For Those Watching the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Equatorial Pacific and the Decay of the El Niño | Watts Up With That? It is now totally obvious that we are heading straight into a powerful la Nina event. Today, NOAA changed their forecast for the future. They still have this summer super hot and they listed this last month as super warm for where I live in Upstate NY which was really a chilly, cold April, my poor daffodils were ravaged by cold, buds are finally forming on the trees only it will be 29 degrees F Wednesday and snowing all over the Western US, too. Grrr…still, NOAA thinks summer will be hot and I think it won’t be hot at all. Time to talk about la Nina who is knocking at the door already.
EL NIÑO EVOLUTION COMPARISONS FOR NINO REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
Using weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the four NINO regions, Figure 3 compares the goings on in 2015/16 with the 1997/98 event. While sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO4 and NINO3.4 regions peaked higher in 2015 than in 1997, the NINO1+2 and NINO3 regions lagged well behind the 1997/98 El Niño. This year, the sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO1+2 and NINO 3 regions are also decaying faster than in 1998.
Here is my comment and others at WUWT:
I went to the NOAA climate change page to see what is the latest research and news and…it all stops at 2009. Nothing since! How bizarre considering that our President is flying all over the planet with his entourage to talk about how flying jets and living in huge houses like the White House or the Vatican, is totally evil and should stop, now!
Climate Change & Global Warming | NOAA Climate.gov
Interesting fact about global cooling aside from the obvious blizzards: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – U.S. regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability
This research revealed that El Niño events that persist into boreal spring, such as in 2015-16, are associated with a relatively mild risk of tornado outbreaks over most of the country, except along the Gulf Coast and central Florida in February. In contrast, weak early-terminating El Niño events tend to boost the likelihood of tornado outbreaks in the Upper Midwest by up to 50% in May.
La Niña events that resurge in boreal spring tend to enhance the likelihood of tornado outbreaks in April, over widespread regions of the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Upper Midwest by up to 57%. In contrast, a La Niña transitioning to El Niño in boreal spring boosts the likelihood of tornado outbreaks in the South, particularly Kansas and Oklahoma, by up to 50% in April. Despite these connections, tornado outbreaks can occur in any season and almost anywhere in the U.S., regardless of the state of ENSO.
So far, not too many tornadoes but then, this is a peculiar year for weather. For example, we had a late winter but a late spring, too. Speak of the devil, here is a screen shot from today showing what is hitting the desert Southwest very hard: a COLD front!
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By the by, the NOAA website that does future predictions of rain and temperature athttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php has completely changed their predictions from just two weeks ago.
Back then, they had maps showing the US being super duper warm all year long except for a very tiny part of it and now, suddenly, they show nearly the entire northern tier colder than normal starting next fall and all the way through the rest of the year.
This change is due to the collapse of the present el Nino and they know that the la Nina will be cold and last a year or so.