NOAA Changed Longrange Forecast To Drastically Colder

Screen shot 2016-04-25 at 9.44.37 AM

For Those Watching the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Equatorial Pacific and the Decay of the El Niño | Watts Up With That? It is now totally obvious that we are heading straight into a powerful la Nina event.  Today, NOAA changed their forecast for the future.  They still have this summer super hot and they listed this last month as super warm for where I live in Upstate NY which was really a chilly, cold April, my poor daffodils were ravaged by cold, buds are finally forming on the trees only it will be 29 degrees F Wednesday and snowing all over the Western US, too.  Grrr…still, NOAA thinks summer will be hot and I think it won’t be hot at all.  Time to talk about la Nina who is knocking at the door already.

 

EL NIÑO EVOLUTION COMPARISONS FOR NINO REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

Using weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the four NINO regions, Figure 3 compares the goings on in 2015/16 with the 1997/98 event. While sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO4 and NINO3.4 regions peaked higher in 2015 than in 1997, the NINO1+2 and NINO3 regions lagged well behind the 1997/98 El Niño. This year, the sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO1+2 and NINO 3 regions are also decaying faster than in 1998.

 

Here is my comment and others at WUWT:

 

By the by, the NOAA website that does future predictions of rain and temperature athttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php has completely changed their predictions from just two weeks ago.

Back then, they had maps showing the US being super duper warm all year long except for a very tiny part of it and now, suddenly, they show nearly the entire northern tier colder than normal starting next fall and all the way through the rest of the year.

This change is due to the collapse of the present el Nino and they know that the la Nina will be cold and last a year or so.

  • “… completely changed their predictions …

    Seems this is SOP. Translation: They just make stuff up.

  • I expect this coming La Nina to last into 2018. I also think that their is a strong probability for a cooler than normal summer, here in No California.

I went to the NOAA climate change page to see what is the latest research and news and…it all stops at 2009.  Nothing since!  How bizarre considering that our President is flying all over the planet with his entourage to talk about how flying jets and living in huge houses like the White House or the Vatican, is totally evil and should stop, now!

 

Climate Change & Global Warming | NOAA Climate.govScreen shot 2016-04-25 at 9.51.31 AM

Interesting fact about global cooling aside from the obvious blizzards:  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – U.S. regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

Screen shot 2016-04-25 at 7.48.13 PM

 

This research revealed that El Niño events that persist into boreal spring, such as in 2015-16, are associated with a relatively mild risk of tornado outbreaks over most of the country, except along the Gulf Coast and central Florida in February. In contrast, weak early-terminating El Niño events tend to boost the likelihood of tornado outbreaks in the Upper Midwest by up to 50% in May.

 

La Niña events that resurge in boreal spring tend to enhance the likelihood of tornado outbreaks in April, over widespread regions of the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Upper Midwest by up to 57%. In contrast, a La Niña transitioning to El Niño in boreal spring boosts the likelihood of tornado outbreaks in the South, particularly Kansas and Oklahoma, by up to 50% in April. Despite these connections, tornado outbreaks can occur in any season and almost anywhere in the U.S., regardless of the state of ENSO.

 

So far, not too many tornadoes but then, this is a peculiar year for weather.  For example, we had a late winter but a late spring, too.  Speak of the devil, here is a screen shot from today showing what is hitting the desert Southwest very hard: a COLD front!

Screen shot 2016-04-25 at 8.00.10 PM

 


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11 Comments

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11 responses to “NOAA Changed Longrange Forecast To Drastically Colder

  1. Jim R

    Last La Niña year, Texas was extremely hot and dry. Right now it is cool and rainy. Highland Lake reservoirs are full again.

    We shall see…

  2. Melponeme_k

    The study of meteorology is completely destroyed by the elites due to their greed for taxes on nothing. And this discipline will NEVER come back, not in our lifetimes.

    OT

    It looks as if Chernobyl is handled little better than Fukushima. Workers still cleaning Chernoybl radioactive waste while dressed in flimsy engineer overalls and medical masks.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3557634/Suicide-squad-risk-lives-Chernobyl-DAY-trying-seal-killer-radiation-nuclear-disaster-site.html

  3. Jim R

    Back when it happened, Chernobyl was part of the Soviet Union. They did make a credible effort to remediate it, burying the hot stuff in tons of sand and lead and borax. And they sacrificed hundreds of soldiers to that effort. Their ‘temporary’ sarcophagus was supposed to be covered by a more long lasting permanent shelter, but that project never got done.

    The Japs are still dithering around trying to build an ‘ice wall’, like that has any permanence to it. At least the Russians used concrete.

    Now, Chernobyl is part of the Ukraine, essentially a failed state. So it is doubtful that they will accomplish anything, until and unless the Ukraine returns to the RF…

  4. Rob

    Another sad story of thinking your dog is so harmless:

    http://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2016/04/26/dog-kills-3-day-old-baby-pkg.kfmb

    I told someone in the park to get their dog on a leash and they got aggressive, literally coming at me.

  5. Lou

    I think I posted that story in one of EMS’s dog threads.
    Pits -Staffs [I am told they are the same, genetically] are attacking the wrong people regularly.

  6. Lou

    The feminists at MJ—- are really BIG gov aficionados–
    Should we fight global warming by taxing meat? – Mother Jones
    Should We Fight Climate Change By Taxing Meat? … have previously advocated eating less meat to tackle global warming. … “To suggest a tax is a better way to …
    [Search domain http://www.motherjones.com] motherjones.com/tax-meat-cut-methane-emissions Tax Meat to Reduce Methane Emissions and Global Warming … One way to mitigate climate change would be a tax on meat, … Global hoax warming is a way to tax us …
    [Search domain ecowatch.com] ecowatch.com/2013/12/26/meat-tax-reduce-methane-emissi…
    ‘Tax meat’ to fight global warming, say scientists (From …
    GOVERNMENTS should out a tax on meat to help fight against global warming, Scottish scientists have said. A report into people’s eating habits around the world found …
    [Search domain http://www.heraldscotland.com] heraldscotland.com/news/14100473._Tax_meat__to_fight_global_…
    No way! They want to TAX red meat to fight global warming
    I see farming as a career in my future…and if i want to eat on the cheap. Denmark is considering proposals to introduce a tax on red meat, after a government think …

  7. DeVaul

    When the NOAA predicted that this April or last March was way above normal or the hottest yet on record, my first thought was that the NOAA had made this prediction on data they had deliberately altered over a year ago while also destroying the original data so that it could never be recovered.

    From Elaine’s article of 06/27/14:

    “Global warming specialists inside the scientific community are buzzing about revelations first made Friday, which show how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official graph of historical U.S. surface temperatures records has been quietly altered for years.

    Government scientists, it is alleged, have been tweaking some of the world’s most oft-cited climate records by replacing actual temperature readings in the United States, Iceland and Australia with hypothetical numbers derived from computer models.

    The result has been a distorted view of temperature trends, according to a blogger who first assembled the evidence, changing a steady temperature decline into an ominous-looking warming.”

    Any prediction the NOAA makes now based on “previous data” is invalid per se since they destroyed the original data accumulated for over a hundred years by individual temperature readings recorded by real people in the US.

  8. emsnews

    Correct, this is a conspiracy to wreck vital data. The US, for example, was the hottest ever (in the previous 500 years) in 1932. We have not been so hot since, especially not in the last decade.

    They fixed this fact by deliberately lowering the temperatures of the 1930’s and the hot 1950’s which I remember very well due to going to church and watching the minister and people praying for colder weather and rain while it was broiling hot outside.

    Then, it happened! HAHAHA. We got rain and cold in amazing amounts starting in 1964 and it got so cold by 1974, I had to use fur blankets in Tucson so I wouldn’t get very cold at night in my little house built during the 1890 hot cycle (the house was very flimsy when it came to cold weather).

  9. Lou

    Portland– The Portland School Board

    The school board of Portland, Oregon, has passed a resolution banning any books that express any skepticism about climate change alarmism:

    The Portland Public Schools board unanimously approved a resolution this week that bans textbooks and other teaching materials that deny climate change exists or cast doubt on whether humans are to blame.

    It is unacceptable that we have textbooks in our schools that spread doubt about the human causes and urgency of the crisis,” Lincoln High School student Gaby Lemieux said during board testimony Tuesday. “Climate education is not a niche or a specialization, it is the minimum requirement for my generation to be successful in our changing world.”

    Bill Bigelow, editor of the ReThinking Schools online magazine and co-author of a textbook on environmental education, worked with several environmental groups to present the resolution, the Tribune reported.

    “A lot of the text materials are kind of thick with the language of doubt, and obviously the science says otherwise,” Mr. Bigelow said. “We don’t want kids in Portland learning material courtesy of the fossil fuel industry.”

    He took particular issue with teaching materials that used iffy language when discussing climate change, like “might,” “may” and “could.”

    I’ve highlighted this last sentence because it means that Portland schools cannot use the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on climate science, because those reports use the words “might,” “may,” and “could” throughout, along with the term “uncertain” or “uncertainty” (both of which appear hundreds of times in the IPCC reports on climate science).

    This, for example, from the summary of the 2013 IPCC climate science report:

    The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural ——–

    Oh, the tolerance of liberals.

  10. emsnews

    Yes, they actually forbade scientific debates in schools. This ham-fisted methodology is why public schools are dying. The elites never ever sent their own children to public schools, for example.

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