‘Climatologist’ Mann Screams We Will Roast To Death In 2036!

Climate Prediction Center – Seasonal Color Maps

 

 

Increasingly desperate, the global warmists are howling at us that we are going to freeze—roast to death.  Michael Mann is leading the fire brigade with another hot blast of hot air, we are doomed, he cries, absolutely doomed to roast to death by 2036.  This day is chosen based on his hockey stick graphs.  Even as he admits at last that yes, global warming has ceased.  Without any reasonable explanation accounting for this mysterious lack of heating, he shoves the story of warming forwards.  Not even bothering with the ‘climate change’ hocus pocus.

 

 

Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 | Michael E. Mann

“Temperatures have been flat for 15 years–nobody can properly explain it,” the Wall Street Journal says. “Global warming ‘pause’ may last for 20 more years, and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover,” the Daily Mail says. Such reassuring claims about climate abound in the popular media, but they are misleading at best. Global warming continues unabated, and it remains an urgent problem…

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with answering such questions. In response to the data, the IPCC in its September 2013 report lowered one aspect of its prediction for future warming.

 

Its forecasts, released every five to seven years, drive climate policy worldwide, so even the small change raised debate over how fast the planet is warming and how much time we have to stop it. The IPCC has not yet weighed in on the impacts of the warming or how to mitigate it, which it will do in reports that were due this March and April.

 

Yet I have done some calculations that I think can answer those questions now: If the world keeps burning fossil fuels at the current rate, it will cross a threshold into environmental ruin by 2036. The “faux pause” could buy the planet a few extra years beyond that date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the crossover–but only a few.

 

The rivers and streams where I live are still mostly frozen as are many places in the northern parts of North America.  So this ‘faux pause’ in the promised global warming doesn’t seem very fake to me.  The unreasonable attitude of faux scientists like Mr. Mann are infuriating.  Not content with mocking us about having ‘only weather’, they have turned cruel and heartless as this cold winter clings to us with tenacity that cannot be explained away by warmist’s theories.

 

NOAA has issued new forecast maps.  Note how the first one for April shows VERY cold weather compared to normal, it has been more like January this March so finally, they admit it will continue cold and remain so all the way, now, to July.  Then they revert to the Global Warming Is Killing Us forecasts for the rest of the year, particularly in the  parts of the nation that froze to death this long winter past.

 

Particularly where I live is to be most warm indeed!  With virtually no winter next winter!  Wow!  I guess I don’t have to chop 5 to 7 cords of firewood next summer!  Fun!  Of course, these maps are a joke and have been for quite a while.

 

The magicians pulling the hot rabbits out of a refrigerator have to reveal their magic spells to the rest of us and here it is:  Mikey Demonstrates Again That He Doesn’t Know How To Do Science | Real Science

 

We employed a simple zero-dimensional Energy Balance Model(“EBM”—see references 1 through 5 below) of the form

C dT/dt = S(1-a)/4 + F_GHG –A–B T + w(t)

to model the forced response of the climate to estimate natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Basically, the magic formula assumes the sun will always be the same, never changing, and that our planet’s crooked transit through the solar system is always the same and that the tilt and rotation is never changing. All of this is false.  The north star has to be changed every 23,000 years as the planet wobbles on its axis and the tilt of this axis which is not centered at all but knocked silly by a collision around half a billion years ago means our climate is never ‘regular’ but rather, is as shifting as the desert sands.

This is why the ridiculous new name for global warming, ‘climate change’ is insane and stupid.  And a fraud.  The global warmists want desperately to paint us with this brush as people who deny the climate changes.  Most sane dissent to the global warming theory is from people like myself who are hyper aware of the changing nature of our climate and thus, worried about the inevitable ice age that looms dark in our future.

‘Liberals’ have invested a lot of energy in flacking the global warming story and are now deep in snow drifts trying to explain away the deteriorating cold conditions.  They are on full attack mode and are being unreasonable about nearly everything.  One of the heroes of liberals in the last two elections was Nate Silver.

 

He is supposedly this genius with crunching numbers and statistics.  But he has published a story with stats that wrecks the global warming story so they now all hate him:  First Climate Article On Nate Silver’s Data Website Uses ‘Deeply Misleading’ Data, Top Climatologists Say | ThinkProgress

 

The crux of Pielke’s article is this: Extreme weather events are costing us more and more money, but that is not because climate change is making extreme weather more frequent or intense. The reason we are losing more money, rather, is because we have more money to lose. Pielke came to this conclusion by measuring rising disaster damage costs alongside the rising global Gross Domestic Product. He also cited a U.N. climate report, along with his own research, to assert that extreme weather events have not been increasing in frequency or intensity.

“Pielke’s piece is deeply misleading, confirming some of my worst fears that Nate Silver’s new venture may become yet another outlet for misinformation when it comes to the issue of human-caused climate change,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. “Pielke uses a very misleading normalization procedure that likely serves to remove the very climate change-related damage signal that he claims to not be able to find.”

There he is, Michael Mann, again.  Leading the charge.  With zero information as rebuttal, just assumptions.  The peculiarity of the increasing cold is, when it began a decade ago, we had raging hurricanes and tornadoes, etc.  But these are now vanishing.  We now have raging blizzards!  Record snow.  And cold weather droughts caused by a colder Pacific Ocean offshore California.

 

We are in a La Nina weather event and have been for a while.  And it isn’t ending all that soon, either.

 

The global warmists have republished this old story from the earlier cold era I remember all too well having to dig out from multiple blizzards back then:  April, 1975:  Newsweek on the cooling world with the warmists claiming that this story is silly and delusional because according to Mann, there was no cooling back then!

 

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

 

To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

 

And there were terrible famines!  I remember these, too.  Note the rise in temperatures on the equator back then.  I surmise from this information that both now and then, when the cooling happened, the equator was warmer.  And I bet heavily that this was true during the Ice Ages, too.  This is frightful to consider.  Perhaps the rise in temperatures the warmists boast about is merely an artifact of cooling?

 

The Global Cooling Awareness Project (GCAP) is a site I found today.  Has its uses for data.

 

Here is an interesting study that was published this week that has a bizarre conclusion due to the scientists feeling naked fear that if they don’t toe the global warming belief system, they will  not be published.  Sun’s energy influences 1,000 years of natural climate variability in North Atlantic — ScienceDaily

 

 Scientists studied seafloor sediments to determine how the temperature of the North Atlantic and its localised atmospheric circulation had altered. Warm surface waters flowing across the North Atlantic, an extension of the Gulf Stream, and warm westerly winds are responsible for the relatively mild climate of Europe, especially in winter. Slight changes in the transport of heat associated with these systems can lead to regional climate variability, and the study findings matched historic accounts of climate change, including the notoriously severe winters of the 16th and 18th centuries which pre-date global industrialisation.

 

The study found that changes in the Sun’s activity can have a considerable impact on the ocean-atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic, with potential effects on regional climate.

 

Predictions suggest a prolonged period of low sun activity over the next few decades, but any associated natural temperature changes will be much smaller than those created by human carbon dioxide emissions, say researchers…

 

“By using the climate model it was also possible to explore how the changes in solar output affected the surface circulation of the Atlantic Ocean,” said Prof Ian Hall, a co-author of the study. “The circulation of the surface of the Atlantic Ocean is typically tightly linked to changes in the wind patterns. Analysis of the atmosphere component in the climate model revealed that during periods of solar minima there was a high-pressure system located west of the British Isles. This feature is often referred to as atmospheric blocking, and it is called this because it blocks the warm westerly winds diverting them and allowing cold Arctic air to flow south bringing harsh winters to Europe, such as those recently experienced in 2010 and 2013.”…

 

The study concludes that although the temperature changes expected from future solar activity are much smaller than the warming from human carbon dioxide emissions, regional climate variability associated with the effects of solar output on the ocean and atmosphere should be taken into account when making future climate projections.

 

See?  They pin point the entire point my father made about the sun changing output and this impacts the weather on earth!  But they MINIMIZE THIS with zero proof or data to back this up!  As I point out constantly, the current 100 years pattern of cooling eras versus warm cycle periods (which come in 30 year cycles, that is two solar cycles) has the cold surges following faithfully the exact same outline of the maximum extent of glaciation during the Ice Ages.

 

So, this means that with just a small change in solar output, we can have a series of ‘no summers’ in this vital zone and this turns quickly into a full scale Ice Age.

 

La Nina continues to rule the Pacific with uncertain ending and odd conditions pending

 

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively unchanged from last month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) will persist through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

The above graph shows a plunge in the 30 day Pacific temperature differential.  We may be sliding back into a full scale la Nina, not an el Nino.  It all depends on the sun, I would surmise.

 

San Juan – Final Technical Report

 

Note the classic la Nina/el Nino pictures.  The present one has a warming of the la Nina except look at the area around the  Guadalupe Island  off of South America: cold upwelling again that wasn’t there last month. Also, the Atlantic isn’t cooling like it does when there is an el Nino, it is warmer than ever with the Pacific below where the la Nino operates, quite cool.  And the ocean off the Antarctic is quite cold!

 

Aurora Australis – ship webcam — Australian Antarctic Division: here is the webcam of the research ship that got stuck in the ice when global warmists wanted to scare us and the penguins. Click on the webpage and you can see it is stuck hard in the ice.  Maybe forever.

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