Over 100 years ago astronomers discovered a very elegant and simple way to predict climate changes: sun spot activity. This worked perfectly until recent years when the climatologists all clamoring for more money, came up with all sorts of things to look at to ‘predict the weather’ and then have done a totally wretched job at this prognostication business. Now, NOAA and NASA are utterly incapable of predicting future climate conditions. There is an army of ‘researchers’ who have made fun of the sun spot business and who are in denial that this simple system works perfectly.
Well, the sun is winning the arguments again! This latest solar maximum is very weak and solar scientists warn that the next cycle will be weaker than this cycle and this means a much colder climate especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Right now, there are warm areas like parts of Europe or Siberia or Alaska and the West Coast that aren’t seeing the immediate cold shocks and sun spot activity is still higher than null. But it will drop to null in the next 5 years and even the warm spots will cool down, even Los Angeles.
So of course, the frantic efforts at minimizing solar sun spot activity as the main determination as to whether it will be a colder or warmer climate, roars onwards with our experts yelling that this is all an illusion, we are really roasting to death at some time in the near future. Officials Warn that Global Warming Slowdown is Actually Quite Misleading – Pioneer News
Study author Anthony Leiserowitz goes on to describe “It’s fair to say that the vast majority of the public is completely unaware of the word ‘hiatus,’ or the word ‘pause,’ or any of the arguments that have been going on for a few years now between the scientific community and the deniers. The vast majority of, well, at least Americans, rarely hear about climate change in the media.”
These ‘scientists’ can’t seem to stop lying. The stupid ‘climate CHANGE’ story is all over the place. It is deafeningly bellowed in our ears. We agree: the climate is changing. It is getting much colder. The reason no one hears the words ‘hiatus’ or ‘pause’ is because our media refuses to say these words and these fake scientists all run away screaming when we use these words and aim them towards these charlatans.
Indeed, many people were a bit surprised to find that global warming was not, in fact, a myth; and more importantly, that the state of global warming was nearing critical mass and we are now in a place where we must make drastic changes or face equally dire consequences.
The surprise people show when they are told that there is global warming is due to the fact they think the person telling them this news is INSANE. So they show shock and even concern and might even call the cops. They are very shocked to learn that they must make drastic changes in how they live (no more heating the house, using cars, living in houses bigger than hovels, etc.) is required due to this imaginary global warming which has been renamed ‘climate change’ to cover the fact that it is getting much colder.
“There have been a number of studies that have shown that some people will change their views of climate change based on extreme weather. It’s not enough to simply experience a heat wave — it then needs to be contextualized. It needs to be interpreted by thought leaders and trusted people in a community and by the media and scientists saying, ‘This is an indication of global warming.’”
The Yale author’s solution is to have more propaganda from ‘thought leaders’. I bet this urchin read ‘1984’ while in high school! I never heard of the term ‘thought leaders’ except in that story.
NOAA’s ability to predict future climate is in ruins. Their failure rate for the eastern half of the US is epic. Virtually no predictions they make, happen. Often it is the opposite of what they predict. Who has the best record for predictions? Why the good old guys at the Farmer’s Almanac! They are quite open about their magical, amazing crystal ball: Sunspots, solar flares, solar cycles, and how the Sun affects weather
Here at the Almanac, we believe that solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity, can influence weather here on Earth. In this article, we explain the basics of solar activity, solar cycles, and what’s up with the Sun now.
Solar Cycle 24
As of January 15, 2015, we are over six years into Cycle 24.
The solar minimum occured in 2008 and 2009; during those two years, there were almost NO sunspots, a very unusual situation that had not happened for almost a century. Due to the weak solar activity, galactic cosmic rays were at record levels.
Solar Maximum: The Sun’s record-breaking sleep ended in 2010. In 2011, sunspot counts jumped up. In February of 2012, the sunpot numbers reached a peak of 66.9.
In late 2013, NASA reported, “The sun’s global magnetic field is about to reverse polarity.” The sunspot number climbed into the 70s. This is still very low. By February of 2014, sunspots averaged 102.8 spots a day, which is the first time the cycle broke 100.
In April, 2014, the sunspot number peaked a second time, reaching 81.9. This is likely the solar maximum. Many cycles are double peaked, however, this is the first time the second peak was larger than the first peak (in February, 2012).
Cycle 24 has been a weak solar cycle—the smallest since Cycle 14 (which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906). What will happen next? Stay tuned!
What does all this mean?
Quiet-to-average cycles mean a cooling pattern over the next few decades.
All the massive, amazing research of everything from ice cores to butterflies, glaciers and oceans, atmosphere and volcanoes and NONE of this does ANYTHING towards predicting future weather accurately. But observing our nearest star works like magic. We have known this for many, many years now. And…this was all tossed aside by modern ‘climatologists’ who seem to be the worst performing group of scientists in the history of modern society.
Study: The sun has more impact on the climate in cool periods | Watts Up With That? is a typical example of how some experts (sic) are finally being forced to try to understand how sun spot activity translates into climate rises and falls on our little planet earth. This is actually very sad, these admissions that the sun actually is the #1 climate change force in nature. Pretending all sorts of other things cause this is infuriating. There is another planetary thing that amplifies solar changes when the earth is in a round orbit or epileptical orbit also makes solar variations stronger.
We do know Ice Ages began recently in geological history and are periodical in nature. This is due to several forces at work, the connection of North to South America via Panama is one element, the fact that all the continents except Antarctica are moving relentlessly to the North Pole is another factor at work but the #1 cause of the Ice Ages beginning slowly and ending abruptly with warm Interglacials is due to the fact that our local star, the sun, is no longer operating like it did for the last several billion years.
It is now variable. My father’s paper on this topic was censored and fellow scientists repudiated him when he tried to get it published. He burned his paper and went off to die quietly and hardly any of the army of scientists and politicians who knew him personally said a peep about his death or attended his funeral, etc. He became a pariah instantly when he tried to explain how the sun works and how global warming wasn’t going to happen. This all happened around 2ooo.
Here is some of the article from What’s Up With That that discusses this latest study that notices how sea creatures respond to warmer weather from the sun:
However, by examining studies of marine algae – diatoms – found in sediments deposited on the North Atlantic sea bed, it is possible to use the species distribution of these organisms to reconstruct fluctuations in sea surface temperatures much further back in time.
The detailed study makes it possible to draw comparisons with records of fluctuations of solar energy bursts in the same period, and the results show a clear correlation between climate change in the North Atlantic and variations in solar activity during the last 4,000 years, both on a large time scale over periods of hundreds of years and right down to fluctuations over periods of 10-20 years.
The new knowledge is a small but important piece of the overall picture as regards our understanding of how the entire climate system works, according to Professor Seidenkrantz.
“Our climate is enormously complex. By gathering knowledge piece by piece about the way the individual elements work together and influence each other to either strengthen an effect or mitigate or compensate for an impact, we can gradually get an overall picture of the mechanisms. This is also important for understanding how human-induced climate change can affect and be affected in this interaction,” she says.
The authors of this study have to have…more money, more information! HAHAHA. And they have to see how we affect all this with CO2, of course, which requires billions of dollars of research. We can never know all the factors causing warm or cold weather. But we can predict this easily and NONE of the papers being produced by the millions mentions this important salient point of information. If they were honest, they would admit there is an easy way to understand the future.
But then all the money would vanish so they have to make this all COMPLEX rather than simple. Here are some interesting comments to the article:
vukcevic March 1, 2015 at 11:58 am
In addition to the TSI, Dr. L. Svalgaard solar scientist Stanford University states:
“As the magnetospheric ring current and the auroral electrojets and their return currents that are responsible for geomagnetic activity have generally North-South directed magnetic effects (strongest at night), the daytime variation of the Y or East component is a suitable proxy for the strength of the SR ionospheric current system..”
Y component measurements (using Gauss magnetometer) since 1840s are currently used to recalibrate the existing sunspot records (Svalgaard et al)
Solar activity effect on the N. Atlantic SST (the AMO) is unique.
Data shows direct correlation of the AMO to the geomagnetic Y (East) componentWhy 60N ?
N. Hemisphere’s climate is under control of the polar and sub-tropical jet-streams, whereby the long term zonal-merdional positioning of jet streams depends on the extent and strength of three primary cells (Pollar, Ferrel and Hadley).
As I point out, we don’t need to know the climate in Australia or California or Africa to understand what is going to happen next. All we have to do is watch the climate at Hudson Bay, not the Arctic and not Alaska. Hudson Bay is Ground Zero for all Ice Ages. The first to go glacial and the last to melt. All the mountain glaciers are left over Ice Age things, there are no glaciers at Hudson Bay during Interglacials.
All we need to see if we want to know if an Ice Age is beginning, is no snow melt in summer at Hudson Bay. We don’t look at Greenland, we look at Hudson Bay. This should be a total rule, a natural law of consequences that all humans should learn and watch. Instead, we are being distracted with goofy studies of all over the planet EXCEPT at Hudson Bay.
For example, early last December there was this dire news: Hudson Bay Nearly Covered By Ice In Less Than One Week …which would have alerted everyone to the fact, this was going to be a very bad winter south of Hudson Bay in the Great Lakes/New England states! Just three years ago, there was this news about Hudson Bay: Global warming threatens Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada’s most southern Arctic refuge | canada.com.
But since then, the bad news about sun spots alerted us to the fact that we are now going into a global cooling cycle and this was confirmed by the swift icing over of Hudson Bay. I actually think the 2012 study of Hudson Bay is biased because it was already trending towards cooling back then. But they dared not mention that which is why the last two winters which were extremely brutal there and the slow warming that never got very warm last summer was ‘a surprise’ when it shouldn’t have been any surprise at all.
I was not surprised about the last two winters, I warned everyone what was going to happen! Another comment from the WUWT article:
jonesingforozone March 1, 2015 at 8:02 pm
Dr. Svalgaard himself questioned whether current solar activity compares to that of the Maunder Minimum in his paper, Calibration of Sunspot Numbers, concluding, “Should such deviations from `normal’ observed sunspot activity be substantiated in the near future, the question naturally arises whether [and when] they might have occurred in the past as well, e.g. during the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715.”
Concerning the significance of the EUV spectrum, the paper The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate states:
“Although the ultraviolet region of the spectrum provides only a small fraction of the TSI, ultraviolet irradiance can change by several percent over the solar cycle, and thus represents an important source of modulation of the energy deposition and composition in the middle and upper atmosphere. Ultraviolet irradiance both changes the radiative balance of the atmosphere and affects the shape of the spectrum of radiation reaching the lower atmosphere. Such variations are thought to drive the top-down coupling mechanism.”
Further, Solomon et al(2011) concluded that an Anomalously low solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance and thermospheric density during solar minimum had occurred for which the F10.7 and Total Electron Count proxies did not detect.
When pressed with the evidence of anomalously low EUV data, Dr. Svalgaard either questions their accuracy, their significance, or both.
On the issue of the solar wind, Dr. Svalgaard’s proxies may correctly account for year over year changes, however, the proxies cannot explain the solar wind’s multi-decade decline. For example, compare Leif graph of the solar wind flux,
with the solar wind pressure provided by David Archibald:
The solar wind deflects cosmic rays.
Salvatore Del Prete March 1, 2015 at 12:54 pm
More data which shows since the Holocene Optimum from around 8000BC , through the present day Modern Warm Period( which ended in 1998) the temperature trend throughout this time in the Holocene, has been in a slow gradual down trend(despite an overall increase in CO2, my first chart ), punctuated with periods of warmth. Each successive warm period being a little less warm then the one proceeding it.
My reasoning for the data showing this gradual cooling trend during the Holocene, is Milankovitch Cycles were highly favorable for warming 10000 years ago or 8000 BC, and have since been in a cooling cycle. Superimposed on this gradual cooling cycle has been solar variability which has worked sometimes in concert and sometimes in opposition to the overall gradual cooling trend , Milankovitch Cycles have been promoting.
Then again this is only data which AGW enthusiast ignore if it does not fit into their scheme of things.
The ups and downs of temperature are affecting climate much more powerfully as the continents move northwards. We notice that all of Africa and most of South America are barely affected by warmer/colder sun spot cycles. But Eurasia and North America go through violent climate changes during the same cycles.
The other continents merely have wetter/drier climate effects. More droughts/more rain cycles depending on how much ice/warm weather events in the Northern Hemisphere continents. Antarctica has only more ice/slightly less ice events which means even huge temperature swings there barely changes conditions on the ground.
That is, if it is suddenly -40º F instead of -57ºF this is ‘warming’ but is still ridiculously below freezing, it matters virtually not at all. Greenland actually has a much, much bigger flux affect than Antarctica whereby it can get warm enough for farmers to live there and raise cows and sheep versus totally uninhabitable and cold. Which mirrors the effects in North America and Eurasia.
The flood of data flowing due to the zillions of global warming funding of university studies has created the situation of ‘not seeing the forest due to too many trees.’ This leads to bad predictions/ridiculously wrong predictions which are warning signs, all this new information is wrecking climatology, not making it smarter.
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