Time To Look At Japan Trade Statistics: Japan Is In Same Trap We Are In

Japan trade deficit is both manufacturing and energy imports

Japan’s trade statistics are terrible, Japan is now wallowing in red in both government spending and trade just like the US.  The above graph’s red parts are energy trade deficits while the blue represents Japan’s imports from industrial nations, mostly China and the EU.  Japan cannot run on red ink forever and Fukushima is a huge budget hole that is destroying a large sector of Japan and menaces the entire population with future cancer rates going very high.  Japan’s economic problems perfectly mirror the US only with the added population decline problem making problems in the future.

 

BREAKING NEWS:  China seizes Mitsui O.S.K. ship over unpaid wartime contract compensation while one day after yet another LDP official visited the war criminal shrine, Abe sends offering to Yasukuni shrine, but has no plans to visit: the warmongering will increase.  While Japan runs a HUGE trade deficit with China.

 

Much of the news I have read recently blames Japan’s trade deficit on Fukushima and the need to import coal and oil.  But the actual Bank of Japan statistics tell a much more complex story.  Yes, the majority of the trade deficit is from energy imports but the fact that nearly all EU nations have a trade surplus with Japan where the population loves imported EU high status goods like expensive purses and shoes as well as cars, etc.  This is deep penetration of Japanese markets that hurt Japan directly.

 

http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/shinbun/trade-st_e/2014/2014034e.pdf

And looking at the fewer and fewer countries that have trade deficits with Japan and the US is the #1 victim, we see trade is DECLINING.  Only a few places see increase in trade.  This is particularly troubling for the Japanese government.  Even the US trade is falling, though only by 9% right now.

Japan trade surplus country trade is mostly declining

2014 japan trade deficit continues

Japan Balance of Trade | Actual Value | Historical Data | Forecast

The US is in the  usual trade negotiations with Japan with them trying desperately to hang onto the neck of the US and drown us.  We are their only hope!  So not one inch will be handed over to US trade negotiators who have a long record of stupid, worthless negotiations that only make our trade deficit worse and worse.

 

The one thing stopping our deficit from growing to infinity is our bigger and bigger recessions.  Which the Fed Reserve and DC governments all claim they want to avoid and erase!  Instead, all our policies lead towards endless trade deficits, hidden inflation, bubbles and banking collapses.  And government overspending and a refusal to pay taxes or grazing fees or whatever.

 

Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses ..

 

The Bank of Japan’s massive purchases of government debt hit a milestone this week, sucking liquidity out of the market to such an extent that the benchmark 10-year bond went untraded for more than a day, the first time in 13 years.

 

Data from the BoJ late on Monday showed its holding of Japanese government bonds topped ¥200tn ($1.96tn), or about 20% of outstanding issuance – up by more than half from ¥125tn about a year ago.

 

The fall in market liquidity looks set to intensify as the BoJ has vowed to continue its aggressive buying for at least another year, with market players expecting it to expand its easing some time later this year.

 

We see from the statistics above that Japan is importing a lot of energy products from Australia and the Middle East as well as…Russia!  The desperate attempts at controlling global energy markets is an underlying force at work in the way the world is spiraling into another World War.  Japan was willing to do a sneak attack on the US and Netherlands and Britain (lest we forget, Pearl Harbor was one of MANY targets that morning with the attack on Burma and Singapore, etc. happening too!) over the desire to control oil markets so the Japanese empire could press forwards in China.

 

Now the US and Japan are the energy dependent nations and to my surprise, Germany has decided to go full bore ‘let’s attack Russia again!’ which is pure insanity but then, they do run a huge trade deficit with Russia!  NATO salivates at invading Russia mainly via overthrowing the government and having a Yeltsin-style weak leader let the looting run riot.

 

Japan’s bond problems are our bond problems as both countries wallow in red ink and print cheap money endlessly:  Wall Street Bond Dealers Whipsawed on Bearish Treasuries Bet – Bloomberg

 

While the Fed’s decision to inundate the U.S. economy with more than $3 trillion of cheap money since 2008 by buying Treasuries and mortgaged-backed bonds bolstered profits as all fixed-income assets rallied, yields are now so low that banks are struggling to make money trading government bonds.

 

Yields on 10-year notes have remained below 3 percent since January, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In two decades before the credit crisis, average yields topped 6 percent.

 

Average daily trading has also dropped to $551.3 billion in March from an average $570.2 billion in 2007, even as the outstanding amount of Treasuries has more than doubled since the financial crisis, according data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

 

This leads to predictions of doom:  «I see speculative bubbles like in 2007» | Analyse der Finanzmärkte, Konjunktur und Geldpolitik | Märkte Makro | Finanz und Wirtschaft

 

Question:  So, the first quantitative easing in November 2008 was warranted?
Answer:  Absolutely.

 

Question:  But they should have stopped these kinds of policies long ago?
Answer:  Yes. But here’s the problem. When you talk about crisis resolution, it’s about attacking the fundamental problems that got you into the trouble in the first place. And the fundamental problem we are still facing is excessive debt. Not excessive public debt, mind you, but excessive debt in the private and public sectors. To resolve that, you need restructurings and write-offs. That’s government policy, not central bank policy. Central banks can’t rescue insolvent institutions. All around the western world, and I include Japan, governments have resolutely failed to see that they bear the responsibility to deal with the underlying problems. With the ultraloose monetary policy, governments have no incentive to act. But if we don’t deal with this now, we will be in worse shape than before.
Question:  Which of the major central banks runs the highest risk of something going seriously wrong?But wouldn’t large-scale debt write-offs hurt the banking sector again?

 

Answer:  Absolutely. But you see, we have a lot of zombie companies and banks out there. That’s a particular worry in Europe, where the banking sector is just a continuous story of denial, denial and denial. With interest rates so low, banks just keep evergreening everything, pretending all the money is still there….

 

At the moment what I am most worried about is Japan. I know there is an expression that the Japanese bond market is called the widowmaker. People have bet against it and lost money. The reason I worry now is that they are much further down the line even than the Americans. What is Abenomics really? As far as I see it, they print the money and tell people that there will be high inflation. But I don’t think it will work. The Japanese consumer will say prices are going up, but my wages won’t.

 

 

ZERO private bank bids for Japanese government debt this last week!  Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BOJ holding hits 200 trln yen.  A lot of the Japanese government money is flowing into remilitarizing Japan, seizing distant islands offshore nuclear armed China, playing the ‘Asian pivot’ game with an equally bankrupt ZIRP banking US government and paying for over a quarter of the population which is elderly and which will be 50% of the population in just another 20 years.

 

 

So what are they doing?  Lawmakers demand gov’t ‘redesign’ whaling program!  Diet members dine on whale meat in defiance of ICJ ruling even though most of them probably threw up afterwards.  And the only ones who want to eat whale meat are the elderly.  Money for rebuilding from Fukushima and the tsunami went into whale hunting.  Japan intends to continue Antarctic whale hunt: Sea Shepherd:  This, in turn, keeps the Sea Shepherd crew employed, too.  So I assume they are going to have fun with this news.

 

Statistical Graphics :: Peter Frase

Screen shot 2014-04-21 at 10.47.38 AM

As we see from this graph, output has shot upwards while employment in factories drop.  Robots don’t buy goods.  Manufacturers do sell robot materials with each other but this doesn’t feed the economic loop like employment does.  The gap here is fixed by exporting goods and this is a game both the US and Japan are increasingly losing.  And Japan can’t cannibalize the US forever if our employment continues to collapse like we see here.

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15 Comments

Filed under Free Trade

15 responses to “Time To Look At Japan Trade Statistics: Japan Is In Same Trap We Are In

  1. e sutton

    Just a thought: Could it be that nations like Japan and the U.S. print $$ to make up for what they have lost in tax revenue (due to high unemployment)? I understand the intent to print money to keep ZIRP going and feed the bottomless pit that is our bankster elites, in other words, to steal from responsible savers to give to irresponsible speculators. Sooner rather than later the fiat becomes worthless and it’s end game for all but the one percent who will, by the time the SHTF will have transferred all fiat they have into gold, minerals, and tangible wealth. And of course, by the time the unwashed masses realize what has been happening, it will be far, far too late. I do not pity the elite who do not escape the U.S. when this all comes to fruition, for there will be massive rioting and pitchforks waving in the air. Not to mention guns a’blazing.

    I imagine that Joe and Jane Doe, who either toil for minimum wage or collect their monthly allotment of EBT will not be able to afford even beans and rice, let alone crack. You already see the beginnings of this in Chicagoland, as there was mass murder over the weekend. This from RT:

    “At least 9 dead, 32 injured in Chicago Easter weekend shootings
    Nine people have been killed and a further 32 injured in weekend shootings in Chicago which started on Friday afternoon and lasted until Monday morning. Five of the injured are children.”

    And this from CNSnews.com, a comment from a reader on the same story:

    “wonder what time Al Sharpton is arriving? Oh, I forgot, he only shows up when whitie is involved. It’s OK for blacks to kill each other, they’re just cleaning up the mess that got passed Planned Parenthood. Besides, it’s just their “culture”.

    As we descend further into this abyss, the social fabric continues to fray, and the silence from our exalted leaders (Obama, et. al) is absolutely deafening. But let one little hood rat get nailed by a “white” Hispanic, and it’s 24/7 news coverage. A population turned against itself as the one percent smirks, stifling their laughter, while sipping Dom Perignon at their oceanfront Hamptons summer homes.

    Finally, this from Kunstler:

    “… Instead, we “socialize” the costs of supporting Too Big To Fail banks — so their employees can drive Beemers to their Hamptons summer house parties — and a military machine that goes around the world wrecking one country after another to support a parasitical class of contractors, lobbyists, and bought-off politicians in their northern Virginia McMansions.”

    And the beat goes on……………

    Rant over!

  2. Elaine, there is another story in regards to Japan.

    Since the first of the year, investors have been short the Japanese Yen, FXY, and short the Japanese Financial Institutions, IX, SMFG, MFG, MTU, causing the Nikkei, NKY, to fall lower as is seen in their combined ongoing Yahoo Finance chart http://tinyurl.com/lhpu59n

    At the same time investors have been long a number of other currencies such as the India Rupe, ICN, with the result of a carry trade rally India Small Caps, SCIN, and other small cap nations, such as New Zealand, ENZL, Singapore, EWS, Developing Africa, GAF, Philippines, EPHE, Indonesia, IDX, Gulf Dividends, GULF, Egypt, EGPT, and Denmark, EDEN, as is seen in their ongoing combined Yahoo Finance Chart http://tinyurl.com/mtjr9vp

  3. Joseppi

    Perhaps, the psychotic leaders of Japan are feeling the trembling beneath their feet……

    “The people of Tokyo have long lived in fear of another great earthquake, and those fears are increasingly justified. Slow-motion earthquakes have become more common beneath the city in the last few years, causing tectonic stresses to build up.”

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25424-slowmotion-tremors-make-tokyo-megaquake-more-likely.html#.U1VXkVdyWpk

  4. JimmyJ

    China says this is episode is due to simple asset seizure for unpaid debt.

    “China’s seizure of a Japanese ship was solely for delayed rent and losses owed to a Chinese firm and was unrelated to wartime compensation, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said on Monday.” – China Daily

    http://goo.gl/Ilh5ji

    Japan bellicosity for domestic consumption, which seems to be the theme these days.

  5. CK

    China is rejecting US GMO corn shipments. This is “interesting.” It is good that the USA has its newfound oil and natural gas exporting wealth to make up for the coming loss of its other raw material exports.

  6. JimmyJ

    One of the commenters at “The Saker” blog found this tender by the US Navy at FBO.gov for school roof repairs in Sebastopol, Crimea, Ukraine, dated last fall for this spring.

    “Synopsis:
    Added: Sep 05, 2013 2:58 am
    The purpose of this request for proposal is for the design and construction for the renovation of Sevastopol School #5 in Sevastopol, Ukraine in accordance with the attachments.
    Added: Apr 15, 2014 5:18 am
    Due to the current climate in Ukraine, the subject solicitation is hereby cancelled.”

    http://goo.gl/UAY22Y

    Loss of that school roof repair contract will set the oligarchs well back in their world domination plans.

  7. Sker

    emsnews: “. . . Japan is importing a lot of energy products . . . The desperate attempts at controlling global energy markets is an underlying force at work in the way the world is spiralling into another World War.”

    Japan was in dire economic straits when it decided to launch a war of aggression against China and the south east Asian nations, with the dream of looting this conquered countries and repatriating the loot back to Japan. This dream evaporated when it lost the 2nd W.War.

    Now, the numbers as published in your commentary show that Japan is again facing economic disaster. News reports have Japan making war-like pronouncements and greatly expanding their military spending. So, it begs the question: Is Japan thinking of repeating history and getting ready to launch another war of aggression to invade and loot its neighbours?

  8. Anonymous

    Let’s face it: the real mystery here is why Canada is listed beneath the Oceania heading.

  9. emsnews

    I removed the data and shoved it around trying to link up all the trade surplus or trade deficit countries so the headings don’t match.

  10. Mike

    Elaine, I believe the “business model” fell apart in the 1988 for Japan…are you acquainted with a guy called Quigly (sp?)

  11. Mike

    Please forgive my temporary carelessness…Carroll Quigley…sat in at meetings post ww2 where apparently the fords were given domination over that part of the world..

  12. emsnews

    Har, due to the Cold War, by 1948, Japan was running everything exactly as if WWII defeat never happened. This is also why so many war criminals were not put on trial. Most of the LDP leaders are sons of war criminals.

  13. emsnews

    Thanks for the video, Luke.

  14. Luke

    He reminds me of Jim Kunstler [Peak Oil, Limits to growth, paper money etc].

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