse of the thriving native agricultural life in Arizona, northern Mexico, New Mexico. Indians in California nearly died off. The farmers in the Southwest built cliff cave cities to escape the rising cannibalism and battles for food and water. When I was a child, one could find pottery and discarded corn grindstones lying all about the desert all over the place. As a child, I found skeletons lying in the desert that were from this period. It was all quite sad.
The interesting thing about this Arizona State University study is, the author admits there was overall warming of the Northern Hemisphere and there was a Medieval Warming Period! HAHAHA. I was thoroughly enraged when leading global warming climate hysterics tried to eliminate this era by pretending it was local to Europe and nowhere else. I wrote about the Great Arizona Drought which coincided with that time and now a climatologist agrees. About time.
The key here is, this terrible drought isn’t being caused by the Pacific being warmer than usual but rather, colder. Namely, due to today’s data, we see that a persistent la Nina causes this! Not an el Nino. That is, cold upwelling causes this, not warm ocean surface water temperatures. Why this happens still has to be figured out but the first step is to step back at look harder at the incoming complex data. I suspect that Ice Ages coincide with el Nino events, not la Nina. That is, the West Coastal waters are warmer than usual but the Atlantic decadal water oscillation is colder than normal.
Furthermore, these two events tend to mirror each other as we see this year with the Northeast getting storms and waves of extreme cold, one of which is now bearing down on us sending temperatures where I live back to below zero.
The drought in California is scary. And can get much worse if this la Nina cycle persists: California drought: Three more months of dry weather likely, National Weather Service announces – Inside Bay Area
For the past 13 months, a huge ridge of high-pressure in the atmosphere has sat off the West Coast, blocking storms that normally would bring rain during winter months.
Such high-pressure zones normally rise and break down as temperatures change and the jet stream shifts every winter, but this one has been different. Some scientists say it may be linked to climate change, which has melted polar ice and warmed the oceans. Others, including many who strongly support the broad scientific consensus that the Earth is warming due to human burning of fossil fuels, say it is too early to know. It may be related to other factors, such as naturally occurring temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean, similar to El Niño and La Niña, or simply random bad luck.
The article then explains that coastal waters are one degree cooler than normal and ‘a large section’ of water is 4 degrees warmer than usual. This is not totally honest. Yes, the mid-Pacific is warmer than usual but the cooler than normal part is also very, very big. The Pacific/Atlantic oscillations work in tandem with each other. The above article does not tell readers that we are in a definite la Nina cycle that is long, not brief and that global warming enthusiasts all predicted more el Nino events and shorter la Nina, not longer la Nina events.
This inability to predict the future is the Achilles tendon of global warming climatologists. They should have been able to foresee this except the data they use tends to not work very well and instead of updating it, they add more ‘global warming event’ data instead. The idea that colder than normal Pacific cycle could cause a warm weather drought in the Southwest puzzles them because it doesn’t fit their ‘warmer ocean’ model.
Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime shifts associated with concurrent changes in SST, SLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in 1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:
- 1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.
- 1924/1925: PDO changed to a “warm” phase.
- 1945/1946: The PDO changed to a “cool” phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.
- 1976/1977: PDO changed to a “warm” phase.
- 1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed, in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.
- 1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift. The SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed as the PDO changed back to a cool “anchovy” phase . However the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resembled a strong shift in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation rather than the PDO structure. This pattern dominated much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.
Some people have jumped to the conclusion that the dearth of sea life and the death of so many higher up in the food chain predators there have died due to Fukushima. This is false. The shift from sardines to anchovy fish is an indication that the warm/cold cycle is the reason for a die-off of much of the marine life along the West Coast. The persistent high funneling cold weather and storms further northwards and then down into the Midwest is also caused by the colder ocean waters.
Telling people that a colder Pacific is causing this is troublesome for global warming believers so they have to talk about the persistent high and not the connection of the la Nina which is on the equator, as the cause of all this mayhem. Over time, thanks to modern technology, we can figure out how these oscillations between the two great open oceans works. Then the real key to all this comes into better view: THE SUN.
Is all this caused by the sun’s shifts in amounts of sun spot activity versus solar wind activity? YOU BET! We just had a nice dose of solar energy this last week and a half thanks to our sun having finally some sun spot activity which aimed at the earth and gave us a good roasting. And I felt it immediately here! It was nice.
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