El Nino Fades While Southern Ocean Around Antarctica Is Cold In Summer This Year

Screen shot 2016-02-13 at 7.51.03 AM
It is high summer in the Southern Hemisphere.  Note how the oceans surrounding Antarctica are unusually cold.  The cold spot in the Atlantic offshore of Europe has also caused cold weather just as Antarctica is cold.  The Gulf Stream is warm still and the Atlantic Ocean is warmer than the landmasses so blizzards are still rain over much of the ocean, only during this most recent cold push is there snow over the ocean as we see from today’s satellite map below:
 Screen shot 2016-02-13 at 8.04.14 AM

It is going way, way below zero where I live in Upstate New York.  We can see clearly how the up/down jet stream is bring super cold down to the eastern half of North America and the Siberian/Chinese half of Eurasia.  What is interesting to me is, the hot parts of South America which is ‘summer’ is going to be only 90 degrees F and Australia, 73 degrees F in Melbourne.  As per usual in El Nino years, the slither of land along the US West Coast is warm in winter.
Screen shot 2016-02-13 at 8.08.48 AM
The severe problem with averaging out world temperatures is, one cannot detect proto-Ice Age developments via averages.  What matters is, what size and how long super cold air masses are when they park over Hudson Bay which is happening this month.  Hudson Bay is the epicenter of all Ice Ages, not Brazil or Egypt.  This is why watching California is the last place one should watch if one is worried about ‘climate change’.  Places that were balmy during every Ice Age is useless as gages when one is worried about ‘climate change’ which is code for ‘we are roasting to death’.
Here is NOAA’s predictions for this month’s temperatures:
 Screen shot 2016-02-13 at 7.49.06 AM
The Great Lakes, which is being hammered by super cold, is supposed to be super warm!  These predictions also show that the entire spring and summer is going to be uniformly hotter and hotter and hotter as we roast to death.  I doubt this will happen.  A funny thing happened on the way to the Global Warming Summits:  Sea levels are rising slower than expected as dry land soaks up melting glaciers:

The agency analysed satellite measurements collected over the past decade to show the rate of sea level rise has slowed by 22 per cent – although the effect may be temporary…Between 2002 and 2014, it measured changes in gravity and therefore underlying changes in water storage.

 

The team of researchers, from Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University of California, Irvine, University of Bonn, Germany, and National Taiwan University, combined the satellite data with estimates of mass loss of glaciers to calculate the impact land water storage might have had on sea level change.

 

Their analysis suggests that during this timeframe, climate variability resulted in an increase of approximately 3.2 trillion tons of water being stored in land.

 

Wait!  All predictions of global warming babbled on and on how this will create LESS rain and we would have epic droughts (seems only California is having this so this must be everyone since so many ‘scientists’ live there).  Why don’t climate scientists live in Minnesota?  Siberia is very cold, too.  Move there.  Help Putin deal with too much warm weather in Russia.  Help Napoleon, too.

Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum | NASA: how did that happen?  Did all the warm water freeze there because it is getting hotter there?  And where are the ‘melting glaciers’?  Nearly all of Greenland and Antarctica are covered with deep ice which is building up, not melting.  Why is southern sea ice increasing? – Skeptical Science, a delusional website run by global warmists cultists who believe we are all going to roast to death but who have dropped ‘global warming’ for mushy wording.  They explain very carefully how ice can increase while it gets too warm.

 

What Antarctica’s Incredible “Growing” Icepack Really Means is another attempt by another fanatic to explain away the obvious.  All Ice Ages begin the same way and all end the same way and all Interglacials are much shorter than glaciation eras.  These follow a strong, severe basic pattern that varies only in the violence of the sudden warming/cooling cycles.  In the normal universe, when you turn up the heat, it heats up and when the heat vanishes, it gets colder and the severe hot/cold stuff happening to our planet began geologically recently and if it simply got colder and colder over time, or warmer and warmer, then all the cosmic and planetary forces are on an even keel but if it switches violently from one extreme to the other, we have to look at the source of the heat: the sun.

 

To show how stupid compared to farmers, these ‘climate scientists’ do not understand how cold works in fundamental ways:  Eurasian Snow Cover Variability and Links with Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Their Potential Use in Seasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions.pdf

 

Over a decade of research has allowed us to understand how variability in Siberian snow cover, mostly in October, can influence the weather in remote regions including the Eastern US and Europe months later. Below we describe the six-step model with a timeline that begins with the advance of Siberian snow cover in October and ends with more (less) frequent Arctic outbreaks during the winter in the Eastern US, Europe and East Asia associated with the negative (positive) phase of the large-scale telconnection pattern the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This link has been demonstrated for year-to-year variability and used to improve seasonal- timescale winter forecasts; however this coupling can also be shown to have influenced recent decadal-scale temperature trends.

 

It isn’t snow we need to look at though reflecting light back out of our atmosphere certainly does cool things down, too.  The coldest years are when there is LESS snow due to the severe cold.  And the ground freezes up if any snow is late in the season.  Anyone like myself who does backhoe work knows we must wait well into spring to dig due to the ground being frozen hard as a rock.

 

The presence of snow cover can increase the amount of sunlight reflected back into space from 20 to 80% (Cohen and Rind 1991). Also snow cover is a good insulator or a thermal blanket, preventing heat form the ground escaping into the atmosphere. These radiative properties of snow cover cool the atmosphere above the earth’s surface. The presence of snow cover can lead to much colder temperatures than the absence of snow cover.

 

So, a frozen tundra is warmer than thick snow cover?  HAHAHA.  If it snows and then freezes, the ground stays relatively unfrozen.  If there is, like this year in upstate NY, little snow on the ground when it goes to -16 F degrees as it will tonight, the ground is frozen like rock.  Climate scientists who have no idea how nature works shouldn’t be allowed to make computer programs that are based on ridiculous assumptions.

 

Lots and lots of snow=warming, a dry winter that is cold=cold winters.

 

sunset borger

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34 Comments

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34 responses to “El Nino Fades While Southern Ocean Around Antarctica Is Cold In Summer This Year

  1. Sunger

    Global Phytoplankton in Severe Decline

    Phytoplankton, the primary source of breathable air for human animals, is down 40% since 1950.

    http://survivalacres.com/blog/global-ocean-phytoplankton-in-severe-decline/

  2. Sunger

    Severe Warming in Arctic Areas

    “In January 2016, air temperatures close to sea level (at 925 hPa) were more than 6°C or 13°F above average across most of the Arctic Ocean, as NSIDC.org announced recenty. Moreover, daily average temperatures over many parts of the Arctic Ocean often exceed the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C or 36°F higher than in 1979-2000.”

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/02/methanes-role-in-arctic-warming.html

    ΩΩΩ

    ELAINE: Just like during the Ice Ages, tundra Alaska is warmer than New York!!! It is -17 below zero as I type this morning here in NY.

  3. John

    Sunger, you need to go peddle global warming nonsense somewhere else.

  4. ziff

    Sunger i’m kinda of suspicious of statements like 2 degree warmer than period x-y [ period x-y cherry picked] , just how do you measure warmer than? Wouldn’t a long historical average be better?

  5. ziff

    here in the bc lower rainland we have snow drops a frogs croaking.

  6. Jim R

    All that cherry-picking is why I like this graphic:

    You can see the whole sea ice trend here starting in 1979, when satellites started taking pictures of it. Climate science would predict a decline in ice area, which is clearly visible.

    The graphic also does a nice job of putting it in perspective. The blue line is the actual area of sea ice, and you can see that about 7 million sq km, net, melt and re-freeze every year. The bottom red line is the trend, showing +/- variation from the average, and you can see that we are now about 1½ million sq km low on ice. So it’s nowhere near all melting. Next year, the ice area could easily come back up to its decades-long average.

    There are much bigger global problems for us, as overpopulation, exhaustion of groundwater reserves, deforestation of the tropics, overfishing, and etc, etc. all conspire to insure that humans face hard times in the near future.

  7. Lou

    I dont claim to understand charts but for those who can

  8. Lou

    There are much bigger global problems for us, as overpopulation, exhaustion of groundwater reserves, deforestation of the tropics, over fishing etc, etc. all conspire to insure that humans face hard times in the near future.
    Yes. and had US hadnt immigration act of 1965, anchor baby statute etc,
    US population would be much lower and sustainable. So much for leftist ‘greens’,

  9. Lou

    Geo engineering. California drought may be due to aerial spraying that I see and EMS denies,

    predictions of global warming babbled on and on how this will create LESS rain and we would have epic droughts (seems only California is having this so this must be everyone since so many ‘scientists’ live there).

    ΩΩΩ

    ELAINE: Your cause and effect are bizarre. The ‘spraying’ storyline is for when it is raining and then you blame floods in California, the looney state, on that. But spraying with no rain happening is…Funny as all hell.

  10. vengeur

    Yes, they want to save the planet, while importing MILLIONS more people every year into a high consumption country like the US. A huge paradox that the environmentalists blithely IGNORE. Which tells me their global warming hysteria is total bullsh*t.

  11. vengeur

    My experience of many years in Alaska was that snowless years were always warmer than years with snowfall, especially if the snow came early. Years with late snowfall stayed warm much later. But we also had perma-frost, as opposed to NY.

  12. Christian W

    Justice Scala has died. Now if his replacement is a genuine liberal that could possibly be more important than the Presidential election for the domestic policies in the US.

  13. emsnews

    The north pole and south pole usually are opposite in ice conditions. When both see growing ice simultaneously, this means we are in an ice age.

  14. Jim R

    Elaine, see my graph from Cryosphere Today in comment #6. The wiggles in the top line show that the north and south poles do not quite exactly cancel. If you click through to the big chart, it ends at a minimum point.

    Therefore, in a normal year, we can expect the total ice area to climb from here. The chart is a few weeks behind, so it’s increasing already. Before 2016 is over, given that it is close to a normal year, we will have about 7 million sq. km. more polar ice than we have right now. Less than that would be cause for concern.

    And, as always, financial fraud will not affect it one way or the other.

  15. Lou

    Hows the weather in NY?
    Is it really 55 Below 0?

  16. Sunger

    Vengeur said “Yes, they want to save the planet, while importing MILLIONS more people every year into a high consumption country like the US.”

    This is total BS. Please provide facts.

    And stop watching the dumbed down propaganda from FoxNews.

  17. Sunger

    JimR said “Before 2016 is over, given that it is close to a normal year, we will have about 7 million sq. km. more polar ice than we have right now.”

    Your time is better spent reading real science.

    Trying to predict a hyper-complex phenomenon like climate change REALLY CANNOT be predicted by extending simple chart trendlines.

  18. Sunger

    Lou said “There are much bigger global problems for us, as overpopulation, exhaustion of groundwater reserves, deforestation of the tropics, over fishing etc, etc. all conspire to insure that humans face hard times in the near future.”

    That’s funny.

    ALL of these problems are directly related to climate change or human industrial activities.

  19. Sunger

    John said “Sunger, you need to go peddle global warming nonsense somewhere else.”

    Maybe you should learn to read.

  20. Jim R

    Sunger, that IS real science. And it is the kind of prediction that has worked since Stonehenge. Probably before that.

    Total polar ice is now at the annual minimum, and about 7 million sq. km. of new ice will form by the annual maximum. AGW will affect that amount, but only in a small increment per year.

    And the financial, political, and economic fraud proposed as a remedy, will affect that increment by … nothing at all.

  21. Sunger

    Elaine- it is hard to believe that you are the child of prominent scientists.

    For one thing, you would have met enough scientists growing up to understand the value and humanity of most scientists. A child brought up in such a home, meeting researchers and fellow scientists, would never grow up to be someone who constantly smears the entire scientific profession- like you do constantly. Your commments indicate that you are NOT familiar with science people or procedures.

    And NO scientist would ever proclaim, as you do, that all research except their own is illegitimate. You obviously do not follow any of the interesting climate studies as you apparently have no knowledge of this newer research. Scientists in the natural sciences- like your folks were(?) – have particulary high academic integrity and would never even consider teaming up with corrupt politicians to advance an agenda for wealth or power.

    And this stuff about another ice age beginning imminently. This is just your personal theory and is not credible to anyone who has followed the research. Even the top climate researchers wouldn’t claim that they can make predictions on another ice age.

    If your dad was here, he would give you a good hard spanking for promulgating smears and innuendo about science in the trolling manner that you do ie mixing climate studies with conspiracy theories etc.

    And he would give you another good hard spanking for being lazy and incurious in the face of all the new scientific info and studies on climate. He would expect you to diligently follow the upcoming research and educate yourself there before making uninformed public statements in the manner that you do.

    So there.

  22. Sunger

    JimR said “Sunger, that IS real science.”

    No it’s not.

    Here are a few factors that aren’t quantifiable from a simple ice chart-

    How do quantify the growing methane emissions in the arctic and sub- arctic areas?

    How do quantify the global cooling effect of industrial particulates and sulpher dioxide emssiions?

    How do you account for the crazy behavior of the jet stream and the disturbing polar vortex?

    How do you quantify growing CO2 emission from the Siberian tundra.

    How do you quantify methane emissions from marine areas such as off the US east coast?

    How do you predict the behavior of methane clathyrates under conditions of changing temperature and salinization?

    How do you predict the consequences of the extinction of key species? And HOW do know beforehand that they are key species?

    Just getting started…………..

  23. Jim R

    I’m not as worried about methane as I was five years ago. I do still think Dr. Katey W. Anthony is cute, however.

    The reason is this: we don’t really know much of the history of methane. How much of it leaked out during prehistoric times? Not that it isn’t a factor — Dr. Anthony’s work shows that the total amounts frozen into permafrost are comparable to all the CO2 we have already spewed, and may dwarf it. It’s hard to predict. On the other hand, methane has a short lifespan in the atmosphere. How much of it will melt, and how fast?

    As for the jet stream, the gulf stream, and etc., I would say that there is a bit of chaos in the system. More of it, perhaps, than has gone into the models. Maybe the chaos is from greenhouse gas forcing. I do not dismiss the models, they have definitely been getting better. And acidification is a real thing, it has measurably affected the pH of the oceans..

    But a couple of facts remain: Elaine is dead wrong, we are nowhere near a glaciation event, and sea ice levels are not increasing. Ice is dwindling. And this other fact: there is still a lot of ice left. The overall rate of ice melting is quite small compared to seasonal variations.

    My graph is real science because someone actually compiled it from real measurements, rather than going outside in pajamas on a clear winter night and saying “gee, it sure is cold!”

  24. Jim R

    And, Sunger, what do you propose to do about it? Kill off 6½ billion people? Ban cars?

    So far, everything that has been done by the government is clearly wrong. Trying to start WWIII? I’m not sure how that will turn out once the carbon calculations are done. Maybe if it kills those 6½ billion …

  25. vengeur

    @18: Somehow Sunger missed the memo that the US imports 700,000 LEGAL immigrants and easily more than 300,000 illegal immigrants every year, (yes Sunger, that DOES add up to a million). LOL. That does great work in reducing the US’s greenhouse gas production .You probably didn’t see that over at Daily Kos.

  26. emsnews

    And most of the hysterics ignore the Ice Age danger looming right over the horizon. It is -10 here right now and very, very cold for February. Record cold.

    Happens easily: all we need is for super cold to move from Hudson Bay downwards which it does with a vengeance during Ice Ages.

  27. Jim R

    And it is going to be hot in Texas this week.

  28. Lou

    Hot in California, -55 in NY.

  29. Lou

    that’s funny. ALL of these problems are directly related to climate change or human industrial activities.

    No, you are funny. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS ‘CLIMATE CHANGE.’
    There is Climate and nature is always in change.

  30. wellwell

    Elaine, I thought of you when I saw this amazing story about a mountain in upstate NY:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/upstate-ny-mountain-hits-110-degrees-wind-chill-summit-article-1.2531580

  31. emsnews

    Mt. Washington in winter is the mountain and it is infamous for high winds due to the pattern of jet stream activity is concentrated right over it!

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