Hurricanes Hardly Happen In Hampshire: Global Warming ‘Climatologists’ Misunderstand Basic Statistics


While setting records for no hurricanes anywhere in North America, the global warmists who whine about all sorts of things are whining today that we are all going to die in hurricanes now due to ‘statistics’.  That is, ‘statistics show that hurricanes will hit major cities every 20 years’ which is obviously false.  Hurricanes happen under certain conditions and certainly are fewer in number if the Atlantic Ocean goes into its 30 year cold cycle as it is doing right now.  So the reality is, hurricanes happen in flurries, not regularly at all.  This doesn’t stop the hysterics who believe in global warming and who torture statistics and basic data to keep up the ideology of global warming which they renamed as ‘climate change’ and now ‘climate weirding’.

 

East Coast cities that experts say are overdue for ‘disastrous’ storm | Daily Mail Online

 

Cities on the Gulf and East coasts are overdue a ‘monster storm’ which could hit at any time, experts have warned.

 

The monster storms we fear are blizzards and Nor’easters here in New England.  We were hit with one blizzard after another this last winter and not one of the global warmist climatologists predicted this nor did they want to talk about this and when forced, claimed that the Warmest Year EVAH created massive blizzards across North America and Europe.  The 24 hour world record for snowfall happened in Italy, of all places, this winter, late in the winter and it barely made any news headlines at all, for example.

 

Meteorologists expect the likes of Tampa, Houston, Jacksonville and Daytona Beach to historically get hit with major hurricanes every 20 to 40 years.

 

Basically, every half century specific cities generally see a direct hit from a hurricane.  Since these come in clusters that depend on whether the Atlantic Ocean is experiencing a warm cycle, we can make very good educated guesses when these events will happen.  Instead of explaining this, the ‘climate’ crew at Universities are saying, ‘It has to happen VERY SOON due to it not happening in the past’ which is stupid.

 

It will not happen soon now due to the cold cycle and the chances of it happening in the next 15+ years is vanishingly small, not getting greater and greater.

 

But many have now gone between 70 and 100 years without a powerful hurricane or storm, according to data analyses by a hurricane professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology…’It’s ripe for disaster. … Everyone’s forgotten what it’s like.’

 

Since MANY go a century between storms this means the statistics used by these rather dumb professors is WRONG.  How can ‘many’ have a different rate than 20-30 years?  If we separate the ’20-30 years’ group from the main group which is much bigger then the rate of being hit is once every century or so!  This is how statistics work!  Didn’t this professor study statistics at some time before playing with statistics???

 

‘It’s just the laws of statistics,’ said Emanuel. ‘Luck will run out. It’s just a question of when.’…

 

This is so typical of global warmists seeking government funds for their funky studies!  This is NOT a ‘law of statistics’.  Over a 1,000 year span, the frequency of hurricanes has varied tremendously depending on how warm the Atlantic Ocean is.  I bet there are none during Ice Ages.  During the Little Ice Age which the warmists are toiling to erase, there were very few hurricanes, so few, the Spanish and Portuguese rarely encountered these otherwise, if it were like during the 1930’s, with many hurricanes, they would have given up on raiding the New World for gold and silver.

 

So we can go centuries with little to no hurricanes and centuries with plenty depending on temperature conditions of the atmosphere and ocean.  Hurricanes are not regular events, they are unusual events dependent on many forces coinciding including the strength of el Ninos which also disrupt the formation of hurricanes.  One might suggest that hurricanes happen when the Pacific Ocean is cooler and the Atlantic Ocean is in a warm cycle.

 

‘Hurricanes don’t give a darn what happened the last year, the last 10 years,’ Landsea said. ‘We could certainly have a major hurricane hit Tampa-St. Pete in 2015 but it doesn’t matter for this particular season that it hasn’t had a hurricane since 1921.’…For Ocean City, Maryland, and down the coast at Norfolk, Virginia, it’s been more than 160 years since they’ve been hit by a major hurricane. And while geography and currents make landfalls there rarer than Florida, it can happen and probably will someday, experts said.

 

It has been more than nine years since the U.S. was struck by a major hurricane – Superstorm Sandy did major damage but didn’t qualify meteorologically as a major hurricane. That’s a streak that is so unprecedented that NASA climate scientist Timothy Hall went looking to see if it could be explained by something that has happening with the weather or climate.


Super storm Sandy was a terrific, deadly, powerful and slow moving NOR’EASTER.  These can come in winter or summer and I have lived through a fair number of these and due to being slow, they pound the shoreline and flood the streams and rivers very badly.  Most hurricanes last only a few hours but high winds and surging oceans are deadly.  With Nor’easters, it is a meatgrinder and in winter can drop several feet of snow, for example.  Cold cycles in the Atlantic makes winter Nor’easters very dangerous like we saw this winter.

 

He found that big storms formed, they just didn’t hit America, coming close and hitting islands in the Caribbean and Mexico. The lack of hurricanes hitting the U.S. ‘is a matter of luck,’ Hall concluded in a peer-reviewed study.

 

I am particularly pissed at this professor claiming that hurricanes hitting is ‘a matter of luck’ and he and his ilk cannot predict any of this even though they DO this all the time, usually claiming hurricanes will savage us soon.  They claim they don’t understand why there are so very few hurricanes which is madness: it is getting COLD on this half of the North American continent overall, the Western half is warmer than usual and the Eastern half is colder and therefore, no hurricanes!  Duh!

 

Instead, these clowns claim in their press release they need MORE MONEY to study this simple fact and this makes it clear, they are saying all this because they want more money.  It is all about getting money from the Democrats who have latched onto global warming like a pit bull bitting a small child.  We can beat it on the head with blocks of ice and the grip will hold.

 

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20 Comments

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20 responses to “Hurricanes Hardly Happen In Hampshire: Global Warming ‘Climatologists’ Misunderstand Basic Statistics

  1. Sunger

    Elaine-

    When did any climate scientist anywhere claim to be able to accurately predict local weather conditions? References please. And that’s now what the field of study is about.

    If you are such a warrior for the truth, then you should be outraged by the politicization of the natural sciences by these GOP bums. How can you stand up for a bunch of jackasses who get up at a presidential campaign event and openly & proudly claim to the world that they do not believe in evolution?

    And you should be outraged that serious climate scientists do not have any kind of forum to speak to this issue. The great climate scientists are not even known to many Americans. Americans are being educated on this issue by the stupidest folks in history- US conservatives.

    I hear Foxnews, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage etc and lots of other GOP retards screaming and complaining about liberal scientific theories. But I can’t remember the last time I heard a talk by James Hanson of NASA, or Michael Man of Penn State.

    Come on Elaine- Stand up for a free society and let competent scientists have a proper forum to get their message out.

  2. Sunger

    Elaine said -“it is getting COLD on this half of the North American continent overall”

    Yes Elaine- it’s called the Jet Stream.

    And the entire climate science community is freaking out about what the new mutant jet stream is telling us about what’s coming.

  3. vengeur

    @Sunger : Of course, anybody who disagrees with global warming is a “retard”. So now it’s going to be called “climate weirding”? That is perfect because now we can call the fanatical, intolerant followers of this hysteria “CLIMATE WEIRDOS”.

  4. vengeur

    Sunger sez: “And you (Elaine) should be outraged that serious climate scientists do not have any kind of forum to speak to this issue.” LOL!!!!!!! You have got to be kidding me! It’s a g*ddam media barrage of Warmists, and STILL you feel persecuted and discriminated against and marginalized. But , of course , we that do not SIEG HEIL the warmist fanatics that are EVERYWHERE in the media are just “retards”. Your INTOLERANCE of opposing views AND SCIENCE is merciless.

  5. nclaughlin

    Since the purpose of a hurricane is energy transfer between latitudes, it makes sense that, as the Atlantic grows colder, there would be fewer hurricanes.

  6. Elaine Supkis

    Hurricanes need heat from the sun shining on the oceans and causing evaporation on the oceans which then become big storms.

    If sun spot activity fades, hurricanes are less likely. Very simple. If the Pacific warms and the Atlantic warms, we get hurricanes on both the east and west coasts.

    I remember the west coast hurricanes of the 1950s! Lots of fun! Rained like hell.

    If the Pacific COOLS and the Atlantic cools, we can tip into an Ice Age type condition pretty quickly if the sun decides to stop sun spot activity.

    The refusal in the last two decades to connect sun spots with weather infuriates me. My grandfather, Edison Pettit worked with Dr. Hubbard on this very issue way back in 1920.

  7. Jim R

    It’s dangerous to make predictions about the big oceanic storms. They are not powered by temperature, they are powered by temperature DIFFERENCES. Like any thermodynamic engine.

    So if you raise the temperature of everything, you do not get storms. Also if you lower the temperature of everything. It takes a difference in temperature.

    To have a storm, you need to have warmer water and colder upper level air. The water can be anywhere in its liquid temperature range. You also need calm air in between. If there is air moving at the intermediate levels, it will break up the storm pattern. When that happens, you have a lot of little thunderstorms instead of one big storm.

    So the bottom line is, you are almost always as well off consulting the Farmer’s Almanac as NOAA.

  8. Elaine Supkis

    Good lord, the global warming ‘scientists’ were SCREAMING that we would have more floods, hurricanes and HOT WEATHER and droughts, not blizzards, NO hurricanes, etc.

    Sheesh.

    Every prediction they made has been dead wrong at this point. Now they are claiming no one can predict weather at all. Which is the biggest of the lies.

    It is easy to see how the weather today is mirroring the weather during the previous cold cycle of the 1970’s.

  9. Jim R

    I didn’t say you can’t predict weather at all.

    I just said you should consult the Farmer’s Almanac.

    Was just thinking about that this morning. Looking out at the Burr Oak in the back yard …
    It is putting on another growth spurt this summer. No doubt triggered by the recent rain. Back in 2010, it seemed to know that a drought was coming. It made more acorns than ever before or since. I didn’t know at the time, but it somehow knew that an especially hard year was coming, and it needed to do something.

  10. Elaine Supkis

    Yes. The trees, the birds, the flowers, the insects all can sense what is happening. The common method is how much sun is shining and with what force.

  11. Ken

    Given that the sun is the main driver of hurricanes, how can the Pacific be getting so many, and the Atlantic so few, when the same sun is shining on both?

  12. Jim R

    I don’t think it is nearly so one-dimensional, this weather prediction system in living things. Of course the sun is the powerhouse, but there are also cycles of the moon, the seasons, prevailing wind, tides, atmospheric electrical activity, the magnetic field, etc. etc. etc.

    As to why you have more hurricanes in the Pacific or Atlantic, a lot of that is related to the path of the jet stream, and to the great network of ocean currents that carry the sun’s heat from one place to another.

    By comparison the moon, which lacks an atmosphere or oceans, is very one-dimensional. On the sunlit side, it gets very hot and on the dark side it gets very cold. At the lunar poles it stays cold. And because there is no atmosphere, and no greenhouse effect, the average temperature on the moon is colder than it is on earth. It is unable to hang onto any of that solar heat into the lunar night.

  13. Elaine Supkis

    The Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean both ‘turn over’ as the currents cause water to rise up from the depths or sink. These are ultimately driven by the sun but have different time periodic cycling due to the fact that the Atlantic is much smaller than the Pacific Ocean, for example.

    Secondly, Alaska blocks water from the North Pole but all the water in the North Pole flows into the Atlantic as does water off of Greenland and Canada. This is much colder whereas the Pacific gets water from the much warmer seas around India and eastern Africa.

  14. Lou

    ‘very prediction they made has been dead wrong at this point.’
    The News mentions ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Extreme Weather’.

  15. Jim R

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation

    Granted, wikipedia is a plastic source of information (the old meaning of plastic), but the diagram in that article is a good starting point.

    The turnover is driven by both changes in temperature and changes in salinity. The Pacific gets its cold bottom-water from the Antarctic ice shelves. Water that was chilled in the south makes its way, thousands of years later, to emerge and cause fog in San Francisco, for example. In the tropics, it rains into the ocean and dilutes it, and warms it. These warm waters meander about and find their way to the poles eventually.

    The “Gulf Stream” is part of this ocean current network, and it warms England and the Baltic, which would otherwise have a climate similar to Greenland.

    This ocean current system is a slow-changing one that stores and moves huge amounts of weather-affecting heat energy. It does not respond to a single solar flare or anything like that. However, the currents can meander and cause things like the “decadal oscillations” … without any change in the global temperature, the weather can change quite a lot in affected locations.

  16. Elaine Supkis

    ‘Affected locations’ are huge continental masses or half of the planet.

  17. Jim R

    Pfft, dry land only amounts to 1/3 of the surface or less. Habitable dry land considerably less — most of the land is too high or too cold or too dry or something…

    Humans are soooo picky about their little tiny slice of this planet.

  18. Elaine Supkis

    Too cold…HAHAHA. During the next Ice Age a third of all inhabitable/farmland will be like Antarctica.

  19. Thanks for finally writing about >Hurricanes Hardly Happen In Hampshire:
    Global Warming ClimatologistsMisunderstand Basic Statistics |
    Culture of Life News <Loved it!

  20. Lee

    I was suspicious when in 2015 I kept hearing about the intense El Nino
    that we are to see in 2016. The media fear mongered a bit too much.

    Maybe floods will happen.
    I am waiting.

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