NASA Claims No One Can Predict Hurricane Season…NOAA Fails At This Prediction Business Too

The President of the US has declared war on warming.  Anything hinting at warmer weather is attacked ferociously with everyone yelling about California…since few places are warmer, this greatly limits the howls of rage.  The eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal with an el Nino event happening which coincides with the solar cycle peak as per usual and yet look at the Atlantic Ocean: cold.  Quite cold.  Antarctica’s ice has been growing for the last half a decade and increasing greatly so the President and his gang are all over the news howling about one tiny section that is melting in winter when temperatures are below zero there.  Naturally, this minor melting from warm water at just one spot is blamed on ‘human caused global warming’ which is insane.

Screen shot 2015-05-22 at 7.58.25 AM

The video at the top of this story is a news release from NASA explaining how no humans can predict the weather, how predicting the hurricane season is impossible for NASA and its delusional employees and the world is heating up even though the map we see above shows that ice still hasn’t melted in most of Canada and Siberia and it is nearly June!  Here is the transcript of the NASA video:  Is NASA praying for a major U.S. Hurricane? | Watts Up With That?


“Hurricanes respond in complicated ways to their environment,” Hall said. Regarding the larger climate change-hurricane question, he said, “It’s one of the areas of climate change research where reasonable people can still disagree.”


A trickier problem than simply deriving the odds of such a “landfall drought” is trying to predict when the drought might end. Even though a long period of time has passed, the probability that any given year will end the drought is still the same every year, Hall said.


Think of it this way: If you flip a coin and it comes up heads nine times in a row, there is still a 50-50 chance that the 10th flip will come up tails. Hall and Hereid’s statistical analysis found that in any given year there is a 39 percent probability of one or more major hurricane landfalls on the U.S and that that probability does not depend on the drought length. So what are the chances of this historic period coming to an end in 2015, based solely on the odds of the historical record? Thirty-nine percent, Hall said.


“Each year is roughly independent of the year before,” Hall said. “There are known signals, and natural cycles, and possibly human-induced influences. But for the most part, they are independent, especially for the rare intense landfalls.”


The record for no hurricane landfalls above category 3 in strength has been broken.  In the last 117 years, this has never happened before.  Global warmists predicted more and more hurricanes, not none at all.  Stronger and stronger hurricanes, too, for that matter.  The very few storms from last summer were not only rather weak but had short lives as a storm.  The only one to reach landfall was very weak by the time it arrived.


What is particularly infuriating is, in this video, NASA claims that hurricane cycles are ‘natural cycles’ but ‘independent’.  This is appended by NASA also claiming that humans are causing the hurricanes which now hardly evah happen.  Since CO2 has risen in the last 10 years, why have hurricanes vanished?  If higher CO2 causes storms to not happen, this should be headline news!  Instead, they claim all this is a mystery and they are debating each other about this along with the army of well-paid global warmists ‘scientists’.  They cannot explain away this mystery since their entire ideology is based on CO2 creating more, not fewer hurricanes.


So instead, after claiming stupidity in hurricane history and causes, they moved on to this story which is all over the news today:  Antarctic glaciers melting faster than thought – RTÉ News


The glaciers along a stretch of coast about 750 km long in the southern Antarctic peninsula, which snakes up towards South America, began to thin suddenly from around 2009, the team which produced the study said.


“This area is starting to lose ice very rapidly … an area where we didn’t expect it to happen,” lead author Bert Wouters, of the University of Bristol in England, told Reuters. The study was published in the journal Science…It says that it is at least 95 per cent probable that man-made greenhouse gas emissions, rather than natural swings in the climate, are the main cause of warming temperatures.


WTF???  Here are some interesting news stories:  NASA – Opposite Behaviors? Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks while ice in Antarctica is growing rapidly…Antarctica: Research Stations eye possible relocation due to growing sea ice.  In 2012, there is this article:  Antarctic Sea Ice Sets Another Record and this has continued and even accelerated in the following three years.  How can any of these stories be happening if the ice melts when the air temperature is -100 F right now???  The Arctic ice is growing, too.  In Greenland it is definitely growing.


About hurricane predictions: el Ninos inhibit hurricane formation and a cold Atlantic cycle definitely kills it, big time so the easy prediction to make this summer is: no major category 3+ hurricanes.  And NASA should get out of the weather prediction business. They suck at this.


Here is Greenland this morning:  Hendriks webcam i Tasiilaq

Screen shot 2015-05-22 at 8.12.55 AM

The warmest part of Greenland is buried in snow and ice!  Last week, it was deep in snow so some of it melted a few days ago but last night it refroze and here on my own mountain it will be below freezing tonight, too.  And it is nearly June!  Yes, we have warmer days now but every six days or so we have these ferocious cold waves.  ‘A year without summer’ doesn’t mean it is winter all the time, it means that is never gets above spring-type weather, not hot spells.  This prevents harvesting hay which requires drying in the sun before baling it and tomatoes don’t ripen and grape vines don’t produce fruit, etc.


What small melting in Antarctica is coming from is underwater volcanoes.  The rest of the continent like Greenland is frozen hard and research stations have to be moved due to too much ice meaning no stuff can be shipped in and since much of Canada is still frozen solid, what the hell is all this tripe about the Arctic melting?  It is all made up at this point due to the Paris meeting next winter to decide how to destroy modern civilization (ISIS is laughing to death about this) to stop ‘global warming’ which has stopped already for nearly two decades.


sunset borger

side picture begging boneEmail:



209 Greenhollow Rd

Petersburgh, NY 12138

Make checks out to ‘Elaine Supkis’

Click on the Pegasus icon on the right sidebar to donate via Paypal.


sunset borger




Filed under weather news

21 responses to “NASA Claims No One Can Predict Hurricane Season…NOAA Fails At This Prediction Business Too

  1. Elaine Supkis

    Over at WUWT, a wamist posted this screed: jaffa68 May 22, 2015 at 3:42 am
    Fools – banging on about “the benefits of warming” and “the benefits of increased CO2″ – you’re not kidding anyone, there are NO benefits to increased CO2, every effect it has on every process is bad, even if it appears to be good to non-climate-scientist simpletons.

    Some people might not die from cold but their now extended lives will be miserable because they’ll be a bit too warm, it might be kinder to just let them go. Similarly when crop yields increase due to extra CO2, climate scientists have determined through Simulated Horticultural Yield TEsting (SHYTE) computer-models that those crops might contain less ‘goodness’ so people would be much better off starving to death.


    It is most impressive to see how liberals are thinking: many of them actually hate humans. Hugely.

    The far right is the same, of course. Radicalism means wanting to kill most people just because they are annoying and disagree with various dearly-held ideas.

  2. Sunger

    Wattsupwiththat is just another discredited anti-science website that is devoted to smearing and confusing climate issues.

    Bloggers who can’t accept the findings of the scientific community use these sites to find doctored up sources to support their often religiously based confused thinking.

    “One of the world’s most prominent climate researchers publishing scientific papers that doubt humanity’s role in climate change has received at least $1.2 million from the fossil fuel industry to fund his research and salary, according to documents revealed this weekend. ”

    “Soon received hundreds of thousands of dollars each from ExxonMobil, the American Petroleum Institute, coal utility Southern Company, the Charles G. Koch Foundation, and other conservative groups, according to documents obtained by Greenpeace and the Climate Investigations Center, and spotlighted by the New York Times on Saturday. Over the last decade, Soon failed to disclose this funding in at least 11 of his scientific papers, likely violating ethical guidelines in eight of those cases.”

  3. vengeur

    LOL. The acronym for their computer model is shyte. “Similarly when crop yields increase due to extra CO2, climate scientists have determined through Simulated Horticultural Yield Testing (SHYTE) computer-models that those crops might contain less ‘goodness’ so people would be much better off starving to death.” Oh, the plants will contain less ‘goodness’. LOL
    He just gets done talking about scientific simpletons, then talks about plants having less nutritional Goodness.

  4. Petruchio

    @#1: I can remember a quote from of all people, Gordon Gecko in the movie, “Wall Street”. He was speaking with his protégé Bud (Charlie Sheen) when Gecko says, “That’s the thing about Anglo Saxons. They LOVE animals, but HATE people.”

  5. vengeur

    Nice try there. #4. Masquerading as a ( racist) white . So obvious you are just here to trash Elaine’s site as racist. Please go away. PHONY PHONY PHONY!!!!!


    ELAINE: I rarely ban people but he has been banned. Mostly due to being obscene pointlessly. Not to mention, deliberately off topic.

  6. vengeur

    You have to be wary and skeptical whenever our Bilderberg rulers tell us something is a threat. Saddam was a threat (LOL). Putin is a threat. Global warming is a HUGE threat. All bullsh*t to keep their Wallstreet money printing scam going.

  7. Elaine Supkis

    Sunger, WUWT is hardly ‘discredited’. I use my own eyes to see reality.

    It went below freezing last night…again! It is nearly June. The global warmists have failed time and again. If you bother to look at incoming data from Antarctica you can see with your own eyes that far from melting the ice there is thickening and growing.

    As is Arctic Ice and Greenland ice.

    Blind adherence to faulty information from the government agencies and ‘scientists’ who get money from the government which is under orders to lie about the weather is basically STUPID.

    It should now be obvious that they are lying. It can’t get more obvious.

    The western edge of Hudson Bay has finally melted but 80% of the water is still frozen solid and it is nearly June.

  8. @#4: And they’ve been exterminating people ever since they came over on the boat from the Continent back in the early 5th Century AD. Proven by archaeological evidence.

    Anglo-Saxons also like stabbing people in the back, like Woodrow Wilson’s LIHOP Lusitania event (just like 9/11): he forbade newspapers to print warnings from the German consulate that the Brits were shipping arms on their passenger ships. Only the Des Moines Register disobeyed.

  9. Well we already had one named Atlantic storm off the SE USA coast this year. Probably be the only one of the whole season, too.

    But the Pacific will have tons of them!

  10. Jim R

    Elaine, WUWT is TOTALLY discredited. It is an anti-science smear site.

    And all that CO2 has other bad effects you have always ignored.

    Of course, the financial fraudsters are wrong as well. If they really cared, they would support solar energy. Which does not match their effort to steal the world and rent it back to everyone.

  11. Jim R

    I just checked, and am glad to see that the UIUC Cryosphere Today site is back online. The website went through some changes recently, and I couldn’t find it for a while.

    If you look at this graph:

    You can see that the Hudson Bay melting season is just now getting underway. And if you look at the red ‘anomaly’ graph, you can see that the average ice coverage is just now getting back up to its average for the 30 year period they use as a basis. Five years ago, for example, there was a lot more melting, and a lot less ice by June. This year it looks more like the early ’80s.

    One thing that’s interesting to do with this website is to add together the Antarctic + Arctic ice coverage anomalies, and find that right now, the total ice area, which was falling five years ago, is now increasing, and maybe just a little above average.

    So we are headed for a climate correction back toward the mean. Which, as Elaine points out, is a glaciated mean. We are still a very long way from an ‘iceball earth’, however.

  12. Elaine Supkis

    Thank god for that!

    But since the sun seems headed towards a Maunder Minimum sunspot activity level, we will very likely have another Little Ice Age.

  13. Here’s a better graph:

  14. Elaine Supkis

    Both the beginning and the end of every Ice Age has been SUDDEN. Like ‘boom’. This is scary information. When ‘it’ happens, it will be painfully obvious: the snow in Canada will not melt at all. That is, it gets unpleasantly cool and then bang: there is no summer at all for Canada.

    One year! That is all it takes. And at the end of every Ice Age, the glaciers melted at a horrifically fast speed. Temperatures climb, globally, by more than 15 degrees F. In one year.

  15. Jim R

    If you look again at the Cryosphere site, there is another graph for Antarctica:

    You have to scroll to the bottom of the page to find it. These graphs do not completely characterize global weather by a long shot, but they do support Elaine’s assertion. If you add the current anomalies together, the Earth has an extra 0.564 million sq km of ice area. That is, the ice coverage right now is ABOVE the mean for the 30 year period used by the site as a base reference.

    This is significant, because you can see low spikes in your graph showing that the AGW cheerleaders could crow about their correctness in 2007, and then a record (for the 30 years) was set in 2012. Now, not so much.

    If the trend keeps going this way, the same positive feedback, knock-on effect that the AGW folks keep harping on, works in the OTHER direction. All that white stuff increases the planet’s albedo, and sunlight just bounces off into space. Making it cooler still . . .

  16. Elaine Supkis

    At Google News and the MSM, it is all the news that a very tiny part of the furthest outward flung edge of Antarctica closest to Chile…is melting a bit!!!

    This news is presented blatantly as ‘proof we are going to roast to death’ and just like the MSM ignored 90% of the cold weather news worldwide (even Africa is below normal this year!) and focuses only on whatever warm news there is (Los Angeles being the center of the universe).

  17. Lou

    ‘The western edge of Hudson Bay has finally melted but 80% of the water is still frozen solid and it is nearly June.’

    Did the Great Lakes thaw last summer? That is a sincere question. There was still ice in -June? on them.

  18. Jim R

    Here, Elaine, I thought you might like this. The speaker has compiled quite an impressive array of data. I personally think the “weather on Saturn” stuff is a lot of woo-woo, mostly because we have no clue what Saturn weather was like 300 years ago! But otherwise … impressive. Looks like real science.

    It was posted a year ago, but I just stumbled across it.

  19. Elaine Supkis

    ‘Climate change is real’ because for the last billion years, the climate ALWAYS changed to some degree. The super cold Ice Age/short sudden Interglacial’ stuff is recent, the last 2.5 million years.

    And that is ferocious climate change and we are still in this cycle of super cold/short sudden warming.

    300 years takes us to the middle of the last pulse of the Little Ice Age.

  20. Jim R

    He merely mentioned the outer planets, sort-of in passing. The rest of the talk was excellent.

    The talker (sorry, forgot his name) in this video asserts that a lot of actual scientists are jumping ship and abandoning political correctness, in the face of recent data from space as well as earthly weather reports.. (such as the ice area graphs above)

  21. Elaine Supkis

    The sun is still active. We had a nice burst of energy activity during the last month and this week another sun spot activity blast so…it is warm again!

    But astronomers see clearly the solar cycles weakening and know what this means: a cold cycle that may be quite long.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s